AKA The Northumberland Plate, AKA The Pitmens' Derby (3.35, Newcastle, Saturday). A speculative one: Gibbs Hill has been off the track for two years but would be top on Timeform ratings if it turns up on Saturday. Intriguingly, it has halved in price since Saturday evening. Bet365 are a standout 10/1. It is as low as 6's with one firm.
Do you gamble with a horse that hasn't ran for two years and hasn't tackled two miles? It's tricky this year. I've looked at Rock Eagle. However, that just goes down in the progressive bracket with it's decent run behind Mirage Dancer at Goodwood. Red Galileo won well last time. I'll wait until Thursday to pick mine out.
I take your point, SD. But really, if you get on some of these types of gamble early doors you're only looking for one or two of them to pay off during the year. As ever, it's all about percentage chance v strike rate. The owner of Gibbs Hill is Paul Smith, son of Derrick Smith, who is one of the Coolmore partners. Men who know the time of day! I see he is now best priced at 7/1 and that with only three firms. I did have Rock Eagle on my shortlist earlier, but I see he has not been declared at the five-day stage. Of the others the only one that appeals to me is Mark Johnston's Kings' Advice. He looks the sort who keeps finding that little bit extra and is only three pounds higher than for his narrow Goodwood win in this grade. Importantly he is a previous winner on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton, so should be suited by Newcastle. He is 10/1 best.
I've narrowed it down to six so far Orsen: Withold and Gibbs Hill are the stand out picks and the class option. Then there's a few that the form intertwines: Red Galilelo and Proschema are closely matched on their Newmarket run. Batholomeu Dias and Making Miracles have previous when running at Goodwood. Out of the lot I'd probably back the first two as soon as it goes non-runner no bet with Coral's.
I've just nabbed a bit of 3/1 Invincible Army for the Chipchase with 888 and I see they've very quickly gone 5/2! He is an intended runner, according to Mr Tate.
I'll be having some of that. It was a decent run behind Blue Point on Saturday but I must admit I was a tad disappointed it fell away like it did.
I've gone for a real left field punt with Aircraft Carrier. Been running way out of his class but has done well previously on the AW albeit at Wolverhampton.
Was always going to be **** or bust with Gibbs. Travelled well but found nowt. No damage done at the AP prices. Hope some folks got on Invincible Army in the Chipchase. Class performance. While we're on, what sort of ride was that that Ryan gave Anthony Van Dyck? I've made apologies for him in the past, but that was inexcusable from a jockey who should know the time of day. There are some serious questions about the uncompetitiveness of Irish racing and the rather strange results that seem to flow from it.
I'm not the greatest fan of Ryan Moore. He is strong in a finish but as you intimated he does get decisions wrong and for me he gets them wrong too frequently. I'm not saying he's a bad jockey but I do think he's a tad overrated.
