Minority Report - Talking Tactics (1)

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Red Rain, Jul 27, 2019.

  1. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    Thoughts on the new season and personnel changes following our promotion in May

    part 1

    Although I wrote Minority Report for the whole of last season, I did not publish it on open forum. Consequently, many readers will not be aware of my thoughts about last season, about the players and about the Chief Coach and his way of playing the game. It makes more sense to read Minority Report with a background of existing knowledge about my style and about the things that I have said in the past. The thoughts that follow are an attempt to bring readers, old and new, up to date in advance of my first Minority Report for the Fulham game. New readers will have already noticed how long my posts are. This will not change. I like to explain why I think in a particular way.


    I will be honest. I do not like personal abuse and in returning to the BBS, I have resolved not to respond to it in any way. However, I have just as much to learn about the game as any other contributor to the BBS. I will be happy to debate my ideas in the interest of learning more, but I know from bitter experience how easy it is for debate to move into pointless argument or points scoring. You will have to excuse me if I withdraw without comment from the sort of debate that is going nowhere. Sorry, in advance!


    Right back in May, soon after our promotion had been confirmed, I began thinking about how the Barnsley team should be strengthened if it is to retain its Championship status. Several things were clear from the outset. The new team would have to be built taking full account of the club’s stated policy. That policy is basically buy young, improve and sell on. If anything, the policy has been amended slightly under the new owners to, buy even younger, keep for even longer and sell on. We have no idea whether the amended policy will yield better returns, or whether the club will be saddled with players that can never make the grade because we are signing them to long contracts before their promise is confirmed. At the end of last season, there were a number of players that were approaching the end of their current contracts. The policy for players in that position is to offer them new contract terms, but if the player declines the offer, he has to be sold on, hopefully at a profit. The policy is virtually the same policy as that employed by Patrick Cryne during the later stages of his term of ownership, no matter how the anti-Cryne brigade might try to dress it up in different clothes. The policy was developed through bitter experience and heavy financial losses. The new owners have not introduced any new money into the business, but they have made use of the cushion of the money that Mr Cryne left in the club’s bank account and in the club’s debtor balances in respect of players sold in the latter part of his reign, a figure of over £10m.


    Back in May, I thought that we needed 10 new players plus replacements for any first team established starters who left before the start of the new season. This was largely aspirational, because I had no reason to think that the board/chief coach shared my vision. However, as at 27 July, there is only 4 more players needed to meet my target, so who knows. Anything can happen in the next 2 weeks.


    Aspirational Squad (from May) (Actual Squad (as at 27 July))

    Goalkeeper
    Adam Davies (Brad Collins)
    Jack Walton (Jack Walton)
    AN Other (Samuel Radlinger)

    Right Back
    AN Other (Toby Sibbick)
    Dimitri Cavare (Dimitri Cavare)
    Jordan Williams (Jordan Williams)

    Left Back
    AN Other (?)
    Dani Pinillos (Dani Pinillos)
    Ben Williams (Ben Williams)

    Centre Back (x2)
    AN Other (right sided) (Mads Andersen)
    AN Other (right sided) (Aapo Halme)
    Ethan Pinnock (Bambo Diamy)
    Liam Lindsay (?)

    Right Midfield
    Jacob Brown (Jacob Brown)
    Jordan Green (Jordan Green)
    AN Other (Luke Thomas)

    Left Midfield
    Mamadou Thiam (Mamadou Thiam)
    AN Other (Mallik Wilks)

    Centre Midfield (2/3 dependent upon system)
    Alex Mowatt (Alex Mowatt)
    Cameron McGeehan (Cameron McGeehan)
    Kenny Dougall (Kenny Dougall)
    Mike-Steven Bahre (Mike-Steven Bahre)
    Callum Styles (Callum Styles)
    AN Other (?)

    Forwards
    Kieffer Moore (Kieffer Moore)
    Cauley Woodrow (Cauley Woodrow)
    Victor Adeboyejo (sell or loan) (Loaned to Bristol Rovers)
    George Miller (George Miller)
    AN Other (Connor Chaplin)
    AN Other (?)
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2019
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  2. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    Thoughts on the new season and personnel changes following our promotion in May

    part 2

    Outgoing Players


    Adam Davies either had insufficient sell on value at the previous window, or was unable to command a market value that was sufficient to make his sale a worthwhile proposition in the January transfer window, and consequently, he reached the end of his contract term and left to join Stoke City after turning down a new contract offer.


