Free Trade Post Brexit?

You seem to be a lot more optimistic than this article from Der Spiegel would suggest the oldest credit insurer in the world is.

Less exports, more corporate bankruptcies: German companies would suffer from Britain's exit from the EU. This is the conclusion of an investigation by the credit insurer Euler Hermes. "The German exporters would be by far the biggest losers in Brexit," said the boss of Euler Hermes in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, Ron van Het Hof. Chinese and Dutch exporters would lose around 3.2 billion euros in exports by 2019, at worst, each. "With the Germans, however, it would be more than twice as many."

The local auto industry alone would take two billion euros less, the mechanical engineers and the chemical industry each around one billion. That would have serious consequences. "In this case, we expect Brexitalone to increase insolvencies in Germany by an additional 1.2 percentage points," said van het Hof.

 

[QUOTE="Scoff, post: 2114071,

The Spanish/Greek/Portuguese tourist industry will suffer a loss of British tourists, but could quite easily make a nice wedge from visas. The Brits will still go to Spain (if they can afford it) they will just have to pay extra for the privilege. [/QUOTE]

Doesn't sound as easy as flogging a few visa's according to the Spanish Govt. Report published in Spain's second largest newspaper EL Pais in 2017.


Madrid warns of “negative consequences” of Brexit on Spain
Government report predicts heavy cost to economy and risks to tourist industry, as well as migration

It’s going to be a so-called hard Brexit: for the European Union, for the United Kingdom, and for Spain. That is the finding of an internal report produced by the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy for the Brexit commission headed by Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría – a document which warns of the impact on Spain of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
The Spanish economy will “suffer the negative consequences” of the departure of one of the country’s leading trading partners from the bloc.
Spain and the EU will suffer negative economic consequences from Brexit, the report says
Spain is exposed: the impact of Brexit will shave between two and four tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth (equivalent to between €2 billion and €4 billion), says the report, citing the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.
The effects of Brexit will also be felt in key sectors such as agriculture, fishing, the automotive industry, and tourism, with a fall in exports of around €500 million, and up to €1 billion in the worst case scenario. The government report also expresses concern about the effect of Brexit on Spain’s leading companies: Banco Santander (some 12% of its revenue comes from the United Kingdom), Telefónica (30%) and electricity utility Iberdrola (12%), which between them make up a third of the value of the Ibex 35 index of leading Spanish companies.The report, produced by the Permanent Representation of Spain to the EU and with contributions from the Spanish embassy in London and a range of ministries, does not lay out Spain’s political position, but overall, the report makes it clear that Madrid wants a soft Brexit, rather than an outcome that punishes London.

 

I expect the inbred idiots in my locale will get their wish and we get to finally kick out all those hard working Foreign types, so that the fat lazy b*****ds on Lupset with their 75 inch TVs in their 5 foot square living rooms will magically find a back bone and go and do a hard days work. You never know. They might be workshy lazy gets, but their English sithi.

 

Facts
1. Britain is a net contributor to the EU.
2. Yorkshire is a negative contributor due to the investment from the various investment vehicles of the EU for poor regions.

Question:
When we get all this money back and the EU stops it’s investment in Yorkshire, do you think the government will;
A) continue to give Yorkshire that money
B) use it to spend money in the south on even better trains and tubes and roads down there.
C) use it to pay for tax cuts for their rich mates.
Curious minds want to know.

 

Not quite sure what that has to to do with the post I made...I didn't suggest anything other than post a report from a German newspaper....explaining the difficulties as seen from an EU position.

 

I'm not sure why you are suggesting I'm buying into anyone's argument Jimmy.... read the article ...that is not me suggesting that...that is what senior Europeans are saying.

 

I don't think it will have any effect on the Free Trade
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Resta...ewcastle_upon_Tyne_Tyne_and_Wear_England.html

top pub with a great view down the Tyne

 

It’s British exceptionalism. Of course there will be a cost to the EU when we leave. They can look to offset that cost. For us we will have no one to help us offset that cost who doesn’t screw us with a far worse deal. May refuses to say the NHS is off the table for a trade deal with the US. The Govt yesterday said that they expect 25 percent of farms to go bust and won’t do anything to stop them. We have caved at all points in the negotiations not just because Davis is inept but because we hold no cards.

As I said bring it on as soon as possible for me. Enough talking get on with it.

 

The Lords defeated the Euratom proposal last month JC - I personally don't think it will go through as MPs are likely to try and overturn the changes to the Nuclear Safeguards Bill when it returns to the Commons - the Government haS said it wants to establish a new domestic nuclear regime as well as negotiate a nuclear agreement with the EU once the UK leaves on 29 March 2019

 

May is determined that we leave Euratom her position is clear. Be interesting if we do given that things like radiotherapy rely on it. Cancer treatment will suffer. I was talking with Robert Winston about it at a ‘do’ a few weeks ago the scientific/medical community are very worried. Not just in a ‘ we aren’t keen on Brexit way but in a people will die way’.

 

Again I have to say why are you suggesting I am making the British exceptionalism argument ?
I responded to a post by Scoff where he asserts that the German car industry has nothing to fear...in fact he is so certain that he says the British buying shortfall will be more than made up by sales elsewhere....I have only posted an article from a German newspaper (not the Express or Mail) that clearly states Germany's oldest business credit insurer has come to a completely opposite conclusion.

 

The idea of a soft Brexit unless we carry on with the 4 freedoms and remain in the CU and SM is exceptionalist thinking.

