FAO orsenkaht

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by granty the red, May 21, 2018.

  1. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    1.50 Daarik (3/1) LAST of 10

    2.20 Ibraz (11/8) WON 6/4

    2.50 Mashaheer (100/30) WON 4/1


    A little bit of extra juice yesterday for those who got ‘best odds guaranteed’. My first instinct was not to play today but on further scrutiny, three of the races at Kempton tonight look interesting. This is all weather though, so things should be kept modest.


    6.25 JAWWAAL won a 16 runner Class 5 Novice event at Lingfield last time, recording a respectable time performance in the process. He carries a 7 lb penalty for that win in this Auction event but that is slightly offset by him being eased in grade to Class 6 here. With Jim Crowley and Trainer John Gosden (surely he must soon become ‘Sir John’?) in great form I think this one makes some appeal for win purposes, even at a shortish price of 5/4. If you can get a better price than that, all well and good.

    6.55 Only two of these have run before and Richard Hannon’s Mersey did quite well in finishing second. On balance though, I think this could well go to one of the newcomers and the one the market is screaming is La Pelosa, from the in-form Charlie Appleby stable with James Doyle on board. So much so that he is showing at Evens with Bet365 (Oddschecker is down as I write this). That is a bit short for win purposes, so I will combine him in a treble as set out below. Also in the race is a debutant for Sheikh Hamdan namely ATWAAR, trained by Ed Dunlop. This one is by the new sire Slade Power, who was responsible for a first time out winner in Strings Of Life at Newmarket from just six runners to hit the course up to now. It would be wrong to say that Ed Dunlop is in blinding form at present, and Atwaar has an unfavourable outside draw. But the sire is interesting and Crowley’s presence may just hint at some modest level of expectation. He is 14/1 with Bet365 and may well drift on course for those able to obtain ‘best odds guaranteed’ concessions. Worthy of a very speculative quarter point win bet, in my book.

    7.25 I was very tempted by DASH OF SPICE (5/2) here. This one ran a cracker on his seasonal return when finishing second in a very competitive Class 2 handicap at Epsom last month. He is 1 lb higher here, but is eased to Class 3 and has the assistance of champion jockey Silvestre De Sousa and he looks to have potential for further improvement. But there are some very experienced handicappers in this race and another potential improver in Buzz, so I shall stick to combining him with Jawaal and La Pelosa in a hopeful treble.

    So my suggested plays are: Jawaal (6.25) 1 point win at 5/4 or better; Atwaar (6.55) 0.25 point win at 14/1 or better; Jawaal (6.25)/La Pelosa (6.55)/Dash Of Spice (7.25) 0.25 Treble at 14.75/1. That is a very modest outlay of 1.5 points, which shouldn’t make too much of a dint in the profits if they all bomb for anyone who followed me in on Monday and Tuesday!
     
    tobytyke1999 likes this.
  2. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    I got best odds guaranteed on yesterday’s winners. Had a go on tonight’s too. Cheers
     
  3. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    By way of early warning, BLOWN BY THE WIND looks huge at 4/1 for the 6.35 at Sandown tomorrow evening. This looks like the third best two year old seen out this season.
     
  4. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Anything for the 7.55 at Kempton mate?
     
  5. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Nah. Unfathomable race for me!
     
  6. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Got a placed horse in an each way bet. I’m looking at the 6.00pm at sandown tomorrow.. I’m heading towards STORMINGIN.. Do you see anything else? Sorry to keep bugging ya lol, but you know a lot more than I do
     
  7. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Well that's Ryan Moore riding for his Dad, Gary, which is always a combination to be respected. The danger could possibly be What A Welcome, but I have to tell you this isn't the sort of race I would be playing in. I'd be more interested in Blown By Wind (6.35) and Weekender (7.35). I may post more on these (and others) in the morning.
     
  8. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Ok mate, thanks. I have already put a few quid on Blown by wind.
     
