Theresa ‘Gollum’ May

She's heavily expected to win the vote....

http://sports.williamhill.com/betti...l-theresa-may-win-the-2018-vote-of-confidence

 

I'd be very surprised if she didn't, however, if the scale of victory is slimmer than expected, the pressure builds. Though I've long held the view you'll have to get her out of Downing St with a crowbar.

 

Shes like a parasitic vampire

 

It’s a secret ballot and both sides could possibly gain with her demise imo.
The Brexiteers want a hard Brexit so could go against her and the remainders might think her demise could cancel Brexit or force another vote .
It’ll be close imo

 

May will win comfortably. She will fail to get any movement from the EU on the backstop. She will lose the Brexit vote. The DUP and a few extreme Right wingers will support a NC vote. There will be a GE. From there who knows.

 

I'm not sure how comfortable it will be, but I think there should be clear water, but less than if it had succeeded a few weeks ago. Agree on Eu stance. Agree she will lose the Brexit vote. DUP... they've said they'd support her, but if they think they may lose the extra £1bn left to pay for their bribe, will they abstain, or would they bring her down knowing they aren't going to get any more in future? Depends if they put values ahead of money.

I just can't see it getting to a GE though, and I certainly can't see Corbyn being in government if it did get that far. Tories crave power over everything else, so would they endanger that?

Its a colossal mess and I suspect it will meander to a conclusion of possibility rather than strategized aim.

 

may be wrong but I get the impression Corbyn doesn't actually want to be PM - he may be happy to get May out but not sure if he want top job.

 

1

158 votes are enough as they don't have a majority remember. It may be less as there seems to be a dispute over validity over who can vote. I fully suspect several cabinet members will vote against and it will be tighter than expected.

As for the referendum. GE's and leadership contests are clearly in the "national interest" (I can't wait til that is consigned to the dustbin with strong and stable!), the people having a true informed voice, that's not in the national interest.

Only way out in my mind is a 2nd referendum. I don't know how we get there with corbyns EU views and had to be dragged kicking and screaming to even include it in the all options policy motion. Its just a mess. A colossal mess. Since the referendum I've been lucky enough to visit Austria, Portugal, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Denmark, Poland, Greece, Belgium and Luxembourg. I've yet to have a discussion where anyone supported leaving or could understand what the Uk was doing. And the amount of building and infrastructure going in place have all been far in excess of what you see outside of London in our country.

 

I'm pretty sure she'll win. I could see her resigning though when, as you say she get's f-all at the negotiating table.
There is a clear majority in parliament not to leave without a deal, so I see some sort of stalemate, until the inevitable second referendum is called.
As much as I'd like a GE, I don't see it resolving the Brexit mess.

 

The only way a GE would sort the mess is if one party, obviously labour as the opposition cane out and supported remain. Give the country a proper choice.

As labour are scared of upsetting the 70% of labour voters who voted leave that won’t happen so we are stuck. A country divided and both political Parties scared to upset their core vote.

 

Ah.... but Labours position is clear.... well that's what they say before saying something that is either nebulous and unfathomable, impossible, or just made up randomness. I can't think of a worse time that we could have had these two "leaders" and absolutely no opposition of any weight at all.

I had the upsetting moment of listening to Richard Burgon on BBC. It's a sad state of affairs when you get mullered in debate by Liam Fox!

 

The main problem is neither party supports remain or brexit..... so it’s a convoluted mess.

 

Labour MPs and members are largely remain. They would need cross party support though to get anything passed.
In some ways I'm happy with a stalemate for now & hopefully it will all blow over.

 

I don't think its going to blow over, and with the legislation to exit in March, sadly, time just passing won't deliver a good outcome.

 

We won't fall off a cliff with no deal. Neither party will take the blame for that, it would be political suicide. More negotiating time will be agreed.

 

A good summary of the position:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a..._Ms1MTKTtvbCaMib3SwS0VYtNloQbd5Geo6cDzvTjtuiI

 

Looks to me like she might have properly stitched them up.

In fact - if you'll permit a bit of conspiracy here - it wouldn't surprise me at all if May had asked allies to put the last few letters in, reasoning that it's better to catch them on the hop and win than wait for the rest of the actual letters to go in after 29/3.