FAO orsenkaht

Had a £1 reversed f/c best odds guaranteed. Got 4/1 and 10/1 got £27.50 back. Is that right? Cheers.

 

The results page is showing £24.75 for the Computer straight forecast, so it looks about right at your prices. Must confess it's not a bet I do very often - I tend to play in singles.

 

Cheers.

 

Anything for today mate?

 

Not with strongest confidence:

2.00 Huntingdon HUMPHREY BOGART 6/4
3.30 Leicester PHOTOGRAPHER 9/4
4.10 Redcar LEADER'S LEGACY 5/1

 

The money for HEARTWARMING (2.20 Nottingham) looks significant on her debut today (7/2 from 6/1). Connections produced her half-sister to go very close at Royal Ascot last season.

 

Got anything for today matey?

 

Rain has come to most parts and the racing today is very low grade. Those two factors combined always make punting nigh on impossible. Better stuff tomorrow, with the first day of the Derby Meeting, about which more later.

 

Caution is urged, as rain is in the air. However:

Epsom Friday

2.00 The starting point looks to be the race at Newbury in which Marie’s Diamond finished third and It’s The Only Way fourth. That looks strong form. Mendoza, Usain Boat and Cosmic Law all look likely improvers, but my instinct is that the Godolphin colt True Belief will come on a good deal for his York fourth, where he ran a very good time. He is 4/1, having been available at 5’s earlier today, which lends support.

3.00 Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Cracksman is probably the best horse in training in Europe at present. He can’t sensibly be backed here at 1/3 but he can’t be opposed. He acts on soft, and is by Frankel. Just enjoy watching Frankie scoot home on him.

3.45 A competitive race, but Ajman King (winner of his last three starts) looks easily the most progressive. His last win was over this course and distance, which is always a positive. 7/4 as I write.

4.30 The Oaks (Group 1)

The third classic of the season, and the starting point has to be Aidan O’Brien’s squadron of five runners. The highest rated of the Ballydoyle entry of five is Bye Bye Baby, who won at Group 3 level last time out. That is not earth-shattering form, and Ryan Moore prefers Magic Wand, who won the Cheshire Oaks (only Listed grade these days) by 3.5 lengths from Forever Together, who could well improve here. Flattering is out of a very lowly-rated mare, and finished third to Perfect Clarity in the Lingfield Oaks Trial and she will struggle to turn that form around here with her conqueror. Aidan’s other runner, I Can Fly is one of only two of this field to have competed at Group 1 level, but that was when running 11 of 15 in the 1,000 Guineas, finishing some 12 lengths behind Wild Illusion, about whom more later. In summary, while Aidan’s contestants have always to be respected at this level, this bunch look short of his usual quality of competitor, and I am not keen on any of them.

Perfect Clarity (Clive Cox) has won both her starts, including the Lingfield Oaks Trial last time, when the poorest of Aidan’s entries was only 2.5 lengths away. She will improve, but that standard does not look good enough as it stands. Give And Take (William Haggas) won the Musidora at York but that race didn’t look a vintage edition, and the run gave enough cause to doubt that Give And Take would get the extra furlong and a half here. Haggas would have had a better chance with Sea Of Class, but inexplicably decided that she was too inexperienced to take her chance here. 2.5 lengths behind Give And Take at York was Ejtyah, trained by David Simcock, who was having only her second run, and to my eyes looked as though she had the far greater scope for further improvement. Simcock has not been in a hurry with this daughter of Frankel, and at 20/1 in a few places, I think she is over-priced.

All of which brings us on to Wild Illusion, trained by Charlie Appleby for Godolphin. Having made a winning debut at Yarmouth, she won on her third and final start at two when taking the Group1 Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly on Arc Day last October. She stayed on strongly over a mile there on good to soft, which taken with the fact that she is by Dubawi, suggests that she should handle the likely soft conditions at Epsom. Her only run this season was when fourth in the 1,000 Guineas (Group 1) at Newmarket, where she stayed on in the manner of a filly now needing a longer trip. Proven (winning) form at Group 1 level. Scope for further improvement. Trainer/jockey (Will Buick) in form and should have no trouble with the going or distance. She rates a very solid bet at 5/2.

5.15 King’s Shield ran 6/11 in the French 2,000 Guineas last time out but drops to Listed class here. He should be too good for these and rates a bet at 11/8 with Paddy’s.

 

There will be three of interest at Donny tomorrow. More after the prices have gone up on them around teatime today.

 

A little poke on I Can Fly for me in the big race. I like to follow Aidan's outsiders in this, after watching with horror as various 33s and 40s pokes have beaten the more fancied runners.

Wild Illusion is the form horse and is probably priced correctly but I'll chuck my fiver each way on I Can Fly.

 

think mark johnson will win first 2 races
maries diamond
masham star

 

I Can Fly has a task on to turn around the 1,000 Guineas form, but after Wings Of Eagles' Derby win last year you'd be brave to say it was impossible! ☺

 

Review

2.00 True Belief LAST of 7 Patently didn’t handle the track.

3.45 Ajman King WON 5/4 Overcame trouble in the closing stages and was value for more than the 3 length victory.

4.30 Wild Illusion/Ejtyah 2nd/LAST of 9 Wild Illusion ran very well and just ran into a bigger improver. Winner won on merit.

5.15 King’s Shield 4TH Ran poorly. Clearly flattered by his French 2,000 Guineas run.


Epsom Saturday

4.30 Investec Derby

Saxon Warrior is well clear on all known form and is 2/2 against Roaring Lion. He looks certain to relish the 12 furlong trip, and has won on yielding, soft, good to soft and good. This is hoped to be the second leg of the Triple Crown, not won since Nijinsky nearly fifty years ago, and all being well will precede what should be an easy task in the St Leger at Doncaster on 15th September. If you can get any of the remaining Evens or better, my advice is take it!

Doncaster Saturday

Three selections which are speculative, but of very strong interest to me.

1.55 SAN DONATO NON-RUNNER

Watch out for this one wherever he runs next.

2.30 EAGLE HUNTER

Artistic Rifles, Bubbelah, Corvid and Dubai Legacy all look very strong contenders making their debuts for some top stables. All of them are likely-looking winners of this. But I am keen on EAGLE HUNTER, who Hugo Palmer describes as ‘a standout’ among his two year old string. 9/1 with Bet365

4.15 MOOTASADIR

A three year old handicap next, but one of Hugo Palmer’s again. There are three other previous winners here, and MOOTASADIR has won only on the all weather so far. But those were only warm-up races with an eye to his three-year-old career. Hugo describes him as a “wow” horse, and alone of these, he has an entry at Royal Ascot in the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes (25/1 in advance of this race). I would imagine that connections will be very disappointed if he doesn’t comfortably take this race. 2/1 with Bet365

This will be my last post on here for a while, so I’ll leave it to others to assess how these selections did! Good Luck to all.

 

Where you off to Orse?Have I missed summer?