  9. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Jawaal (6.25) 1 point win at 5/4 or better WON 1/2
    Atwaar (6.55) 0.25 point win at 14/1 or better NON-RUNNER
    Jawaal (6.25)/La Pelosa (6.55)/Dash Of Spice (7.25) 0.25 Treble at 14.75/1 LOST [1st,1st,2nd]

    1 point profit on the night provided you got the 5/4 on Jawwaal. Tad unlucky with the treble; Dash Of Spice pulled too hard early on and Silvestre had no choice but to restrain him, which cost the horse more ground than he lost by (1.25 lengths).

    I seem to have set myself something on here! Anyway, today:

    1.30 Goodwood MUTAWAFFER Terrific debut run behind Blown By Wind at Ascot; a running-on 4th in a very quick time. A bet at Evens (1/1).
    4.55 Goodwood SACRED PATH Galileo filly who is entered in the Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot. That race is only four weeks today away, and she'd need to be winning this lowly Class 5 maiden to even be considered for that, so I expect her to be pretty fit for her debut. John Gosden (will he be 'Sir John' after the Queen's Birthday Honours on Saturday?) had a two year old debutant win yesterday and has had a cracking 18 winners from 56 runners (32%) in the last 14 days. 2/1, but 5/2 is available with Hills as I type.
    6.35 Sandown [ITV4] BLOWN BY WIND Either I have got this race wrong, or Blown By Wind is an absolute knockout bet at 4/1 (9/2 with Hills). Winner of the aforementioned (see Mutawaffer) Class 3 Novice race at Ascot over this 5F trip on this ground in a fast time. At this point he looks the third best two year old seen out all season, and the first two aren't in this! Sometimes others of this age group can improve on their initial runs and surprise you. All I will say is that they will have to if they are to improve past Blown By Wind tonight.
    7.35 WEEKENDER [ITV4] Tries this trip for the first time, but looks as though it might bring about further improvement for this son of Frankel. I took 3/1 yesterday, but I think even at the 2/1 available this morning (9/4 with Hills) he is still a bet. Has the invaluable assistance of Frankie aboard. I believe that Magic Circle needs to win here to get an entry in the Melbourne Cup, but even allowing for his Chester Cup win two weeks ago, he'd need to be getting weight from Weekender here yet he concedes 1 lb.

    In the other two televised races this evening I very much like the chances of Without Parole (7.05) [ITV4] and Poet's Word ( 8.10) [ITV4]. I had these two in a double yesterday at 1/1 and 4/5, which gives a price of 2.6/1 for the bet. They are currently trading at best prices of 4/6 and 8/11, which comes out at 1.8/1. I wouldn't recommend them at those prices, but I do think both will win.
     
  10. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Thanks again for your advice mate. Half of my bets have come in today. Bit disappointed with BLOWN BY WIND but very happy overall. Cheers mate. Let me know when your out for a drink before a match and I will get you a pint or 5.
     
  11. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    So was I! Full review in the morning!
     
  12. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Nice one, I’m quite intrigued by the first 4 races at Goodwood.
     
  13. granty the red

    granty the red Well-Known Member

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    Have had a cheeky few quid on PORTLEDGE 14.35, TALAAKY 15.10, HIGHBROW 15.45. Treble to win is 47.13/1
     
  14. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Review
    1.30 Goodwood MUTAWAFFER WON 5/4
    Led from start to finish and was always in command. This was a further pointer to Blown By Wind (see 6.35) who beat Mutawaffer into 4th at Ascot!
    4.55 Goodwood SACRED PATH 2nd 13/8
    The risk with debutants is always that they will run a little too green. This one really got going in the final furlong, where she came from 5th to snatch 2nd with a very strong run, getting going all too late. She will know more next time, but this will not have gone unnoticed!
    6.35 Sandown BLOWN BY WIND 4th 7/2
    Ran a very respectable race from the outside draw. The probability is that he matched or even surpassed his previous form, but was in a better race here. Beaten only 1.75 lengths in 4th, the others had to improve to beat him, but they did. A good race to have in mind going forward, I think.
    7.35 WEEKENDER 3rd 9/4
    The extra two furlongs proved beyond Weekender here, and Magic Circle, who I highlighted as a possible danger found more improvement than I expected, given that he is now six. He qualifies for a shot at the stayers' million bonus but looks more likely to be aimed at the Melbourne Cup in November.

