Bolton v Birmingham

This is magnificent entertainment.

I think the point is that if (and it's obviously the biggest "IF" in the history of the universe) we win ALL our games, we are bound to overtake Bolton if they lose to Birmingham.

If however Bolton win, we can't catch them. We can however then overtake Birmingham, as we'd be 2 points behind them with a game in hand.

Or summat.

 

Great, I’m handing over to you. Goodnight, all.

 

We would be 5 behind them both but would have a game in hand on both and have to play Bolton. So if we won every game, one of which would be against Bolton, and they won every remaining game except that one that they lost against us, we would finish 1 pt above Bolton.

To put another way:
They would be 5 ahead if they lose tomorrow with 6 to play

If we were to win every game that would be 21 points. By definition it would mean Bolton could only get a maximum of 15 more points cos they would have lost against us.

So I agree. Technically it is still in our hands regardless of tomorrow's result. The question is who do we believe will have the stronger run in.

 

Great, I'm handing over to you. Goodnight, all.

 

If we win all of our games we will stay up. In fact we would finish about 14th which would make this thread moot.

The reason - in my opinion - it's not in our hands is that we cannot afford to drop points but we need teams above us to drop points. I understand the permutations but I don't think they are remotely realistic.

 

Realistic isn't the issue though is it. The point was that technically it IS in our hands and that is true - we are not yet reliant on other teams losing. If we win em all we stay up regardless.

 

Better to keep gap as small as possible a Birmingham win would increase the pressure on the bottom3. 7 games to play I think we need 10 points irrespective of other results Reading still have some work to do.

 

My head hurts after reading this thread.

 

If we had won a few more of these recent games where we should have done, we wouldnt be in this mess.
But I agree that we're still just about in charge of our own destiny, and we're also very lucky that after our appalling run of games without wins, we're still just 2 points at the moment behind the safety mark (21st place).

 

We’ve failed to take all our chances to get out of this mess, remember we had a game in hand at one point and now look at us. We are going to go down it’s not an if, but when now in my opinion

 

That happens to me with most threads on here.

 

If it's a draw tomorrow we'd be three behind Birmingham and six behind Bolton to play and a game in hand other both. So if we beat Bolton then everybody wins every game wouldn't that put us all on the same points?

 

Yes it would, and then there IS a theoretical possibility of it not 100% being in our hands. BUT we have a 9 goal advantage on Birmingham and we are talking about the scenario when we each win every game, so none our goal differences could get worse. Theirs would have to be +10 better than ours over 6 games.

Whilst I see the hole in the absolute guarantee it is in our hands, realistically I still think the statement holds. Win em all and we stay up.

 

Can’t be bothered to check but wouldn’t we be safe on goal difference?

 

Not if Birmingham win every game and out score us by three goals to one.

 

That isn’t a hole in the theory as it is completely in our hands to get a better goal difference. It makes it harder but still something we can have a direct impact on by scoring loads and not conceeding many. To me, not in our hands means us just having to hope and unable to have an impact at all.

 

But that is in our hands still. We can’t control what they do but we do have the opportunity to score the same amount or more than they do. Or even slightly less as ours is better at the moment.

 

It's not realistic we win all our games though is it?

I thought we were talking about mathematical possibilities not realistic outcomes?

 

Sadly that is true Menai, we've thrown away so many chances to put ourselves out of the bottom 5.
And while we still have a chance of doing it in the remaining games, the odds are very litte to none arent they.

 

You're right in a way. But where the hole comes in is that even if we win em all 20-0 we can't control whether Brum win em all 23-0