FAO MR ORSENKAHT

Hi Orsenkaht
I do agree with you about Charlie Appleby he can train horses. He might even have a winner tonight at Newcastle Lol
I was in attendance at Doncaster yesterday where I only had 2 bets all day . I just love trying to solve a big handicap so I backed Dannielsflyer at 16/1 very unlucky not to win Lol
I backed Red Verdon I just couldn’t believe the price 3/1 how on earth could there make Willie John 10/11 I couldn’t work that out ..timeform TRW average 122 Red Verdon 127 Willie John 113p a stone to fined
Ps what did you reckon to the ride Ryan Moore gave Shareef Star absolutely shocking

 

Yes Thurnscoe, as Matt Chapman pointed out on Sky Racing, Red Verdon's official rating was 15 pounds in hand of Willie John's yet the weight concession was just three pounds. I thought Ryan rode a well-judged waiting race in that event, tracking the leaders and racing on the inside, presumably with a view to saving ground. It was a small field, and Ryan produced him to comfortably go past the leaders.

The 4.20 was a somewhat different story! Similar tactics in some respects, in that Ryan again chose the inside and again tracked a little off the pace. But with 12 runners, and looking as though he possibly needed the run into the bargain, Shareef Star was blocked on at least three separate occasions. He'll be of interest next time along with Hulcote (3rd), as Timeform observe in their write-up of the race. Do I blame Ryan? Well, I don't think it's quite that straightforward. He was repeating the tactics from the Red Verdon race but with a bigger field of opponents and with a horse that wasn't quite as race-fit as Red Verdon evidently was. I recall reading one of Richard Hughes' columns in the Post where he spoke about Ryan's riding style. If I can remember accurately, I think he said that Ryan will generally look for the shortest route and will ordinarily wait for the gaps to appear. If they come - fine. If they don't - he tends to think that's just racing and there will be other days. So while he can produce many genius rides, on other occasions he will throw in what looks on the face of it an absolute stinker. But that's his way, and his overall record justifies his approach. He tends not to get carried away, win or lose. I think that if you work off aiming for a certain percentage strike rate in your bets, sometimes his rides will be in the 66% that lose rather than the 33% that win!

 

HAASAB 1400hrs Cant loose

 

Hold up tactics are great when they work but look horrible when you get blocked. Happens to the best of them, seen Frankie boxed in and even the great Lester Piggott on rare occasions. My favourite jockey when I first started watching the racing was Aussie Scobie Breasley, who seemed to enjoy waiting tactics but odd times it went pear shaped and even farther back was the Head Waiter himself Harry Wragg who came from Sheffield.
Made a small profit on Kynren but it was a case of what might have been with a couple of other 2nds as well. Still this week is another opportunity

 

Usual caution here: I back more losers than winners, which doesn't matter so long as the price of the winners is right.

I am very keen on the chances today of Amedeo Modigliani (5.00 Leopardstown). He needed his seasonal debut at Naas (3rd) recently. He is entered in a Group 1 race in May; this is only a Listed race. Ryan Moore goes over to ride. 5/2 generally, which to my mind underestimates his chance.

 

Looked like it didn't want to go past to me.

 

It's a possible interpretation, Mr Dawson. But as Timeform observe he was entitled to need the race coming off a 20 month layoff. They also observe he was "not knocked about" - no doubt with a view to the fact that he has bigger targets ahead and Aidan's usually come on a lot for a run. I think you can expect a much improved showing today, but we will be wiser (and richer or poorer!) come 5.10 pm!

 

I think Imaging looks better value.

 

Looking forward to Grand National Festival getting started tomorrow. Look away now:

Coral have gone Best Odds Guaranteed:
1:45 Mengli Khan 8/1 £2.50 E/W
2:20 Fakir D' Oudairies 9/2 £5 win
2:50 Clan Des Obeaux 9/4 £10 win
3:25 Melon 5/1 £5 win
4:05 Ucello Conti 6/1 £2.50 E/W
4:40 Brelan D'As 7/1 £2.50 E/W
5:15 Minella Melody no prices so bet not placed yet.

25p E/W Lucky 31

1:45 Mengli Khan
2:20 Fakir D'Oudairies
3:25 Melon
4:05 Ucello Conti
4:40 Brelan D'As

 

Amadeo disappointing. Very good call, Mr Dawson!

 

ERE GOES, Not reight gud at tipstering but my fancy tday is

UCELLO CONTI 405 Aintree 50 parnd e/way, just got 7/1 betXtra Rotherham

 

5:15 Minella Melody £10 win @ 11/4

 

We were loved there. Made a mistake n' pulled up. Can't help thinking all that crap from Cheltenham with flogging em' too hard played its part though.

I'm all for horse welfare but it was in behind leaders.

 

4.40 Aintree CHAMP

Just that.

 

500 parnd darn so far, wi Cheltenham and 1st day at Aintree. Onwards and win summat.

AARAMON 2.20 STRAIGHT ON NOSE