 

Can I say,This has been one of the most interesting threads to have been on BBS this year. There has been a lot of insightful observation and reference to reports and facts. It has been more insightful than what we here from the UK Politicians and Media. Hopefully it can continue,I like the observations from members who live and work in the EU,as they give a different view of what is happening. Something I don't here in the UK.

 

2017 was a record breaking year for German car sales worldwide. China is over half of all VW sales worldwide, and a third for Audi, BMW, Mercedes and Porsche. These brands are increasing car sales in China by between 1.1% (Audi) and 25.9% (Mercedes) year on year. EU car sales are also increasing.

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/china/2017-full-year-china-worldwide-german-luxury-car-sales/

UK car sales down 6% year on year and continuing to fall.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...-car-sales-fall-continues-2018-diesel-26.html

If these trends continue then VW (5.9% increase in China) x 50% of all sales = +3% this year. The UK would need to be every other VW car sale in the world for new VW sales not to increase this year. The UK is a significant number, but not much more than about 10% of global sales. In reality, they will be hit by <1% drop in new car sales over the next year from the UK, while increasing sales worldwide by >3%.

 

I think it's a good thread too, well reasoned, detailed and based on more economic aspects which at the end of the day is what we'll feel going forward.

I wish debate could be conducted as such in the wider sphere and allow a shifting of minds or discussion of issues. Sadly "debate" in a political world now is how to coat something to try and paint a particular view, rather than just talk aloud, get many opinions and make the best decision, irrespective of who comes up with it.

The thing that concerns we most is the political landscape and how that can hinder simple decision making. In the length of time since article 50 was triggered (a stupid act given so little groundwork had been done) and we've achieved very little. The most basic simple things have been agreed or left hanging (Irish border), and we've nothing close to an economic proposal going forward and just months to try and get something sorted.

The general public seem to think they've voted for a very simple thing, like a weekly x factor phone in. Such a pity the tory infighting didn't highlight what this may actually mean for people.

 

I agree - this has been a good debate. I have to say that I tend to Mark S's view that 'soft' brexit is so overwhelmingly in everyone's interests that surely even our current crop of below-average politicians won't **** it up? May was a very fervent remainer, but has talked as though she is an ardent hard to medium-boiled brexiteer since she assumed office. But her actions tell a different story. The noises to me seem all of compromise and protection of trade links with the EU. I feel that a 'hard' brexit is therefore off the table, realistically. But that is subject to the ability of others to rock the boat as the withdrawal bill continues on it's stately progress through Parliament.

But my original question was around whether say, China would be happy to see us make a free trade deal with the US if they were embarked on a trade war with Trump? Equally, if Trump takes against the EU (and he seems to have a thing about German car makers) then would the EU be so generous towards the UK? If we were to become a conduit in trade links, then that would undermine other nation's protectionism, wouldn't it? So will we have to choose our trading partners carefully? And that leads back to the respective GDP figures, acknowledging that other nations will rapidly grow their GDP's in future years.

I do share the view that we will gravitate towards rejoining - especially if the EU can reform itself and become less prescriptive in the meantime.

 

Oh... and on the issue of German cars..... I'm sure many of the Chelsea tractor brigade will gladly pay the extra 10-20% price, a badge of honour to ironically show brexit hasn't affected them. Many german cars are marquee brands, they will still sell cars, and its not like we have multiple british cars we can substitute in. Imagine the uproar from the public if they were told they couldn't buy a german car anymore.

 

Doesn't sound as easy as flogging a few visa's according to the Spanish Govt. Report published in Spain's second largest newspaper EL Pais in 2017.


Madrid warns of “negative consequences” of Brexit on Spain
Government report predicts heavy cost to economy and risks to tourist industry, as well as migration

It’s going to be a so-called hard Brexit: for the European Union, for the United Kingdom, and for Spain. That is the finding of an internal report produced by the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy for the Brexit commission headed by Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría – a document which warns of the impact on Spain of Britain’s withdrawal from the EU.
The Spanish economy will “suffer the negative consequences” of the departure of one of the country’s leading trading partners from the bloc.
Spain and the EU will suffer negative economic consequences from Brexit, the report says
Spain is exposed: the impact of Brexit will shave between two and four tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth (equivalent to between €2 billion and €4 billion), says the report, citing the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission.
The effects of Brexit will also be felt in key sectors such as agriculture, fishing, the automotive industry, and tourism, with a fall in exports of around €500 million, and up to €1 billion in the worst case scenario. The government report also expresses concern about the effect of Brexit on Spain’s leading companies: Banco Santander (some 12% of its revenue comes from the United Kingdom), Telefónica (30%) and electricity utility Iberdrola (12%), which between them make up a third of the value of the Ibex 35 index of leading Spanish companies.The report, produced by the Permanent Representation of Spain to the EU and with contributions from the Spanish embassy in London and a range of ministries, does not lay out Spain’s political position, but overall, the report makes it clear that Madrid wants a soft Brexit, rather than an outcome that punishes London.[/QUOTE]

The big issue with “soft Brexit” is that it will be seen by Farage and his ilk as not what “the British People voted for” and therefore I’ll have to put up with the waste o snap getting an inordinate amount of media coverage still

 

Well that's another interesting area, with various people claiming the right to assert different versions as being "what the people voted for". I have come to this conclusion. Other than the basic question of whether to leave or not, nothing else was specified on the ballot paper. I believe therefore that the type of brexit to be delivered was left solely in the hands of the government entrusted to deliver it, within the constraints of the parliamentary arithmetic. Of course that arithmetic has subsequently been adjusted by the electorate, so brexit will mean whatever Theresa May's government is able to get through parliament, including any watering down or amendment which passes during the legislative process. Any claim that it means anything over and above that is charlatanism, in my opinion.