Pension projections - anyone know what they are based on

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Farnham_Red, Mar 9, 2018.

  1. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    33,725
    Likes Received:
    22,899
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Farnham
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Both I am mrs F have noticed in our annual pension statements a worrying estimated pension figure

    For every £100 000 in our funds the estimated annual taxable pension we can expect to draw is around £2,000

    This makes no sense even with no interest on the capital we could live for 50 years before we run out based on those figures - in fact we can easily get 2% interest and keep the capital for ever. Can anyone explain where this absurdly low figure is coming from
     
  2. Burgundy Red

    Burgundy Red Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 27, 2008
    Messages:
    4,422
    Likes Received:
    1,924
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Ninja (retired)
    Location:
    Somewhere between Heaven and Woolworths
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Check the small print but 2 possible factors: that £2k might be in today's terms so more actual cash relative to your projected final fund value and it's likely to be indexed linked too so increasing each year after retirement age. Still seems low though.
     
  3. PLOBBY

    PLOBBY Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2013
    Messages:
    4,230
    Likes Received:
    3,079
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    keep yer nose out
    Location:
    Cave
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Just draw it all out in one lump sum and go enjoy yourselves. It's your money at the end of the day .
     
    Redstar likes this.
  4. Runner

    Runner Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2017
    Messages:
    1,182
    Likes Received:
    1,071
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Software developer
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Don't you pay tax over anything more than 25% taken as a lump sum?
     
  5. manxtyke

    manxtyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2011
    Messages:
    1,314
    Likes Received:
    73
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Occupation:
    im not a real welder
    Location:
    isle of man
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Guesswork
     
    Tekkytyke likes this.
  6. Ged

    Geddiswasguud Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2014
    Messages:
    4,252
    Likes Received:
    3,867
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Annuity rates (pension income) are based ..where the trustees invest....mainly on intetest rates and long term guilts....
    If you are talking about company (defined benefit or defined contibution)....a decentish rate of return is about 4%.
    You also have to factor in people living too long and poor return in the investment as to why the returns are comparively low.
    Dont forget the figures they provided you with may be linked to rpi so that the money you receive actually goes up each year.Ooh and dont forget thst the money is classed as earned income (after your tax free lump sum) and so will be taxed at source before you recieve it. ...at your marginal rate.You have your annual allowance to factor in too....so not all of it may be taxed.
    Hope this helps
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  7. tobyornottoby

    tobyornottoby Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2012
    Messages:
    5,896
    Likes Received:
    1,451
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    If it's a private pension you draw what you like, so "expect to draw" doesn't seem to make sense.
     
  8. Sta

    Stahlrost Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2006
    Messages:
    21,132
    Likes Received:
    13,071
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    None
    Location:
    Dodworth
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley Dark
  9. Tek

    Tekkytyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2005
    Messages:
    7,369
    Likes Received:
    4,609
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Italy
    Style:
    Barnsley Dark
    Ouja boards?

    Slightly diffferent type of investment I know but.....
    We had a 25 year endowment policy to cover the mortgage and kept getting the green 'on target' letter but, of course, the maturity value depended not just on the accrued guaranteed annual bonus but also the additional terminal bonus which is variable and ... Guess what.?? The year ours matured the terminal bonus was particularly low so it came up short. As it was only a few hundred pounds off its target and we had long since converted to a capital and interest mortgage the money was just a bonus anyway but it was still annoying.
    We were bombarded with the mis-selling endowment spam mails but couldn't be bothered as the amount was not worth the bother pursuing. Still, it showed that the so called green letter safeguards to protect people with endowment mortgages on interest only repayments were 'anything but' as some on tight budgets could still have found themselves short when the mortgage term expired in spite of the green letters telling them all was OK and they were on target.
    Pension funds incidentally are subject to govt policy anyway. Without getting political re nationalising privatised industries could have a major impact on future pension fund yields. That is just one example of why pension yeilds are hard to predict long or even medium term. Pension managers seem to do OK though re their remuneration!
     
  10. Arc

    Archerfield Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2013
    Messages:
    2,324
    Likes Received:
    5,953
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Archerfield, Scotland
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Here's my thoughts for you.

