Been keeping out of the Brexit debate but I am puzzled by one thing, so genuine question...

BBC are still headlining the 'Vote of no confidence' argument to stop Brexit as the most likely option provided Corbyn Swinson et al can 'get their act together'. and unite all the disparate groups to gain a majority wanting Brexit cancelled.
Than in itself to me, seems unlikely but my question is more about the timeframe.
By law we leave on the 31st October. That means Parliament returns from summer recess on 3rd September.Provided a no-confidence vote can be made on the opening day of Parliament that is 27 days to end of September. Then add on 31 days in October i.e 59 days in Total.

If Govt lose they have 14 days in which to try and convince Parliament to change the vote and then have another No-confidence vote. If the lose that a GE is called. but this must be a minimum of 7 weeks after the No confidence vote. So that is 9 weeks (63 days).

Unless the opposition can create a coalition and elect a new Government with a leader who can satisfy all parties (and that is not Corbyn) then that is surely too late.

I am not saying it is impossible, but unlike the BBC, who seem to be approaching it as if it for the ' No deal/no Brexit Parliamentarians' to lose, I think the odds are stacked against them, without a cohesive plan in place any election would be a binary one and not break the current deadlock i.e. remain or leave since the only deal on offer has been rejected multiple times. The very threat of a NC vote has virtually eliminated any chance (if there ever was one) of BJ renegotiating the deal.

 

You don't need a general election to form a new government following a no confidence vote. If it can be shown that a particular MP has enough support to form a government, then the Queen will invite them to be pm, and they will then do what is required to stop a no deal Brexit. This is likely to be a temporary government before a general election/second referendum or both is called.

 

Maybe not but that scenario relies on consensus as who would lead and at the moment there is none. besides, they would still have to get the rejected deal voted through since the EU won't re-open negotiations, or get sufficient numbers to support revocation of article 50 which could prove difficult. My point was not that either of those are impossible but that BBC seem to imply a vote of no confidence is more likely to win than not and that would lead to a GE. at the moment I do not see a leading contender to take over from Johnson, No Conservative MPs will support Corbyn and I suspect nor would Lib Dems. Neither of the two Cons suggested would get approval so where does that leave us since the idea of a Liberal coalition with a Lib Dem PM is frankly absurd. So we are left with a GE.

 

I think you’ve really answered your own question. It is either leave or have a vote of no confidence and an interim government that stops us leaving. A General Election with possible second referendum or leave without a deal resulting from that. Whether an interim government can happen is the big question. The BBC are then obviously correct in focusing on that issue.
As for an alternative deal being stopped by a vote of no confidence? That’s just swallowing another lie by the Brexiteers hook line and sinker. Never any chance that Boris wanted a deal.

 

The key thing is that even if another grouping could show that they have enough support in Parliament to form an alternative government, it still needs Boris to tender his resignation. Nothing in the FTPA 2011 compels him to do so, and he won't. An election would then follow and we would be out of the EU before that was concluded. Tekktyke is therefore right with his assessment

 

That said, when that realisation dawns, the EU may reconsider what is the least worst option. But I think Boris holds the cards here, much though I regret it.

 

DEMOCRACY.
Carry out the will of the people and leave the EU .
Then campaign to hold another referendum . Re Join or remain out .

 

MORE DEMOCRACY
Just ask the people: are you really sure you want to do this in the light of all we know after the last three years? If the answer is yes, then so be it. But we know so much more now.

 

Sh1tting Brex.. Aren't we...?

 

Agree. We are more informed ,but who should reverse the will of the people other than the people

 

Exactly.

 

There is no re join. If we want to rejoin after leaving, they will insist on Euro, free movement etc, along with all the other things we currently are able to opt out of, in the amazing deal we currently have with the EU.

If nothing else, it would be amusing to see the reactions of those that say “we voted out, we need to leave at any cost” if we vote to go back in and the EU force the Euro on us. The will of the people.

 

Oh fk not again!

 

Rubbish, I think it's great to have a new Brexit thread

 

Now my daughter is out of the country and I don’t need to worry about her medicines and my job relies on supporting factories in Eastern Europe with no supply chain in the UK I can’t wait for the ensuing **** show. I can’t wait for the shrinking economy and loss of money to all the social services I don’t care about. I voted remain but good luck to all those in vulnerable positions who have been sold the lies of the elites who support Brexit for their own Nefarious ends. I hope you enjoy your new freedom from the EU. You couldn’t make this up - a concerted effort to ignore all common sense and expert advise to commit economic damage for as yet unspecified or quantified benefits.

