After yet another accumulator failed to land at the weekend, it got me thinking about simply backing one team each week - a midtable team who's odds each week are often very polarised. I've hunted out a few value bets this season, namely Watford away at Southampton (6/1) and Burnley away at Everton (6/1). However, it got me wondering - how much would I have won (or lost) had I backed a single team each week, and my chosen team was us. Well, I did the math based on the odds we were at kick off, and if you'd have put £10 on us to win every single game this season, you'd be...in PROFIT to the tune of....£6! Betting on Burnley each week to win, would've left you with a profit of £163.50 so far.
The profit lies in an unfancied team doing well, or at least OK. Both of the examples you've given are exactly that. I would imagine the majority will produce a loss.
A quick look at the fixtures for some value tomorrow see's Swindon Town leap out (away at Grimsby Town). They are currently 2.45 (£10 would return £24.50). They are the form team away from home, against a Grimsby Town team who haven't scored in their last 5 at home but are somewhat draw specialists.
Interesting point, one that’s definitely worth looking at. Are you going to back us every week from now on then? I’ve wasted so much money over the last two seasons backing absurd RequestABet scenarios and “nailed on” accumulators that I too think it’s time for a change. I read a blog post a while back about a guy who backs 4+ goals or something similar for his team every week. He argued that it roughly came in enough each season to comfortably cover the expense and to provide a decent return.
Generally, yes. Unfancied is however a very subjective term in football, as you'll no doubt be aware. For example, were Burnley unfancied away at Everton? Maybe, but not to me they weren't. They were doing well away from home against an Everton team who have been terrible and yet Burnley were priced at 6/1. I think we should use this thread (those that like a flutter) to post up any value bets that have been identified - could be quite fun and interesting. We could even make a game out of it - some theoretical gambling to see who can earn the most theoretical money.
I have an acquaintance who bets every week on his team to score 4 goals away from home. Has done for 4 years. Hasn’t happened often but often enough to show a reasonable profit.
Shrewsbury away at Bury (2.20) and Exeter away at Crawley (2.40) also stand out. A treble on Shrewsbury, Exeter and Swindon would return £130 (or thereabouts) and represents good value for me.
The only value bet I know is to use the weekly free bet clubs offered by the likes of coral, paddy power, red bet etc. Bet the required amount one week, lay the bet at Smarkets or Betfair on a match with similar odds at both bookies so you more or less break even, do the same with the free bet the following week and guarantee a profit whatever the outcome. It's betting but it's not gambling because you win whatever happens.
Yeah, I did that for a while but it takes up a lot of time and effort if you're keen on doing it with some intensity and making a really nice profit. I did it for around 3 weeks, and it was taking up around 4 hours of my day, researching the bets etc. You also need a lot of money in your BetFair account to lay off the bets. I made around £400 in 3 weeks. A few of my friends have been doing it for 12+ months, and have made in excess of £4000. If you've got the time and patience, then there genuinely is money to be made.
Shrewsbury must be the most profitable team this season then. Largely unfancied at the start of the season. The shortest price they've been to win a game all season is evens. Not a single odds on. A tenner on each league game would leave you with a profit of £283.87 at the minute. Add another £35.44 profit for cup games too (although they've been huge odds on in a couple of those vs Aldershot and WBA u23s)
I’m a small bets Betway customer and never make any money, but it’s fun trying. However......at the weekend I spotted their “pick a team from each division to score first “. FREE BET. Possible winnings £25,000!! I got all four so am waiting to hear how much I’ve won. They said notification within 48 hours. I’m still waiting. Anyone else tried this?
If you got all 4 correct, and nobody else did, then you win £25k. If others got it right, then you'll split the cash accordingly. Good luck, hope it's a big one!
Yes I understand the concept but the fact that I have heard nothing so far makes me wonder if it’s too good to be true. I’ve never won more than a few pounds because I always bet small so the prospect of winning big just makes me a bit suspicious . If there is no contact from them in the morning I’m going to call their help number. The teams I chose were Liverpool, Norwich, Portsmouth and Luton. I couldn’t believe it when they all came up!
Maybe slightly off topic, but it's betting so I'm going to jump in If anyone saw the Italy vs Sweden game you would have seen the ref was giving out cards all over the show - at one point I'm sure he nearly tried to book one of the managers! Anyway, he's reffing tonights Besiktas game against Porto and a quick glance at some of the odds shows Over 4 cards is 5/6. This is his last few matches he's ref'd: http://us.soccerway.com/referees/antonio-mateu-lahoz/46239/ Good luck!
Well....it seems like I misunderstood the game. I thought that if you picked a match from each division and then predicted who would score first IN THAT MATCH then you would win. Not so - apparently you have to choose which team in each division gets the first goal IN THE WHOLE DIVISION. Someone obviously scored before my picks. Dammit, was looking forward to that £25,000