I think it will take at least as many points (with better GD) as the team finishing 3rd from bottom.... I'm wasted on here.
For us we need to ensure we can pick up somewhere around 7 or 8 wins with half a dozen draws but we can't afford to lose more than 6 I'd say.
At the current rate, the teams will finish as follows: - Fowls: 53 QPR: 53 Reading: 50 Barnsley: 46 Bolton: 44 Hull: 42 Burton: 42 Birmingham: 41 Sunderland: 39 (hee hee!). Unless all of the bottom 6 have an upturn in their form, it looks like a really low survival total to me.
I seem to remember Peterborough going down with 54 points a few years ago One N Clough was the manager which probably explains his caution I'd be surprised if anyone went down with 50 points this season - its usually enough and baring several teams all having much better run ins I think it will do this year as well
Teams towards the bottom of the table traditionally always play better towards the end of the season. Looking through the trapdoor and all that.
Sorry getting my sons of great managers mixed up - it was Fergies young un. Apologies to Nigel for the confusing him with that pr*ck
8 wins and 6 draws and 6 defeats from our remaining 20 games would get us to 56 points we wont need that many for safety It depends on the combination of wins and draws but I recon we need to get to 50 which is 24 points from 20 games (1.2ppg) 6 wins and 6 draws would do it - or better still 8 wins would be enough. Tall order to get many points in the next 4 games though with Wolves and Fulham home and Villa away and QPR who are useless but loftus road is a Jinxed ground for us. I'd take 4 points from those 4 games in a heartbeat
We play some big teams in bolton reading and burton at home before the end of the season. Need 9 points...
Thought I'd work the figures out again after today's results: - QPR: 56 Forest: 55 Millwall: 53 Fowls: 53 Reading: 49 Barnsley: 46 Bolton: 43 Hull: 43 Burton: 41 Birmingham: 39 Sunderland: 37 (hee hee!).
It would be more comforting if it were "smaller" teams below us. These larger beasts have a habit of making more of an effort once their players realise that League 1 is an income graveyard.