Dazed and confused as a club

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board ARCHIVE' started by Orsen Kaht, Nov 25, 2015.

  1. Ors

    Orsen Kaht Active Member

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    I’ve read the detailed comments of Patrick Cryne twice now. While most of the things he says appear perfectly reasonable in themselves, overall there is an air of defeatism about his comments. It’s good to have a longer term plan, but can you afford to focus on that to the exclusion of what’s going on right now?

    Our aim of bringing players through the academy and developing them seems to be failing. The two good prospects we’ve produced have been sold for little money. True, we may reap a dividend for one of them with a massive sell-on fee. But that’s out of our control. When we did have control we failed to recognise the true potential of that player and consequently failed to realise his true value. Would he have helped us avoid relegation from the Championship? Who knows, but if you accept that as a possibility (and six more points would have kept us up) the 2.2M we received for him looks a poor return against 5M pounds of lost revenue which the club states relegation cost us. It’s certainly not a ringing endorsement of our ability to identify suitable talent for (or from) the academy. Beyond the two players sold on cheaply, we have had a procession of graduates who are either inconsistent or (in most cases) simply not good enough.

    Our aim to make the club viable/self-funding/able to pay it’s way also seems to be failing. We are told that if Mr Cryne left, the club would be in real difficulties. So it doesn’t look as though we’ve made much progress there either. We are now staring at a further relegation, and it’s difficult to see how that will improve our financial fortunes. It would cost us more money to replace the manager. But what would relegation cost us? (My guess is a further 1.5 – 2M). Mr Cryne says that we would have to spend 5M to stay in the Championship if we ever returned there. But Ben Mansford says that the revenue loss of dropping out of that league is 5M. We’d have the same ground and presumably the same infrastructure, so operating at the higher level (with increased merchandising, programme sales, catering, etc) could surely only be of benefit?

    In terms of recruitment other than to the academy, we are manifestly failing. We have acquired an unbalanced team with limited talent and a lack of experience or physical presence. Above all, we have absolutely no natural leadership on the field. Most clubs may use statistics in identifying recruits, but it’s plain to see that they are not benefitting us. I’d much sooner see an old-fashioned manager who uses his gut instincts to identify suitable players and can then motivate them. Our best three current players were recruited by Danny Wilson.

    And so to our current manager, who is manifestly failing. “We are playing really well”, Lee Johnson says. They say that the sign of a good team is that they win when they aren’t playing well. What does that say about a team that loses when it is playing well? Our style of play is pedestrian. Our defence is the third worst in this league. On a run such as the one we’re on, wouldn’t the first priority be to stem the flow of soft goals against us? Even if it means ‘parking the bus’. That has to be the start. Johnson has to stop the rot – if he’s given the chance.

    I don’t have any magic solutions to all this. I would however start with expending proper money on a manager of real ability and ideally, also experience. We need someone with transformational skills, but also the wherewithal to steady the ship immediately. I firmly believe that everything flows from that appointment. In the medium term we also need a change in the structure and philosophy of the club. At the moment, we are failing on almost every level.
     
  2. pom

    pompey_red Well-Known Member

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    There needs to be a coherent plan thats for sure. When the proverbial hits the fan you must first deal with the initial threat , that is relegation this season. All the rest can be dealt with once calm has been restored.

    To address this do we sack a manager and gamble the new one will be any different, do we stick with him and gamble he can change things around. Do we stick or twist with the playing squad and actually buy some players who are capable at this level.

    for me it seems LJ is here for the longer term, if he wasnt sacked after the cup defeat then he's unlikely to be now, lose on saturday of course and the clamour might just be enough for PC.

    If LJ is still here in January he needs 4 or 5 players, wether he understands this of course is open to debate, we need players who we buy or sign permantly who want to play for us and bust a gut long term, If they arent saleable assets long term then it doesnt matter... we go back to dealing with the threat here and now... and thats relegation.
     
  3. CrossTyke

    CrossTyke Member

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    Good post Orsen
     
  4. Redstar

    Redstar Well-Known Member

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    Good post

    On the £5 million comment...

