Historical points totals of 2nd and 3rd placed teams

17/18 96 87
16/17 86 82
15/16 85 84 Barnsley 74 (6th)*
14/15 91 89 Barnsley 62 (11th)
13/14 94 86
12/13 83 79
11/12 93 90
10/11 92 87
09/10 86 85
08/09 89 87
07/08 82 80
06/07 85 83
05/06 79 76 Barnsley 72 (5th)*
04/05 86 79 Barnsley 61 (13th)
03/04 83 82 Barnsley 62 (12th)
02/03 86 83 Barnsley 52 (19th)

Average points total for 2nd and 3rd over the last 16 seasons is 87 and 84 respectively. We’re on 85 already and could finish on 94 if we win our last 3.

But in this season even 94 points might not be enough to clinch 2nd (or even 3rd). If we finished 3rd it would be the highest points total of any 3rd places team over the last 16 seasons (and by a margin of at least 4), and 10 points higher than the average.

94 points would also have been enough to finish 2nd in every season except last season (where Blackburn got 96).

Regardless of where we finish it’s going to have been a great season and a couple of teams are going to be very unlucky not to go up. Hopefully it’s not us.

Interestingly, the gap in quality of the top teams and the rest of the league appears to be getting bigger and bigger. Not including this season, average points for 2nd and 3rd over the last 8 years was 90 and 86 respectively, but only 84 and 82 for the 8 before that. Perhaps a sign that the impact of premier league parachute money really does filter all the way down into league 1?

 

Stating the obvious..
Looking at the remaining games IF (yep! its a big if) we win all our games and are on 94 points if Sunderland and Pompey draw then even if they both win all the other 3 we still finish above them. If either team beats the other that team would still need to win all their other three matches to go above us.

Even if we win 2 draw 1 and end on 92 if either P or S lose just one of their 4 games we still stay above them, on goal difference (assuming Sunderland dont win one or more by a large scoreline) we still stay 2nd. Pompey would have to give someone a right drubbing to make up the difference.

Overall that means the odds are slightly more in our favour than either Pompey or Sunderland even though it is not totally within our control.

Provided we win 2 out of 3 we cannot finish lower than 3rd and are guaranteed a play off so should we lose a game or two, whilst disappointed, hopefully, we can avoid a BB full of doom and gloom posts from the usual suspects. For me it has been an enjoyable season with some great entertaining football, plus the bonus of the acquisition of a great enthusiastic young manager . Always a roller coaster ride with BFC but noticeably fewer down than ups than we normally get for a typical BFC season so we are ending much higher than we started out whatever happens between now and the end of the season..

 

What we want in terms of the Sunderland v Pompey result will depend entirely on whether we think we’ll drop points.

If we think we’ll win our remaining 3 then we want a draw, as we’ll definitely finish 2nd by 1 point.

If we think we’ll draw a game then we need both Sunderland and Pompey to lose a game and for there to be no large swings in GD. The game they’re both most likely to lose is against each other, so we want one of them to lose that game, and the other to lose one of their remaining games.

If we draw a game and they draw against each other, we’d be relying on them both dropping points in another game, which is perhaps unlikely.

So a draw is probably the worst result for us, if we think we’re going to drop points.

 

I think I need to sit down.

 

Three wins would be some effort. As we were going into the last six games, I think most people highlighted Burton and Plymouth away as most likely games to drop points, so Monday is massive. But even if we win only 2 out of 3 and finish 3rd, 91 points would be some season.