Little reason for optimism re Saturday

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by orsenkaht, Dec 6, 2017.

  1. ors

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Last five games:

    Reds: W 0 D 1 L 4 Pts 1 Goals for 2 Against 10
    Rams: W 3 D 1 L 1 Pts 10 Goals for 7 Against 2

    Derby 6/5 (=45%) in a few places. I'd say their chances of winning are nearer 66%.
     
  2. John Peachy

    John Peachy Well-Known Member

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    Usually the game we turn it around.

    Let's hope so.
     
  3. Kettlewell

    Kettlewell Active Member

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    Historically Barnsley FC always lose to the bottom team and then beat a top team next game. It wouldn't surprise me if that happened on Saturday, though I'm not expecting anything.
     
  4. Poet

    Poet Active Member

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    I might be being really thick here, but how is that good value? If they are to win this fixture 45% of the time, and you believe they are more likely to win 66% of the time, how is betting on Derby a good bet? Again, apologies if I'm missing something, but I don't get it.
     
  5. tyk

    tyketastic Well-Known Member

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    Also we are 20th in the home league table and Derby are 4th in the away table. Unbeaten in their last 6 away games, having won 3 of the past and scoring 8 goals in those last 4 away games.
    Still sometimes all counts for nothing and I'll be going down full of hope as usual.
     
  6. Jam

    Jamo Well-Known Member

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    Under Hecky we've struggled against the higher up teams so Saturday would be a good time to revisit tradition.
     
  7. ors

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Well because if I were right in my estimate of Derby's chances as being 66% then the odds ought to be 1/2. Instead the bookies are offering you 6/5. So you are actually being offered the equivalent of 1.2 to 1 as opposed to 0.5 to1. Or more than double the return that represents my estimate of the chances of it happening.

    That said, I'm often wrong about my estimates of our chances, and my maths is even worse!
     
  8. Til

    Tilertoes Well-Known Member

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    We'll win 3 1 and that is 100% guaranteed.
     
  9. Con

    Conan Troutman Well-Known Member

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    So you'll be refunding all losing bets then?
     
  10. Til

    Tilertoes Well-Known Member

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    Yes pal. Do you take drachma?
     
  11. Con

    Conan Troutman Well-Known Member

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  12. Til

    Tilertoes Well-Known Member

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    Spot of bad luck your having then
     
    Mapplewell Red and New Tyke like this.
  13. NorthernDreamer

    NorthernDreamer Member

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    It's time for the law of averages to kick in. (Although I do realise that sod's law is waiting in the wings). I reckon we'll win this one.
     
  14. Spuggy

    Spuggy Active Member

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    Am I right in thinking that Derby have a poor record at Oakwell?
     
  15. ors

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    BetVictor will give you 30/1 about that one. That represents slightly over 1%!
     
  16. Poet

    Poet Active Member

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    Thanks for the clarification mate.

    I think there is quite a bit of value about in the Europe League tonight, what are your thoughts? Here are a few that jump out:

    Apollon Limassol @ Evens (v Everton) - still not entirely convinced with this Everton 'turnaround' and they look to have taken a pretty weakened squad to Cyprus with them.

    Sheriff Tiraspol @ 5/1 (v Copenhagen) - Tricky one this, as is always the case when comparing two pretty mediocre leagues. Sheriff have been on a very good run, and their away form is impeccable.

    Red Star Belgrade @ 19/20 (v Koln) - Red Star don't lose many at home (Arsenal are the only team to win there in like, forever) and Koln have had a season to forget so far.
     
  17. ors

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Take your point about Everton. I understand Big Sam himself hasn't travelled - he's sent Big Dunc and Craig Shakespeare to oversee things. Man City lost in similar circumstances last night with Pep fielding squad players. That said, I don't know much about Limassol!
     

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