    I think PC is saying you'd have to spend the extra money in an attempt to stay up - at least, so in effect you are almost no better off
     
  5. Dr Zazlos

    Dr Zazlos Banned Idiot

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    Good Post Mr O

    The last paragraph:

    :I don’t have any magic solutions to all this. I would however start with expending proper money on a manager of real ability and ideally, also experience. We need someone with transformational skills, but also the wherewithal to steady the ship immediately. I firmly believe that everything flows from that appointment. In the medium term we also need a change in the structure and philosophy of the club. At the moment, we are failing on almost every level. "

    Sums it up to perfection. If were gunna stick with a manager for the long term for gods sake make sure you appoint the correct one to start with instead of persevering with one who is out of his depth
     
  6. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    If you look at our league positions over the 10 years since we last achieved promotion under Andy Ritchie, and use those as the basis for your analysis, you realise that the club has been struggling ever since promotion. Actually, we never really established in the higher division, avoiding relegation by the skin of our teeth at the end of every season in spite of heavy spending by our owner on recruiting new players and new managers. I am sorry, but on the basis of that period, I believe that your analysis is flawed. It is flawed because it begins by assuming a solution that you believe to be the right one and selectively finds evidence that you mistakenly believe supports your case.

    The second tier is now a very different place. because of the effect that the Premier League has had. It is now full of teams who support their spending on players and their wages with Premier League parachute payments. Many more have very rich owners who have bought second tier football clubs as vehicles for their ambition to reach and compete in the Premier League. It is a very difficult place to survive without money, and make no mistake about it, the amount of money that a club spends, rather than the manager than it hires, is the biggest indicator for success in that division.

    The owner of Barnsley Football club failed to understand that simple rule. Although he spent his money, he did not spend enough to make a difference, and he compounded his error by believing your theory that the manager was the real problem. As a result, he continually changed managers, and his managers continually changed the players, always searching for bargains and never able to buy enough quality. This is the second major mistake of Patrick Cryne's reign, that quickly becomes apparent if you analyse the reasons for our failure properly. Stable teams are constructed slowly over time. They have a spine that has been together over a long period and an understanding and way of doing things that develops from a long association together. Improvements are made through gradual change, by replacing a few players each season with players who improve the overall strength. It is not exciting, it is not innovative and it is not game changing, but it is stable and it is the way that we stayed in the second tier for 20 years, until a year in the Premier League blew away those long established principles. For the last 10 years, we have changed the manager and all the players at regular intervals. There has been no opportunity to build a foundation, never mind anything above that.

    Our current problems stem from years of doing the wrong thing, and then dropping a division and finding that the SCMP rules in the lower division have actually encouraged the club, to do the wrong thing. It has been SCMP that has driven the clubs decision-making for the last two years rather than an imperative to return to the higher division as quickly as possible. These rules have forced the club to get rid of all its higher paid players and replace them with lower paid ones. Many of those are young players because not only are they paid less, they also offer an opportunity for improvement. We are still adapting to the new rules and are learning how best to exploit them, but it is no longer a case of spend, spend, spend as it was in the league above.

    The fact that Lee Johnson has not been sacked yet is actually an encouraging sign. It suggests that the board has learned from the mistakes of the past and it suggests that they are prepared to build patiently. Unfortunately, we the fans, will also need to have patience.
     
  7. LDR

    LDRed Well-Known Member

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    In my opinion there's two problems with the football club at the moment.

    Lee Johnson and Ben Mansford.
     
  8. Dr Zazlos

    Dr Zazlos Banned Idiot

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    Sorry Red Rain but its an absolute disaster persevering with Johnson.

    The board has made mistake after mistake, Johnson being one of the biggest of all.

    Your asking the fans for patience but with our league form and the embarrassing exit from the FA Cup that patience is all but extinguished.

    Its very difficult to show patience when the trapdoor to League 2 is looming.

    I though the clubs remit for this campaign was a top 6 position?

    Pie in the sky
     
  9. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    The points that I raise relate to strategy and the longer term. They are about learning from past success and past failure as illustrated by a period of almost 40 years. They are about long term thinking not short term gratification.

    I think that we have a common interest and we share a common goal but that we do not share the same language. Yours is the language of panic. Mine is the language of logic. Unfortunately, it means that we can never communicate effectively with one another.
     
  10. Dr Zazlos

    Dr Zazlos Banned Idiot

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    My language is not one of panic, its more about facing the realisation of the fact that if the club persevere with Johnson we are heading to League 2.
    If that's long term thinking then so be it but the club will be the biggest loser when the fanbase starts dissolving
     
  11. Con

    Conan Troutman Well-Known Member

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    Couple of points you have made which are totally incorrect in my opinion. You say that in the Championship we avoided relegation by the skin of our teeth. In our first season we were 8 points clear of the drop zone, 7 points in Mark Robins's first season and 14 points clear in his only full season. I'd say that's quite comfortable.

