Yes - don't go. Pikey extraveganzer. Donny after the event is better - but quite a few wandering around in there wanting trouble.
Yes - ignore anyone who gives you a tip. If they knew anything they wouldn't share it. Having said that, Stradivarius should hopefully win the big one.
The rain that fell earlier in the week has made this year's St Leger meeting extremely tricky. I couldn't put anything up at Donny yesterday, and I'd say confident bets are hard to come by today, except for the big race itself. 3.35 St Leger Stakes Coronet is an improving filly. She has been beaten pointless three times in Group 1 company by Enable, who is exceptional. I'm not sure she is quite good enough up against the colts here. Stradivarius won the Goodwood Cup (Group 1) but was receiving nearly a stone from Big Orange, who was unsuited by the slower going. He is deserted by Frankie Dettori for Coronet here.Crystal Ocean is an improving colt, and also won at Goodwood last time out at Group 3 level. He has twice been beaten in Group 2company, and I'd doubt whether his rate of progress is quite up to taking this race. Raheen House won a Group 3 last time out from yesterday's Doncaster Cup winner, but his earlier form behind Permian and Khalidi leaves him with something to find against at least a couple of these. Defoe narrowly won a Group 3 at Newbury last time but to my mind is not improving rapidly enough to be competitive with the best of these. Count Octave looks held by Stradivarius and Venice Beach on earlier form. All that leaves us with the O'Brien contingent (including Rekindling, who is trained by son Joseph). CAPRI finished in front of Douglas McArthur, Venice Beach, Rekindling and The Anvil in the Epsom Derby (Group 1) before taking the Irish Derby (Group 1) when Douglas McArthur and The Anvil were again behind him. He stayed on well that day and being by Galileo, looks very likely to stay the Leger trip. He is by far and away the most proven of this field at Group 1 level and to my mind is the class horse of the race. I think he has better than the 22% chance which his odds of 7/2 (general) imply. The remaining races are imponderables for me given the state of the ground (drying but still on the slow side) and the competitiveness of their makeup. While stressing that these are no-bet races as far as I am concerned, my opinion of the likely winners is: 1.50 Lancelot Du Lac 2.25 Aclaim 3.00 Hey Gaman 4.10 Rhosneigr 4.45 Kryptos 5.55 Game Starter Usual health warnings apply! There are still bits of 250/1 available for BFC to win promotion!
CAPRI Won 3/1 1.50 Lancelot Du Lac Unplaced 2.25 Aclaim Won 3/1 3.00 Hey Gaman 2nd 4.10 Rhosneigr Unplaced 4.45 Kryptos Won 9/2 5.55 Game Starter Won 5/6 Meeting: Wins 3 Runs 10 (30%) Stakes 100 Returns 120 P/L +20 (+20%) [Only Capri included for yesterday as my advice was otherwise 'no bet' and the 1.50 to 5.55 selections were 'opinion only'] An example of how even a small 30% strike rate can bring a longer term profit provided you bet only at the right prices. Also shows:1) why I am wrong more often than right and 2) why that doesn't matter!