    Given that you are referring to a pension pot I assume that you are in a defined contribution scheme. This means that the pension you receive is wholly dependent on the value of your pot at retirement and how you choose to take your pension. This is in contrast to a defined benefit pension scheme where the amount you receive is determined by, typically, years worked and your salary. Under the defined contribution approach you carry all the risk whereas with defined benefit the risk is borne by your employer.

    The illustration of converting cash into pension is making the assumption that at retirement you will choose to turn your cash in to a pension by buying an annuity with an insurance company. That used to be compulsory but you have the option of doing drawdown which means you can take amounts when you choose (55 and over) and can take 25% of the value tax free.

    The conversion rate of 50:1 does look very poor but is only an illustration and will need to read the small print. If you are buying a fixed pension (not increasing in line with inflation or a fixed % each year) conversion rates for a 55 year old would be approximately 25:1 for an annuity with this falling to 38:1 for a pension with fixed 3% increases.

    Buying an annuity does look expensive but this, in the main, reflects the fact that safe investments which insurers have to hold to back this type of payment, Gilts are only yielding circa 2% pa.
     
  11. Dja

    Django Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2013
    Messages:
    10,515
    Likes Received:
    6,961
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    The best thing to do is completely ignore the projections they give you, they have to be ultra cautious on them.

    Once you finish your current jobs or retire seek financial advice & get them invested in better performing funds.

    If invested properly a £100k pot can last a long time, ideally even though you’ll be drawing on it in retirement you’ll still be making money as it’ll remain invested in drawdown.

    So for example you might be drawing £800 a month but if the funds performing at 5% it’d only go down a couple of thousand a year due to your withdrawals as the rest of the pots performing well.

    And 5% is probably been cautious. 2015 aside anyone invested in average risk funds or higher should’ve been earning 10% plus in 13, 14, 16 & 17.
     
  12. Brush

    Brush Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2005
    Messages:
    15,427
    Likes Received:
    14,026
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Ex-IT professional
    Location:
    Swadlincote, South Derbyshire
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Probably based on Nostradamus.....
     
  13. Dan

    DannyWilsonLovechild Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2011
    Messages:
    14,163
    Likes Received:
    17,210
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley
  14. Carlycu5tard

    Carlycu5tard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2014
    Messages:
    947
    Likes Received:
    358
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Location:
    Wombwell
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    [


    What the illustrations don't show you are the fees. Which are about 50%.

    Look at the illustrations again and halve the value of you pension pot for what the scheme puts in it's own pocket. Then work out what you could do yourselves with an isa etc. Then it begins to make more sense.
     
  15. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    33,725
    Likes Received:
    22,899
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Farnham
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Thanks all - Not planning on retiring for a few years yet but it does seem those projections are very conservative. Will worry about it a lot more in a few years time when I am more seriously thinking about retiring . Oh and to answer @Archerfield 's question - yes this is for defined contributions
     
  16. Til

    Tilertoes Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    4,136
    Likes Received:
    2,827
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Doesn’t matter to me. I’ve been a self employed construction worker for years with a private pension so I expect to die at work at 87 years old
     
  17. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2011
    Messages:
    8,276
    Likes Received:
    6,689
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    The interface between business and technology
    Location:
    Brampton by the Sea
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    My entire pension plan is to sell up and relocate to the cheapest safe country at the time of retirement. Current favourites include Latin America, Albania, Bulgaria and Czech Republic (Thanks Brexiteers!), or possibly some of the cheaper Asian countries - Laos, Cambodia or Vietnam.
     
  18. Tek

    Tekkytyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2005
    Messages:
    7,369
    Likes Received:
    4,609
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    Italy
    Style:
    Barnsley Dark
    good mate lives in Cambodia. Great bars, local music scene, dirt cheap hotels, accomodation food and restaurants.Lovely people. Hoping to go in the next few years
     
  19. RedKestrel

    RedKestrel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2017
    Messages:
    1,622
    Likes Received:
    365
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    TAL
    Location:
    Danelagen
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Isn't that were Gary Glitter got busted .. ??
     
  20. Farnham_Red

    Farnham_Red Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    33,725
    Likes Received:
    22,899
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    Farnham
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Nope that was Vietnam
    Cambodia threw him out once his past history came to light
     

Share This Page