 

And this rant answers the genuine question posed in the OP how exactly?

 

Genuine question. Are you at all worried that the UK plans to end free movement on day 1 in the event of no deal? Given that EU citizens are being denied permanent stay already, if I was in your position I would be very worried that the EU will react in kind.

Turkeys voting for Christmas indeed.

 

There are those of us who expect bad things following Brexit. I think on any view both ourselves and the EU have to be poorer if things break up acrimoniously. If things haven't gone too far, I can actually see a scenario where an approach to the EU to rejoin on the same terms we had before 31 October 2019 would be viewed favourably by Europe, who would probably welcome the opportunity to go back to what we all enjoyed before. The danger is that we may become so enmeshed with America that this scenario is difficult to bring about.

 

Since you seem intent on personalising this thread I will respond. No. I am not in the least bit worried. Why? Because I go beyond the UK media headlines and do my research. In both Italy and Spain the Government have already made decrees regarding status of UK nationals already holding permanent residency status post Brexit. Although current documentation would become irrelevant with 'no deal' as it is EU relatedl we will simply change this documentation for permanent resident status that American, Australian, African and Asian expats have by going to the Comune or police station in the same way as our 5 year temporary one was changed to permanent status within 20 minutes at the princely cost of about 5 euros.

You seem not to understand that immigration rules for migrants from countries outside the EU are outside the remit of the EU and are for individual governments to determine. Besides there are many current laws both International and, ironically, the EU (given it is the UK leaving and not France Italy Spain Greece etc.) that make mass expulsions of settled migrants illegal. In terms of tax rules, nothing changes there either, since they are regulated by individual dual taxation treaties and nothing to do with Brexit or, in fact, the EU.

Free movement through Europe (Schengen) may end but that means instead of using our ID cards we revert back to UK passports for travel (albeit with expiry dates becoming more relevant). It will be interesting to see though, how the EU , if they wish to take that route, will manage that since the borders within Europe are open and identifying Italian, French etc vehicles passing through national borders with UK occupants when both driver's license and vehicle registration are from the countries where they are domiciled would be problematic. They have already stated no visas will be needed by UK visitors to Europe for stays up to 90 days so same applies to expats within Europe.

Two final points,

There would be no benefit to countries to 'kick us out' as you apparently relish the idea of. We bring money in to the country, pay our taxes and support local economies. In short, they have no motivation, reason or justification to do so. Sorry to disappoint.
Brits migrated to Europe and other parts of the World long before the EU existed and will, no doubt, continue to due so after Brexit. It just means different hoops to jump through.

 

I dont think either side will come out of this well hence I do not subscribe to the idea that the pound will crash on no deal well at least not against the Euro. I think both sterling AND the Euro will fall against the dollar and other World currencies but even then the World economy may feel the effects as it is not totally immune from the fall out. Whilst I am not screaming Project Fear at every negative report I do find some of the claims 'interesting' and 'over egged'.

Just one example: over 35 years ago I used to tour Europe in a band and also organised the logistics. We had a substantail amount of lighting, sound equipment and musical instruments. Every item we travelled with - down to every cable and plug had to be listed on carbon copy Carnets with description, serial numbers (where applicable) and value. We used to travel via Holland Belgium and Germany and every border meant queuing with other commercial vehicle drivers to get the carnets stamped to leave the country then literally cross over the road to queue again to get the next sheet stamped to enter that country. This had to be done at every border point within Europe and since we were bringing the same goods back we had to repeat when returning home.So every border crossing meant a delay of at least one hour. This all took place with manual (no IT systems in situ) input and lots of rubber stamps.

We once made the outbound journey via Hull and returned via Dover. 3 months later I had a knock at the door (in Barnsley) and a Customs man in full uniform was standing there. He told me we had left the UK with x thousands of pounds worth of goods and there was no record of them returning and wanted to see the export licence. He was only satisfied when I took him to the storage area and opened up the flight cases and showed him a number of the items with the serial numbers cross checked against his copy of the carnet. He had come 70 miles solely because there was no communication between Dover and Hull Customs!!

Even with the worst case scenario no deal. since UK EU border would be at the Point of entry in to Europe this would only be done twice... leaving UK and re-entering UK the inconvenience of the journey is minimal compared to those days. Whilst goods traffic volumes have increased I fail to understand why with modern technology there is talk of 35 mile tailbacks on both sides of the channel.