    Liam Lindsay apparently refused to even open discussions on a new contract as his current contract entered its final 12 months. He left the club with no option other than to sell him, also to Stoke City, for a fee reputed to be £2.0m plus possible add-ons. Readers of Minority Report would have been in little doubt that I had mixed feelings about Lindsay. On the positive side, he won most of his aerial duels. On the negative side, he is not quick. This has ramifications about how the manager can play the game, especially at Championship level. If our manager wants to play the pressing game, and I presume he must do because that was his default option in his first season, in order to do that, the team needs to play a high back line in order to reduce the space being covered by our midfield players in advance of that defensive line, and between our defensive line and that of the opposition. If the team is to do that successfully, it must have pace in the back four, and particularly at the centre of the back four. It needs that because the press is not always going to work, and when it does not, the greatest danger is that opposition midfield players will find the time and the room to hit accurate through passes on the break to a quick opposition forward players. Last season, I thought that the press created almost as many opportunities for our opponents as it did for us. The difference was that we had the better strikers, but that is not going to be true next season. It is the system used successfully at Liverpool in the hands of Jurgen Klopp, but even their system could not be made to work properly until Liverpool acquired more pace. Trent Alexander-Arnold, and particularly Virgil van Dijk are key to the success of the system at Liverpool and if Barnsley are to mirror that success, albeit at a lower level, they must try to match the building blocks that Liverpool has used. That or we must abandon the press altogether after we make the step up. It has to be said that in those original notes that I wrote back in May, I had assumed that we would change our system to something more practical given the potential improvement in the standard and particularly, the pace and accuracy of finish of the opposition players in our new surroundings. I considered that to approach the new season with exactly the same defensive players, with their general lack of pace was a recipe for a quick return to League 1. Doncaster, Charlton and Coventry ripped us apart at Oakwell last season, and they all relied on pace as their principle attacking weapon.


    Ethan Pinnock has pace. He also has class, but when he too refused our offer of a new contract, the board had little choice. He had to be sold, and this time Brentford were the beneficiary for an unreported fee of £3m. I am sorry that Pinnock has gone, but I understand the reasons for it, just as I did when players were sold when the club was owned by Patrick Cryne.


    Throughout early July, there were persistent rumours that Keiffer Moore was on his way out too. At his best, Keiffer Moore is exactly what almost any team would want. For a big man, he is quick. His first touch is good and he makes room for others. He is not as good in the air as may be expected given his height, but he is better on the ground than a big man has a right to be. He has more than a year left on his contract, so what might be the catalyst for the rumour? Well, Daniel Stendel might want to play in a different way. We have assembled a team of giant defenders, who are also reported to be quick. Part of the need for Moore was as an additional tall defender at set pieces, but he may think that we have enough now, and no longer need Moore. Stendel may want to play more like Liverpool, who stretch the opposition defence with pace, rather than play in front of a defence and rely on quick and accurate lay-offs and short passes to break through them. I mentioned in a different piece that one more concussion and Moore faces a long period out of the game. After all, none of us is privy to his medical records and none of us knows for certain just how many concussion episodes he has suffered over recent years. The Moore rumour may be a reflection on his medical record. On the other hand, the rumour may be just that… a rumour backed up only by circumstantial evidence. I hope so, because I really rate him. In fact, I rate him above Woodrow, not for his goals, but for his effect on the team, its ethic and organisation and its team play, but no doubt we shall see in due course.


    Just before our final friendly game of the season (Sheffield United), Victor Adeboyejo left for a season on loan at Bristol Rovers. Now, I have nothing personal against Adeboyejo, but I do not see any talent or potential in him.
     
  3. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    Thoughts on the new season and personnel changes following our promotion in May

    part 3

    Incoming Players


    Our first purchase of the transfer window was Luke Thomas, a player who played and scored for the Coventry team that gave us so many problems with their pace last season. His pace was the key that unlocked us time after time. Our second purchase of the transfer window was Mads Andersen, a tall Danish centre back who also seems to have plenty of pace. On very little evidence, I am encouraged, but if my confidence is to build, we will need more pace and we will need to increase the number of players in our first team squad.