    Teams are not constructed gradually these days. A manager comes in, assesses the squad, brings in a few players he thinks might make a difference then hopes for he best. Justin Edinburgh got the Gillingham job about one week before we appointed Johnson. Hasselbaink has been in the job about twelve months. Finally, look at the team at the top of the league. They appointed their manager a week after we did, he has brought in a few excellent loan signings and they look favourites to win the title. A good manager with a decent track record gets results. A poor manager with no track record hides behind other factors.
     
  12. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    It is the language of panic because you refuse to acknowledge and learn from the mistakes of the past. In fact, your solution to our current problem is to repeat the solution that has failed the club repeatedly over the last ten years, simply because you can think of nothing else.
     
  13. Ors

    Orsen Kaht Active Member

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    Good Morning Red Rain.

    I am not offering an analysis - simply my observations on how the club has failed in terms of it's own stated long term plan. If you read again, you will see that I said: "It’s good to have a longer term plan, but can you afford to focus on that to the exclusion of what’s going on right now?" I do think that we agree on much. One of the biggest mistakes we made in my view was to frustrate Mark Robins by undermining his ability to steadily build a competitive squad. As you rightly point out, that would have taken more investment on the part of the owner.

    Where I can't agree with you is in the notion that we should stick with any manager just for the sake of it. Right now, Lee Johnson's continuance is threatening our League One status. The drama queens would say he is also threatening our existence. I do believe that he will make a reasonable manager in time, but he is not the right person for us at this point.

    As for any "solution", I would refer you to where I say:

    "I don’t have any magic solutions to all this. I would however start with expending proper money on a manager of real ability and ideally, also experience. We need someone with transformational skills, but also the wherewithal to steady the ship immediately. I firmly believe that everything flows from that appointment. In the medium term we also need a change in the structure and philosophy of the club. At the moment, we are failing on almost every level."

    That philosophy in my view would best include building steadily as you suggest. But not at the cost of ignoring a drastic decline in the short term.
     
  14. Dr Zazlos

    Dr Zazlos Banned Idiot

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    Absolute Rubbish!

    What you advocate Makes sense IF the correct man is in post.

    At the moment that is not the case. No logic in staying with this manager because we've sacked too many before him!

    Lets keep Johnson and start life in League 2 cause were heading there whether you like it or not!
     
  15. Ged

    Geddiswasguud Member

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    Yes we do need a long term strategy and its encouraging to see these plans in place, however things have been an absolute disaster so far this season, for all the reasons we have been reminded of......to name a couple :
    1. Recruitment
    2.The coach and his style of play etc
    The trouble with all this is with the 4th or 5th highest wage budget/ income in the division, how many people would accept that we are in a relegation struggle and still purchase season tickets, because we need patience and err............go down.
    Its ok having patience, I agree, we all do but to what end? No one wants to pay to watch us lose every week. Also the long term, lets build a the team.....we all know that the second anyone shows any kind of promise they WILL be sold.
    So where does it all leave us?
    Well.....long term strategy.....Good....." like that" but we need to inter disperse a more realistic plan that involves us been a little bit more street wise in the division.....will that compromise the playing style....yes it will.
    This is a tough old league, I know we have had big problems getting experienced players ie Lita & Treacey, but now we go the other way......and now know this is not a division that is tolerant with kids.
    So lets get the players in to keep us safe for a start (still cant believe I'm saying that) and for errrr goodness sake employ some tactics for this league, we can get some points on the board. Then and only then build the young uns round it.
     
  16. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    The last man in the managers job was probably the greatest manager in our history, if his achievement in his previous tenure are used as a guide. And yet his end was the same as all the rest, after just 14 months in the job, because he did not turn around the slide. What chance has the next guy, and the one after that etcetera, etcetera, if the man who took us to the Premier League, for the only time in our history, does not have enough credibility to last more than 14 months. It is time to try something different. It is time to try patience.
     
  17. Ors

    Orsen Kaht Active Member

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    Two questions then, RR.

    How many more displays such as we've seen this season would you be prepared to tolerate in pursuit of this patient strategy?

    Also, how far down the league structure would you be prepared to see us go?
     
  18. Dr Zazlos

    Dr Zazlos Banned Idiot

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    Exactly Mr O !
     
  19. Ged

    Geddiswasguud Member

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    Totally agree Orsen.
     
  20. Red

    Red Rain Well-Known Member

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    You say that you have no magic solutions, and then you tell me that you want to change the manager again. This sound as though it might be your solution, but then again, you are probably right, because it really isn't. We have tried sacking managers, and we have tried doing that at regular and increasingly short intervals over the last ten years. But we have not tried being patient and building slowly. It is not rocket science, but it has not been tried for many years. Why not give it a go.
     

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