2nd Wave

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by dreamboy3000, Oct 24, 2020.

  1. Tyke_67

    Tyke_67 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks mate
     
  2. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    Life looks rather good in Sweden. A country not hiding away in fear.

     
  3. Redhelen

    Redhelen Well-Known Member

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    Looks very empty.
     
  4. Lor

    Lordtyke Well-Known Member

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    It looks even better in Norway and Finland

    Norway 51 deaths per million population (17,000 cases)
    Finland 64 deaths per million population (14,800 cases)
    Sweden 586 deaths per million population (110,000 cases)
     
  5. Sup

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    What are the deaths per million outside of places like Stockholm compared to inside?
     
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  6. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    This starts with the now-infamous Imperial College London report that modelled 500,000 deaths if no action was taken at all, and 250,000 deaths if restrictions were not tightened. This set us down the path of lockdown. Some argue that Imperial’s modelling may have come true had it not been for lockdown. But this does not explain Sweden. Academics there said its assumptions would mean 85,000 deaths if Sweden did not lock down. It did not and deaths are just under 6,000.
    This is what makes Sweden interesting to me, so yes they have had more deaths per capita than the nearest neighbour's. But surely the data available tells us something about our own modelling.
     
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  7. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    When deaths are added up in years to come from hospital appointments being canceled that 500000 figure might not be far off.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-professor-leading-hunt-coronavirus-jab.html

    That sounds promising. Those at the highest risk need the vaccine as soon as they can. With a bit of luck we might see some packed stadiums this season.
     
  8. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    I wonder if a vaccine would even work on the vulnerable. If you have a compromised immune system then a vaccine may be less than effective, that's one of the reasons Flu still kills the elderly despite a vaccine.
    Packed stadiums are some way off I feel.
     
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  9. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    Spoiler. You won't see packed stadia in the UK this season. You probably won't next season either.

    Most pandemics usually take 2-4 years to burn themselves out. While medical science has advanced, you are probably looking at 1-2 years before a working vaccine is available in the quantities required, and with the numbers currently objecting to any form of vaccination it is entirely possible that even if we get a vaccine we won't get sufficient levels of immunity to make it safe for large gatherings for a while after that.
     
  10. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    The really vulnerable don't have vaccines - that is why they try to vaccinate everybody for measles, because a small %age can't be vaccinated and will still benefit from everybody else being immune.
     
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  11. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    Brother in law works at a Police call centre. He is ex military and one of the most straight laced people you'd wish to meet. He has just contracted it out of nowhere after sanitising, social distancing and wearing a face mask. His full family are in isolation having contracted the virus presumably from him.
     
  12. Sco

    Scoff Well-Known Member

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    There were a couple of jokes about Swedes that might help with the understanding of their situation:

    1). How do you tell an extrovert Swede? - He's looking at your feet

    2). When the Covid-19 social distancing was introduced, and governments advised people to stay 2m apart, a lot of Swedes asked why they had to get so close to each other!
     
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  13. #FWF

    #FWF Well-Known Member

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    Just checked and I have the same BMI as you.

    It's tough being gorgeous ;)
     
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  14. Stephen Dawson

    Stephen Dawson Well-Known Member

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    I'm no scientist but I think the key to beating this lies with the asymptomatic carriers and finding out why it affects people differently. I know people have different immune systems but that seems a bit of a cop out to me.
     
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  15. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    Then we will be wishing for the good old days we are currently living through, as life would be an whole lot worse. Just take Football as an example. What will season pass sales be if next August packed stadiums is still not allowed? Clubs wouldn't survive because fans up and down the country wouldn't pay out for another season like this. Many people would have the vaccine to get back to normality. If even allowing yourself to be jabbed means another few years of restrictions like our current ones then they will likely refuse to take it.

    In the article Adrian Hill says......

    If we reach herd immunity in the UK by Spring we don't need restrictions anymore on our population, government can stop paying people as people will be able to go back to work in shut industries and we can start our recovery. Now people coming in to the country well that's another story.....I suspect the government will either want people to prove before entering that they have had a vaccine or they take before leaving the airport a quick turnaround test before they can go on their way.
     
  16. JamDrop

    JamDrop Well-Known Member

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    Someone has to do it :D
     
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  17. Jay

    Jay Well-Known Member

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    It won't, no, or be far less effective at any rate. A vaccine stimulates the immune system, if your immune system isn't up to much it won't do anything. That's where heard immunity comes in, if people with healthy immune systems are immune, via contracting the virus previously or vaccination, they won't pass it on to vulnerable people.
     
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  18. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    It is working similar on the elderly apparently....

    https://m.timesofindia.com/home/sci...se-in-elderly-report/articleshow/78868133.cms
     
  19. Redstone

    Redstone Well-Known Member

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    It's that which puzzles me with the people who are saying herd immunity isn't possible and fear of re infection. Under those circumstances a vaccine would do very little to help would it not?
     
  20. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    I suspect we will be expected to maybe have an annual vaccine to keep it away. We all need to play our part in getting life back to normal. If only so more tax gets paid in to the system so our NHS doesn't suffer from a lack of funds.....

    https://www.theguardian.com/society...1bn-for-second-covid-wave-and-onset-of-winter
     
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