    Last season I worried that our lack of numbers would cost us promotion. It was caused by budget limitations resulting from SCMP, but every team in the league faced those. We had to borrow a keeper as an emergency for one game because Davies was away on international duty and Jack Walton was injured. Even after Davies’ return, we were forced to use an untested reserve (Greatorex) as his match day emergency deputy until Walton returned to fitness. One more goalkeeper injury would have cost us promotion. Up front, we had only Moore and Woodrow. It was clear from the start of the season that Adeboyejo was not of League 1 standard, and although Thiam is now listed as a forward, I do not believe that he is. When Moore was injured at Gillingham, I was sure that our season was over, and I still think that we were lucky that it was not. It was a very close thing, and our success relied heavily on Woodrow staying fit. As it is, one more concussion and Moore is out of the team for a very, very long time, and Woodrow would not provide a threat on his own, not at Championship level he wouldn’t. He simply does not have the pace for that.


    I have started these notes at the beginning of July, and have begun by reviewing the original assessment I produced in May. Then, I ventured the opinion that we needed 10 additional players plus replacements for any first team regulars who are sold in the window. Furthermore, I felt that those players needed to be of a higher quality than those that we had last season in League 1, and particularly, quicker. Now, of course I know nothing of the recruitment process, nor the qualities of the players that we are hoping to recruit, other than that the majority will be below the age of 24. However, as a broad statement, those new players must be quick, and a start has been made at full back, where Cavare now has some competition from Toby Sibbick. Cavare is quick, but he is not accurate and has a problem with his concentration. At centre back, Andersen is quick and in July, he was joined by Aapo Halme and Bambo Diamy. I would like to see 1 more recruit at centre back, preferably a left sided one, and preferably a player with more experience, a player who can guide his youthful team-mates in defence through a game.


    We have already recruited two goalkeepers, so I would think that completes our goalkeeper recruitment. Brad Collins looks to be a good acquisition, although I know nothing of Radlinger, the Austrian lad we recruited shortly afterwards.


    In midfield, we have improved our pace out wide with the acquisition of Luke Thomas and Mallik Wllks. In centre midfield, endurance, passing ability and tackling are qualities that are more in demand than pure pace. This is the engine room. It is where most games are won and lost, where the pattern of the game is established and where the struggle for dominance and superiority is fought at close quarters. It is in these close quarter battles that most bookings are taken and most kicks are given and received. It is very unusual for a midfield player to complete 46 league games, as Mowatt did last year. Consequently, more centre midfield players are needed to cover collateral losses through injury, tiredness and suspension, and I expect Dougall’s recovery from injury to be delayed. I expect us to sign one addition player for this area, and again, in my opinion, this ought to be an older player capable of guiding his less experienced team-mates through a game.


    Up front, we have just recruited Connor Chaplin, another member of that Coventry side that came very close to embarrassing us last season. Lack of pace up front gave us a major problem last season, and the acquisition of pace means that Stendel has more options in the way that he decides to play the game, but I would still like to see one further acquisition up front because I do not see Miller contributing much this season. Of course, I have no idea whether any of these acquisitions will be good ones, but after a very slow start, when he made the best of the resources he had inherited, Stendel has now shown me the evidence that I needed concerning his thought processes, and I like what I have seen. That might just be that he seems to agree with my analysis of the team and its chances of retaining its place in the Chamopinship, but he has slowly dealt with most of my concerns. Even if, in spite of the changes, we are still relegated, there is a good chance that we would come back even stronger, although SCMP may have more than a say in that scenario. We are trying to build slowly, and with closely managed small steps, and it would be wrong to look too far ahead and making assumptions about inevitable success, because these players are very young/inexperienced, and there are no guarantees of success in such circumstances. Our new owners are taking an enormous risk by investing so much in so many inexperienced players, and risks do not always pay off, as any Bolton Wanderers fan will tell you.


    The squad that Stendel inherited was not of his design. Because of SCMP, he had few options and could not begin any fundamental re-design. He was stuck with what he had. He had to change some of his footballing philosophy in order to work with players who were not his choices. He got us promoted, but at times, you could see that it was a struggle. He did not have enough options to change the team in the event of injury, suspensions and loss of form. This season, he needed more players, better players and more options. The board has supported him. Those players are very young, and it is clear that our final few acquisitions need to be older heads to steady the young ones. But something else is also clear. He has gone for pace throughout, and height all across the line of the back four. Height across the back four means that for defensive set pieces, it is not quite so important to have the additional height that a big forward supplies. Therefore, our forward line need not include that big man (Kieffer Moore), and we can rely more on pace and movement as our main forward threats. This will be important in the coming season as it will mean that opposition coaches will find it harder to plan for our main threat, and as a consequence, will find it harder to nullify it. Expect Stendel to be even more secretive about his team selection in advance of games than he was last season, if that is possible.


