“We are 2 weeks behind Italy”

Even if we don't have the massive rise in deaths from poverty that I am expecting and we are limited to deaths as a direct result of Covid-19, the red line will climb above the green line. For a time, significantly. However, when (if) Covid-19 is no longer in the population, the red line will fall below the green line and stay there for an extended period.

 

There is less travel and less car crashes (and pollution related illness), fewer people taking risks and fewer injuries, less people drinking and fighting and less youths around to stab each other, etc so deaths from those will fall. However, cancer patients are at higher risk with suppressed immune systems (and many will have delayed treatments), more DIY accidents with more people at home and unfortunately more domestic abuse.So we will see less deaths from some causes and more deaths from other causes - so we can't compare the figures to previous years.

 

Yesterday we were 438 behind Italy from 14 days ago. 14 days from today Italy was on 1266 and we are on 759 so now 507 less deaths from the same time. We were always going to get some horrible triple digit days at some point and we will see worse days than today before things get better.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

For deaths per million population we have 11. Too many are treating it like a long bank holiday and a tougher lock down can't be far away.

 

We had quite a mild winter too

 

Wales is 7-10 days behind London now. Expecting the curve to rise significantly now.

 

But what we won’t see is the number of deaths that would have happened if we’d done nothing.

As stated by cleverer people than me; many look back at the Y2K bug and say it was a waste of resource and panic as nothing happened, but the truth is - nothing happened because it was mitigated.

any 12 yr old can tell you that you can’t measure the outcome of an experiment without a control sample.

 

Sweden’s about as close as we’ll get, I guess...

 

Or Belarus.