    I mentioned (but didn't recommend) What A Welcome, who took the first from Stormingin, and the night's two 'good things', Without Parole and Poet's Word, who both won at 4/6. It's important that we get 'value' and the morning prices were just a little too short to put the double up, although as I said, I had availed myself of it at 1/1 and 4/5 shortly after declaration time on Tuesday.

    Two fancies today:
    2.00 Goodwood BIG BOOTS (5/2)
    His 7th at Windsor last time was in a hot race and probably wasn't too far behind the form of his debut win. This looks easier, and provided he can be held on to in the early stages (raced too freely at Windsor) he is capable of getting back on the winning trail.
    3.30 Haydock FELINE GROOVY (5/2 with Hills - take that)
    Likely improver for William Haggas, and ridden by experienced northern jockey, Danny Tudhope. She posted a cracking 2nd at Newmarket on debut when beaten by a filly who went on to run 3rd to the current Oaks favourite in a Listed race on 1,000 Guineas Day. This if anything is a slight drop in class and I would imagine William Haggas will be disappointed if she can't take this race out. I took 3's yesterday on this, and it has been backed in - so get the 5/2 if you can.

    Granty: The second and third at Goodwood look too much of a puzzle for me. I wouldn't put you off Highbrow in the Listed race (3.45) but I was just a bit afraid of Aspetar, Bombyx and Main Street as dangers, so I've left that one alone.
     
  15. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Two disappointing runs yesterday with a 2nd and a 4th. Neither horse matched their previous form, let alone found the improvement I expected. No worries - two of the many, not the few! I'll do one more day at this running commentary lark - hope some have found it useful.

    Lots of races today, but only one of any betting interest for me.
    2.30 Goodwood SOCIETY POWER (9/2) + EMARAATY (8/1)
    Two with massive potential for improvement in a competitive £62k handicap. Society Power had Fenaan behind at Ascot last time out when he won in a good time. Two runs ago Emaraaty contested the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes and is in a Class 2 handicap here. Both William Haggas and John Gosden continue in very good form. If you were staking £10 here you'd need to bet £6.21 Society Power and £3.79 on Emaraaty. You can multiply or divide those ratios to suit your own stake. Combined they come out at around 2.4/1 which equates to around a 29% chance of one or other winning. Looking at their profiles, I make their chance nearer to 40%, which would suggest combined odds of 6/4 or so. So I think value exists here (if I am right about their chances!) although some luck in running is always required in larger field handicaps at Goodwood.

    I like Invincible Army in the 3.25 Haydock but there are too many dangers to justify a bet. Bataash should win the 4.00 but is odds on. In the Irish 2,000 Guineas (4.10) I find it hard to split Mark Johnston's Elarqam (7/4) and Aidan's US Navy Flag (3/1) and Gustav Klimt (5/1).

    Good Luck to all!
     
  16. sta

    starbreaker Active Member

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    Nice one on today’s :) have you any tips for tomorrow
     
  17. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Sparky likes this.
  18. Sparky

    Sparky Well-Known Member

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    Top class, well done
     
  19. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Cheers, Sparky!

    Three summer jumps fixtures today, which doesn't really float my boat. I think HAPPILY (6/4) should win the Irish 1,000 Guineas (4.10 Curragh), but I'd have a very modest saver on Clemmie (7/1 with Paddy's).
     
  20. sir ronald

    sir ronald Well-Known Member

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    Cheers orsenkhats
     

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