“We are 2 weeks behind Italy”

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by wakeyred, Mar 25, 2020.

  1. wak

    wakeyred Well-Known Member

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    25th March - UK 465
    11th March -Italy 827
     
  2. Bruce

    Bruce Member

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    Not the number that’s important,
    But the growth trajectory. First chart on this link shows we are still on the same growth rate as Italy.

    the second chart shows why New York are so worried

    https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
     
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  3. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, posted in wrong place.
     
  4. pon

    pontyender Well-Known Member

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    The difference will be demographics: Italy have an older population, multi-generation households etc.
     
  5. YTB

    YTBFC Active Member

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    Only, the figures we are releasing are not true.

    Read the thread.

     
  6. sadbrewer

    sadbrewer Well-Known Member

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    I don't think it's true...certainly my own council is reporting the figures as they are....other Councils will be the same....they only need to be added up.
     
  7. Jimmy viz

    Jimmy viz Well-Known Member

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  8. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    The figures are massively overstated versus all other viruses as they include anyone who tested positive for Covid but had other life threatening conditions, whereas flu figures only include EXCESS deaths ie where the virus was the primary cause of death on the death certificate.
     
  9. Don

    Donny-Red Well-Known Member

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    Yeah cos obviously people are being trampled to death by bulls and if they test positive they’re being attributed as Covid deaths.

    realistically, what % would you guess that puts our numbers out by?
     
  10. Don

    Donny-Red Well-Known Member

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    Seriously I’m genuinely amused by the conspiracy theories about government statistics.

    is this some Trumpian belief in a ‘deep state’ or just people who choose to run with nonsense internet stories rather than learning how our country actually works.
     
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  11. JamDrop

    JamDrop Well-Known Member

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    I don’t understand either. Are there suddenly loads of people on ventilators in hospitals for Covid who are also being stabbed or something?
     
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  12. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    In flu the piece I read in the Spectator estimates that if flu were measured the same way the figures for flu would be 75% higher. Honestly no idea how it would work the other way round if you see what I mean. I'm not saying it's wrong it's the wrong way to measure it, I'm just saying when we compare it to viruses we know as a baseline it's important to understand we aren't comparing apples with apples.
     
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  13. Tyk

    Tyketical Masterstroke Well-Known Member

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    Well, in the case of the 18 year old who has been cited as the youngest person to die in the UK for example, they were in hospital in intensive care with unrelated medical issues (I'm sorry, I have no idea what they were). The day before death, when already in a critical condition, they tested positive for Covid. This counts as a Covid death in the stats. It wouldn't have if they'd contracted flu etc.
     
  14. Don

    Donny-Red Well-Known Member

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    I’d suspect the Spectator is just looking for an angle to tell a different story to everyone else.

    I’ve said before that the biggest issue with reading any figure is understanding the question.

    but if I were you, I’d stop looking for holes in the stats, ways to mistreat or mistrust them or looking at averages. Just look at the graphs and examine the upward curve. Look at ours, Italy’s and Spain’s, then look at Germany and S Korea.
    Then look at what’s happened in those countries, and whether you think we will follow the trend from Italy / Spain or suddenly show signs of being more like S Korea.

    Because like the experts keep saying, the only way to change the spread of a virus is to change the behaviour of its host.
     
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  15. Sup

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    No but people can have two things at once or contract something while they're being treated for something else.

    I read that someone died of a heart attack in Italy (or Spain). The coroner's report stated that the cause of death was a heart attack due to heart disease but because the person had tested positive for covid-19 it is a death due to that in the statistics.
    Had he tested positive for influenza it would not have been recorded as a death due to influenza.

    It isn't that anyone thinks they're fiddling the figures or anything it's simply that because they don't know enough about it yet they're being ultra cautious and putting it down to that when really they shouldn't be from a medical point of view.
     
  16. YTB

    YTBFC Active Member

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    If they aren't fiddling with figures, why for the first time (see the shared tweet further up) yesterday did they not release the daily numbers until 11:30pm at night, stated - for the first time - that these aren't over a full 24hr period, and told the media that they can't add a death from COVID-19 to their figure unless given permission by a family member (which is an outright lie)?

    Many people now believe because the number of deaths 'appear' to have halved yesterday, that we are winning the fight. Those who just take such things at face value.

    My missus' boss - leading the COVID-19 response at her hospital - was sent home for 14 days this morning as he tested positive. I can assure folk, this is very real and the NHS is massively overwhelmed, un-prepared and seriously struggling. The official figures are bollocks.
     
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  17. Sup

    SuperTyke Well-Known Member

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    I meant that they weren't fiddling the figures the other way by including other deaths in the figures. Id I'd have absolutely no idea if they are underreported or why
     
  18. sadbrewer

    sadbrewer Well-Known Member

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    The figures didn't come out as late as 11.30...they were late, but out sometime before nine O'Clock....or at least they were showing them on The Guardian update by nine.
     
  19. YTB

    YTBFC Active Member

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    Sorry, 11pm.

     
  20. YTB

    YTBFC Active Member

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    Me neither.

    They've updated that official twitter account every afternoon. Until yesterday when it became 11pm. And with the caveat that those figures don't cover a 24hr period.

    It's confusing and unhelpful.
     
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