Why is the R rate in London...

To be fair, no matter how much of a buffoon Boris is, if he was going to make up a hospital stay even he would have more sense than naming the imaginary bloke looking after him as Dr Nick

 

I agree that lock down works in reducing infections. I'm not arguing against that at all. But the models we have given do not allow for the fact that somewhere with more infections will get their R rate below somewhere with fewer by lock down. It is entirely at odds with everything we have been told. None of us have reached what the model predicts is the peak. The peak is way out ahead of us if the model is correct. And yet it is happening everywhere. It's not just London. Everywhere with a high concentration of infections find that their R rate drops well below that of places with far fewer infections once it reaches a certain level. A level well below that that was given for herd immunity.

The model is fundamentally wrong. Or I'm fundamentally stupid. Or, at best for me, ill informed.

 

London is full of lovely, clean, special people. The rest of us are dirty savages.
Sorted.

 

FWIW:

 

Haven't read it yet, but just going to, thank you for the link.

 

Not sure it adds much more really. Cant say Im entirely convinced by what's happening in London either.

 

yeah that’s my Ill educated guess work.

 

Seems to offer a reasonable explanation but only time will tell.

 

"While there were estimated to be 4,320 daily infections in the north east and Yorkshire – the highest in the country – and 2,380 in the north west, there were just 23.9 in London."

Wonder who got 0.9 of an infection in London. If they only got 0.3 of an infection it would be worth it, you'd get over it with mild symptoms and probably be immune, but 0.9? I would imagine 0.9 is still pretty bad, you'd feel pretty crap with 0.9. You could probably still die. But you could never say you had the full Covid. You'd claim you had Covid but everyone would know you didn't have the full Covid. 90%er. Wastrel. He didn't really have it.

 

Not quite.
Article: https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...ursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

 

Read it now. Comments in the final paragraph completely contradict what was said previously. And it has also gone down the route of assuming that That London allows far more people to work at home, because, you know, we're all yokels and they're all sophisticated and that. They don't have care homes and cleaners and hospitals and minimum wage workers of all kinds, they're all working in the cloud, which is exactly why the underground was packed throughout. Yeah, well I work in Cudworth and what I do would blow their mind.

It's not without merit, and not without thought, but is completely unscientific, and it's just akin to me on here shooting my mouth off, even if they're scientists. Difference is, from a position of ignorance of all of us, I'm asking and they're telling and they really shouldn't do that under the guise of us hearing a scientific view.

Having said all that, thank you for the link, appreciated.

 

I've just checked the stats and (based on 2018 figures) more people work in manufacturing, construction and wholesale in London than there are people living in Sheffield.

One in 5 london workers work in education health or social care.

Between the two things I've mentioned above it adds up to more than the entire population of South Yorkshire

 

Well it’s obviously the government manipulation of er, well something.
If you look for conspiracy and cynicism you’ll find it no matter what the topic.

 

I commute, Silkstone Common to Sheffield. Not done it since Feb, but it would generally be same folk in same seats, 80% of the time.

 

The same is true in London. Exactly same people in the same carriages on the tube every day. That's London Fairy Land rather than London England.

 

Here's some more. The R in London was 2.3 at the start of lockdown.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-key-coronavirus-R-rate-falling-lockdown.html

 

I’ve had challenges with many of the stats that we see as things don’t correlate login ally in my opinion across the whole spectrum of what gets reported on.

I can only guess that the R rate in London is lower because more people have had the virus but they only record someone having had the virus where they are tested and show as positive. For example, I know of 4 people (family, friend, neighbours) who have all had the symptoms but none have been tested and therefore don’t show in any stAtistics.

I guess it’s fair to imagine that a similar thing had happened in London and probably, as someone stated earlier, started before the virus spread north and west. Hence the herd immunity impact would be greater and effected earlier.

I also have real issues with the global death rates and how these are calculated as, based on logic, how can places like China and Greece have been so (comparatively) lowly impacted.

Again, IMO, in the UK If any deceased person shows positive for C-19 then that is recorded as the cause of death but we know that a huge amount of people remain asymptomatic and therefore, regardless of age and underlying health conditions it is not necessarily the virus that caused death.

Until they have antibody testing etc. There are massive gaps that need filling in the data.