Not sure why we've drifted in the betting, having seen the team. 3/1 = 25%. But this is a better team than the bookies have been basing their assessments on. No sure thing, but we've better than a 25% chance of winning this. Get on!
I may be missing something here but why are Plymouth 17/10 at home to Orient? Mid tab Orient are favourites with the bookies while Plymouth are top of the league. Sent from my GT-I9195 using Tapatalk
I've recently started dabbling with an online account (Betway)and am just about breaking even so far. What I don't understand is this percentage business. Could you explain to a complete betting beginner how 3 to 1 = 25%
No worries, POR. 'Value' is a crucial concept if you bet on a regular basis. If you regularly get odds that represent better than the selections chance then you will make a profit in the longer term (always assuming of course that your assessment of the 'true odds' is right!). An even money shot is equal to 1/1. Divide the bottom figure by the sum of the top and bottom figures (1 divided by 2) and you will get 0.5 or, expressed as a percentage, 50%. If you think betting on the toss of a coin, tails or heads represents a 50% chance, but someone offers you 11/10 (47.6%) then you have a bet. The 'true odds' show that the probability is greater than the odds offered imply. 2/1 becomes 1 divided by 3 = 0.33 or 33%. 3/1 becomes 1 divided by 4 = 0.25 or 25%. Barnsley tonight were offered at 3/1 (25%). So if you think that if this game was played four times and Barnsley (in these circumstances) would win it more than one in four times, then the 3/1 is a value bet. In my long term betting on horseracing, I aim for a 33% or better win rate. If I get 35% in the medium to long term, I make a substantial profit. It follows from that that the average price of the winners I back needs to be 2/1 or better. That doesn't stop me backing horses at evens (1/1) if I think they have a better than 50% chance of winning. This is a subject that has fascinated me over the years, and more so since I finished work. It's a fairly simple concept - though one which people often over-complicate. As thereev would say, hope this helps!
The fact that Barnsley have just gone 1-0 down reminds me of something else I meant to say. The fact that you're wrong about individual selections is matterless, provided that your longer-term assessments are reasonably accurate. Get your odds and probabilities reasonably right and you will make money. I'm often asked for my opinions about certain horse races, or meetings as a whole. It follows from what I've said that if I hit 33% winners or (nirvana) 35%, my opinions will throw up far more losers than winners. That doesn't matter so long as my percentages are up to the mark. Difficult concept to get your head around - but you have to be happy with losing in order to win!
I play a lot of poker and it's a similar equation sometimes. If the odds are in my favour lump on. Yes I will lose sometimes but if you take the view it's a never ending game as long as you are on the side of 50.1% it doesn't matter
