Free Trade Post Brexit?

I appreciate the work you've done to come to your position, but I would have thought all that would have been factored into the German calculation, one that reaches a vastly different conclusion .

 

I agree there will be people of the type you mention, I would doubt though there will be enough for any of us to seriously try and debunk that report.

 

UK car registrations plunge in March http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43643741

 

“Charlatanism” Something that plum farage has made a career on sadly.

 

A soft Brexit would have to accept Continuing membership of the CU and SM and an acceptance of the 4 freedoms and the overaching authority of the ECJ. I know the Negotiations have led to us capitulating on pretty much everything so far but I don’t think May could sell that to her party.

 

This word cloud sums up what the people voted for..

Hiding behind some disingenuous nonsense bullshittery that "it didn't say it on the ballot paper" is frankly the main reason politicians got us in the situation we're in now.

 

I agree DWL, the Referundum was more about David Cameron and trying to manage a minority of Conservative Mps and sections of the Media. As such there was no planning done as he (and me) expected to win. What peope voted for was to leave,the reasons why are manifold. What has irritated me and many others,especially those in Business and the Civil Service, is a failure to start making plans and to explain what is happening. Instead we have the inert old arguments over who won. I'm 57 and have 3 grown up children,my concerns are around what the UK will.be like in 5 or 10 years. Is another recession coming,where will people find work and how will we fund Public Services? I accept that some British people have a problem with immigration (I don't), but if a lot of them have to leave, who will fill in the gaps? There is a record of the UK Government not funding or investing in Manufacturing or the region's since the 1990s and this has got progressively worse over the last 10 years. We are reliant on the Government to sort these problems out for us as a country. So far they have been poor, my belief from what I have heard is the EU Officials have been helpful in negotiations. But, are hindered by the political gymnastics the PM has to do to please the extreme views in her own party. She has never been a person or politician who will make a decision and stand by it, constantly putting off making one. This is why we are so far behind and still we don't know what next year will be like. Other than we will be in a Transition agreement,until another General election and then it will be someone else's problem. That doesn't help ordinary people,let alone Businesses or other Governments. Whichever party you support (I don't support any), our politicians have failed us badly.

 

Not necessarily...as Mairead McGuinness Irelands EU vice president said on Question time a free trade deal is the solution.

Below is the position from the European Motor Manufacturers Association.

At ACEA we are hopeful that there will be an orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU, one which will contain an agreement on a transition period to give negotiators the time to agree an ambitious deal for the future EU-UK relationship. Besides addressing the automotive-specific issues that I mentioned before, it should above all be based on the key principles of international trade; allowing for free and fair trade that is as frictionless as possible.

Erik Jonnaert
Secretary General of ACEA

 

Of course there are varying aspects, pros and cons for each side. The germans could look at car sales and what it means to the potential tax take of their economy and their export output data and impact of employment should there be a fall. The world is growing fast and the nominal amount of cars we have compared to the world is an obvious point.

I think the final outcome will mean german cars are sold on british streets pretty much as they are now. Not so much because Germany would go under if they didn't, but because of the outrage on british streets if people couldn't have what they wanted. The low end of the market will buy on affordability, Mercedes, BMW, Audi and VW aren't at that part of the foodchain though.

The other aspect to consider, recent reports have highlighted how the shift has been towards PCP and the perceived indebtedness that generates without having an asset. What impact that will have on our economy come a further fall in the pound, high inflation and the dreaded rise in interest rates the BoE seem to be warning us of.... could be very dangerous. That could affect car manufacturers too of course.

As I said, its swings and roundabouts. Some gain, some benefit... all in all, I think we have more to lose than to gain.

Especially at a time of growing protectionism, the stance against Russia, the stance of the US. I cant think of a worse global time to be leaving a larger united institution. But then people weren't aware of that either when they marked an x.

 

One other thing to flag.... we've only had a lead counsel in place for a few months. I know the headhunter charged with finding them and they weren't commissioned til several months AFTER Article 50 was triggered. The salary was way below par for the role, and they struggled to find a candidate at the level of experience they wanted. I haven't spoken with them in a while so I don't know who they finally put forward, but I do know they dropped from 5years PQE to 2, to allow the salary to be palatable. To put this into context, the internal legal negotiator for the UK may only have 2 years legal expertise post qualification. Let that sink in for a while.

 

I'm sick to the back teeth of the continued desperation for growth of the worlds economies. What ever happened to being content with your lot and making the most of what we have without this greed? Especially in this country where the standard of living is fantastic, there is no underlying need for any single person to be living in poverty here, it's purely just how the country is structured politically and peoples attitudes towards one another.

We are an island, we could easily by all working together be self sufficient from green energy sources with very limited reliance on fossil fuels in the long term. We have the climate to grow our own food making maximum use of our depleted farming and fisheries industries.