    I will admit at this point that Stendel worried me last season. The first worry was his lack of English, and I feared that he would be unable to get his ideas across to the players accurately and quickly. Although his English has improved, it is still not perfect and the job of the coach is about communicating ideas and logic to players who can already play the game well. So in this respect, I do still worry that the learning process is slowed. However, his actions since our promotion have shown that not only was he fully aware of last season’s team’s failings, but that he had a clear vision about the team that he wanted to create. He has impressed me as an outsider more in this closed season than he did during the whole of our promotion season. It is clear that he and I see the game in similar ways. Now let us see how we can modify the press to allow us to remain strong at the back, in spite of devoting so many of our resources to trying to win the ball back early. The press will not work effectively against better players, and particularly, better finishers if we cannot change the way it works from last season’s blueprint.


    To summarise as at 27 July, according to my reckoning, we still need:

    Left back (tall and quick)
    Centre back (experienced)
    Centre midfield player (experienced)
    Front player (quick)

    Total number = 4 players


    As I said originally, my targets are aspirational rather than expected.
     
  4. Bossman

    Bossman Well-Known Member

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    Good to see you posting again RR
     
  5. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting reading, Mr Rain. I'd also be very interested to hear how you think the Fulham game will go given their status last season, their fairly inexperienced head coach and their recruitment/retention this summer?
     
  6. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    I know nothing of our new players. I know nothing of the experience that we hope to add in the final week before our opening match. All that I know for certain is that our centre-back partnership will be totally new, that we will have a very young and inexperienced squad, and that last season, it took our players a lot of games to be sure about when to use the counter-press. My gut feel is that Stendel will employ a less risky strategy to start with, and that counter-press will not be used until the squad is comfortable with it. I also know very little about Fulham, other than the obvious. It looks a very tough test in the heat of the early season when players are still finding form and fitness. It will be interesting, but I have no opinion beyond that.
     
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  7. Old Goat

    Old Goat Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that RR. A thoughtful, interesting read from start to finish. Looking forward to seeing your thoughts in the coming season.
     
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  8. ScubaTyke

    ScubaTyke Well-Known Member

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    A well written good read, thanks for sharing it. I think it will be an interesting season as the team gels.
     
  9. 55&counting

    55&counting Well-Known Member

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    great read, much of which i concur with. just left the sheff u game and your comments 're when and when not to use the press are v pertinent.
    against better calibre players the can get is we will be exposed more.
     
  10. 55&counting

    55&counting Well-Known Member

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    problem not can
     
  11. Pongo101

    Pongo101 Active Member

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    Nice constructive read,
     
  12. shed131

    shed131 Well-Known Member

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    Enjoyed that.. Thanks for taking the time to put your thoughts into print
    Keep up the good work glad to see you back posting.
     
  13. Tru

    TrueRed92 Well-Known Member

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    Callum Styles *
     
  14. PLOBBY

    PLOBBY Well-Known Member

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    Thanks RR but what the hell is SCMP ? South China Morning Post?:confused:
     
  15. Redhelen

    Redhelen Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't worry about Stendal 's lack of English as its come on leaps and bounds and Sterns English seems exceptional. Plus a lot of what he wants will be communicated in other ways that dont require so much speech.

    I enjoyed your posting but shorter paragraphs would make reading it easier.
     
  16. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    It stands for Salary Cap Management Protocol. Teams in Leagues 1 and 2 are not ruled by the Financial Fair Play rules that govern the maximum losses of clubs in the Premier League and the Championship. They are governed by SCMP rules. These rules are for more prescriptive. They level the playing field in Leagues 1 and 2, but make it far harder to put together a team that can compete when it is promoted to the higher leagues.

    It stands for Salary Cap Management Protocol (see http://www.financialfairplay.co.uk/scmp.php). Whilst FFP (Financial Fair Play) governs club spending, and principally the sums clubs are allowed to lose each year in the Championship and Premier League, SCMP governs spending in Leagues 1 and 2. SCMP is far more prescriptive, and its aim is to level the playing field through control of the amounts that clubs are allowed to spend on player wages (a term defined in detail). In League 1, total player wages are limited to 60% of turnover (another term that is also closely defined). Although it does effectively create a level playing field, and therefore closer matches in Leagues 1 and 2, at the same time, it makes it far harder for promoted clubs to compete when they are promoted back to the Championship until they are able to catch up with spending in the higher league, a league that is governed by the laxer rules of FFP. They have to adapt very quickly to the new rules, and it is a very big jump, or they are matched against more highly paid players every week. It is tough.
     
