Having no expertise in this sport myself, can I ask you what chance the revamped Ferrari car has of allowing Vettel to beat Hamilton this season? If you could give your estimate of Sebastian's percentage chance of winning the title that would be particularly helpful. Thanks in advance.
I must own up to being a saddo F1 nerd. Very difficult to predict as testing always involves sandbagging by the teams. Ferrari are clearly fast and look more solid than last season when they performed well in testing and faded in the actual competition. Mercedes rarely show pace in testing preferring long stints and getting the miles in. I would probably say Hamilton is favourite to win as Ferrari is suspect on reliability. Also Vettel may be given a hard time by Raikkonen who , if he finds the car suits his style, should not be discounted and will be a handful. Also you cannot write off Red Bull as they have a habit of developing the car during the season so could finish strongly. Overall, regardless of what any thinks about Hamilton's social life , if his head is in the right place he is the fastest true racer and most gifted natural driver in the current batch although Verstappen is in the same mould but has that lack of maturity and tactical nous that Hamilton had in his earlier years (but a fast learner). Sorry for waffle, but overall, given the huge changes in the cars this year it is difficult to call. I am going for 70% likelihood that Hamilton will secure the title.
Testing is really hard to judge how the season will pan out as so many teams don't want to show their hands. I think there's a very high chance that Mercedes will be the strongest again with Red Bull and Ferrari following. I think there's more chance of a Red Bull championship than a Ferrari one though.
As there has been some fairly big changes to the cars design it's difficult to predict, one things for sure is it probably won't be that close, one team will have got the car pretty much bang on and others will have missed something fundamental to performance. Brawn did it in 2009, then Red Bull at the next design change followed by Mercedes with the engine changes.
Thanks for these views guys. That's interesting Tekktyke, because your estimate would make Hamilton something like a 1/2 on shot, whereas he is generally available at Evens. Vettel is available at 4/1, suggesting a 20% chance. Not sure I'll play, but it might be an interesting season - the first post-Bernie season too!
Its an impossible question to answer until the first race or 2 has been run as we have no real idea of the relative speed of the cars. Pre season testing is notoriously unreliable - except where McClaren are concerned where their cars are even more unreliable. Hamilton on evens sounds about right - I'd expect him to be top Mercedes driver. If the Ferrari is quick and reliable its by no means certain Vettel will be the top driver and as others have said Red Bull may well be in the mix. Come back after 3 grands prix and I think we may well have a much better idea
Red Bull have arguably the best driver (if albeit a little unpredictable) in Max Verstappen. If the car is up to it I reckon Max could take some stopping. I also think many will underestimate Bottas, as he'll be seen as a number 2 driver at Mercedes, when I think he'll prove to be a force now he's in a quicker car. I think the value goes well beyond Hamilton in my opinion. Sent from space using satellites and things
Max verstappen is in my opinion vastly overrated and is being judged on his age and not his performances. Ricciardo is by far a better driver. My tip for best my the surprise of the season is Kimi. In a stable car he can be like light my.
I think Ricciardo is the better of the 2 Red Bull drivers too. And his smile around the paddock is infectious and great to see. I think Max can be too arrogant and it will cost him. He has a very bright future though.