Call me a little Englander but my idea of a successful Brexit would be moving back towards being far more self sufficient then we are now. It is a joke that any other country could be even considered when it comes to our national infrastructure projects like power stations etc. This is why the country has gone to pot already.. A nation of outsourcers, doing nothing for ourselves. Losing all the practical skills developed over generations just for the sake of getting something cheaper. Sod growth, why can't we live somewhere that people are happy to call home, where we look after one another, where other nations look at us in admiration for our creativity and living within our means, and for how happy people are to call the UK home.

I know this is all pie in the sky because of the political greed within the world now. A world where we spend billions on nuclear weapons we will never use.. I think we should have scrapped em, who honestly cares about firing nukes at another country should we ever be on the receiving end? This world wouldn't be worth living in should that ever happen, especially on a tiny Island like ours.

Like I say, it's probably far too late to stop the country continually going to ****. Just look at the state of most of our towns and cities, the state of our railways and roads.. If there is even a glimmer of hope, it isn't to stay in the EU and the financial race to the top. It's to pull the plug on this race and base the wealth of the country on our quality of life, on how happy we are, on wiping out poverty, yes at the expense of some of our 'money' rich society values but we could easily do it.

So what if Brexit means a fall in our GDP and growth slips... It's how that GDP is managed and distributed that counts..

 

That’s the British exceptionalism. Even if the EU wanted to give us a free trade deal that allowed us access to the SM and CU the statutes would prevent this. Look at Norway. They accept the 4 freedoms not because they want to but because they could not get a deal without it. We will either have a trade deal that leaves us as part of the SM and CU or a hard Brexit where we may negotiate some access to it in the way that Canada or the US have varying degrees of accesss.

 

Jimmy forgive me for mentioning it again but you keep going on about British exceptionalism...the words I quote are from an Irish EU vice president...not Farage or Mogg.

 

I'm not sure a return to self sufficiency is anywhere close. I don't disagree about greener and more local ways of doing things, and agree GDP and greed are all too prevalent. Sadly, the thing I perceive brexit to deliver, is greater reliance or further flung countries that we can leverage to get things cheaper. Possibly at the expense of quality or regulation (as already mentioned in terms of pharma and food standards).

so much of our society crave this sugar kicked throw away state of affairs now. It's exceptionally sad when we so have so much we're capable to do ourselves... if only we had a nation of true industry that wasn't borrowed from Lithuania or Poland (I love the Baltic states, fantastic people), or funded and owned by China or Korea.

The two can co-exist, EU membership and more localisation and upskilling of residing citizens, while reaching to other continents and welcoming industry, so many EU countries are self sufficient and cater for themselves, so this isn't an EU manifested problem. The difference in how many Europeans shop, eat and live is far different to here. We're much similar to the US in lifestyle and consumerism.

 

The EU negotiating team have been pretty crystal clear on the subject. Junker has outlined the 3 options Norway plus. Canada plus or exit on WTO rules. Regardless of members individual feelings they are the only options.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...nier-maps-out-uks-canadian-path-idUKKBN1ED23R

 

I don't think SM membership would pass muster (even though I'd like it to). I do think May will negotiate a "customs arrangement" that will be a customs union in all but name but will be desperate for it not to be described as such. If that is accompanied by some arrangement that still permits EU nationals to enter the country and fill vacancies where we would be critically short, then I'd still describe that as a "soft" brexit. But it's certainly not a scientific term, is it?

 

This pretty much explains the options and which red lines the govt would have to concede.

 

Mine is a very idealistic idea of how we should be living. I'm in no doubt that it will never happen..

But simply because of the way the EU operates just one example on farming.. We end up with farmers receiving payments not to farm over certain quotas etc under EU regs. Already dead fish thrown back into the sea if we happen to catch too many.. Just two areas we could realistically control again outside the EU. We should try to maintain this ethos as our number one priority, be self sufficient and keep improving how we do things. Not just looking for the cheap foreign option. We can still trade with countries of course for items where we cannot produce in this country.. But come one, we import basic vegetables and meat produce where we could be entirely self sufficient (after a time). It wouldn't be possible straight away, because we have downscaled so much..

Don't want to be upsetting the veggies on here but I'd much rather eat meat produce from more local sources that wait for it to be packed in ice and shipped from Europe or New Zealand. Same with vegetables.

I'd much rather take a financial hit to start to build up our self sufficiency again. Same with some of our manufacturing industries. As long as the initial financial burden is placed on those that can, all these things will help bring others out of poverty, some purely because of an increase in the skilled trades again.

 

You put it very well MDG, but I think it is not just idealistic, but unrealistic. I don't think any politician with realistic designs on holding office would be prepared to forego the increased prosperity (such as it is - and no matter how it is shared) that comes with trade, particularly free trade. For one thing, it would frustrate many other policy aims whatever the colour of the government by reducing the public finances.

 

I’m going to call you something you might not like.....


A COMMUNIST