  17. John Peachy

    John Peachy Well-Known Member

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    I agree with a lot of your analysis TBH. Not read anything you wrote last year after you stopped posting MR. Most things I agree with & I personally dont think Moore is totally option 1 all the time. DS seems to be building a team around Bahre, pacy, attacking wide men & for me Woodrow is our "put the ball in the onion bag" man.
    Moore's mobility is astounding & his first touch is good, just needs some goals at this level.
     
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  18. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    I’m sorry, but I need to pick you up on this point. I’m sure it wasn’t intentional but it reads like there was some sort of philanthropic act on behalf of Mr Cryne leaving several millions in place in the football club.

    The fact is that those millions of cash and debtors were bought and paid for by the owners when they transacted to purchase the football club from Mr Cryne. So when you say they haven’t introduced any new money, no, not through the introduction of new loan or equity finance to the balance sheet, but be assured that they paid to acquire that balance sheet.

    Let’s not pretend that Mr Cryne’s stewardship wasn’t handsomely financially rewarded through selling the football club for multi millions of pounds, its value (I think we agree) significantly boosted by the cash and debtor balances which were heavily inflated through sale of players.

    Great post otherwise though and glad to have you back posting.
     
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  19. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    Until the recent change of ownership, Barnsley Football Club (2002) Ltd was owned by Oakwell Holdings Ltd, a company which was in turn owned by Patrick Cryne. Ownership changed when the whole of the share capital of Barnsley Football Club (2002) Ltd was purchased by Barnasley FC Holdings Ltd, a company registered in Hong Kong. The ownership of Barnsley FC Holdings cannot be determined accurately, because unlike the UK, you cannot look at that information on line. However, Chien Lee completed a form for Companies House that indicates that he is the beneficial holder of between 25% and 50% of the share capital. My recollection of the transaction was that Mr Cryne sold the company for £2.5 million. Do you have different information? I think that he paid the Administrator £1m for the footballing assets of Barnsley FC, plus another £3m for half a share of the ground. Let us forget about the ground as that is still in the original hands. On the face of it, he made £1.5m from the sale. However, that is not the whole story. During the period that he owned the club, he made a series of donations to the club that allowed it to get around some aspects of SCMP, especially during our previous promotion season. He also loaned the club more than £6m. Now, with £5m in the bank and another £5m in debtor balances, he could have chosen to have the majority of those loans repaid. He did not. Instead, he elected to have that loan reclassified as share premium (effectively share capital). He did not write off the loan, which would have effectively written it back into profit, incurring the club a corporation tax charge of £1m. Instead, he effectively increased the amount of money that he had originally paid for the club by over £6m.

    By the way, the P&L Balance in the football club accounts, effectively its net worth, even after selling all of those players was just over £3m. It had £5m in the bank and another £5m in debtor balances, but was only worth £3m. It was so low because of past accumulated losses, losses that had to be funded through injections of capital by Mr Cryne.

    There is a great reluctance by some of our fans to give Mr Cryne any credit for saving our famous club, and that is to a large degree, linked to the sale of players 3 years ago. However, the club policies under the new owners are exactly the same as they were under Mr Cryne, and that indicates that our new owners would have made exactly the same decisions. Mr Cryne never asked to be treated as a hero. He went about his business quietly and never asked for our sympathy when he was forced to make difficult decisions. He was the same age as me and we were both in the same profession. The question that I often ask myself is, if I had made as much money as Mr Cryne, would I have used 20% of it to bail out my football club. I have been a supporter for well over 50 years, but the answer to that question is no. I am far too thin skinned. That makes him a hero in my eyes, even if he never wanted that. I feel sorry that others do not see it the same way.

    Mr Cryne did the things that he did because he felt he had an obligation to do so, even if he did not particularly want to. He never looked at profit as a motive when he made his original investment, or when he made the loans and donations. Why do you think our present owners invested in the club?
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2019
  20. 55&counting

    55&counting Well-Known Member

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    Ardsley
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    Barnsley (full width)
    that is a wonderful homage to patrick!
     
    SuperTyke likes this.

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