O/T: Cheltenham Thoughts

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by orsenkaht, Mar 12, 2018.

  1. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Tuesday of Cheltenham Week is the real New Year’s Day for us horsey fans!

    As ever, rain is the bugbear, and has the potential to alter calculations. At the moment the going is described as soft (heavy in places). Rain is forecast today, but fine weather for tomorrow and Wednesday. There is heavy rain forecast for Thursday, with showers and breezy conditions for Friday. Thursday could turn out particularly tricky if the rain does arrive. Selections ideally need to have shown form on softer ground. My thoughts, for what they are worth, are as follows.

    Tuesday

    Getabird (winning form on heavy ground) has the best form in the Supreme Novices Hurdle which opens the meeting. His price is currently too short but there may well be 9/4 or 5/2 available tomorrow morning, which would be a bet. Footpad (wins on soft/heavy) is my pick in the Arkle, as I expect him to be able to track the likely strong pace set by Saint Calvados and pounce in the home straight. More speculative is Gold Present in the Ultima Handicap Chase (7/1 at the moment). He has won on good to soft – so slight question mark there, but he’s an up and coming chaser who may progress to better class chases in open company eventually. I like this horse (along with Bellshill) for the Grand National, so his 20/1 price for Aintree may shorten if he wins or runs well here.

    Buveur D’Air (wins on soft and heavy) will win the Champion Hurdle – simple as. But 4/7 is no use to anyone. Ditto Apple’s Jade in the Mares’ Hurdle – she’s 8/13 best at present. Jury Duty (wins on soft/heavy) should go well in the National Hunt Chase at 9/2 or 5/1. He has one of the best of the amateurs aboard in Jamie Codd. The last race (Close Brothers handicap Chase) is really too competitive to get involved in, although Rather Be and Mister Whittaker may go well.

    Wednesday

    Samcro and Altior should win their respective races but are too short in the betting to merit backing. Of more interest are Presenting Percy (RSA Chase) and Cause Of Causes (Cross Country Chase). The latter would not want it too soft. Acey Milan is very interesting in the concluding Champion Bumper. He receives weight, being a four year old and has won on soft and heavy – last time out at Newbury by 11 lengths. 8/1 is very interesting for this one. The Coral Cup and the Fred Winter Hurdle are just too competitive to wrestle with. Watching races!

    Thursday

    Here’s where we have to take it cautiously! Un DeSceaux will relish heavy conditionsin the Ryanair Chase, but it seems stablemate Douvan may turn up here (winner on heavy) and he is basically a better horse. 11/4 non runner no bet is one of my bets of the meeting, but get on this morning before the Champion Chase declarations are made (if Douvan is absent it will more or less confirm that he is running in Thursday’s Ryanair). We get our money back if he doesn’t run. Sam Spinner has winning form on heavy and has done nothing but improve this season. 9/2 is a very fair price and he would be shorter if he was at a more fashionable stable. Laurina should win the Mares’ Novice Hurdle but is too short to support. The other races are too complex to work out.

    Friday

    In the Gold Cup, Might Bite is much the best horse. He might prefer better ground, but he won the King George on soft and his sire Scorpion won the St Leger on heavy so I’m prepared to take a chance here. 3/1 (NRNB) is about the best price at the moment, but he might just drift before the off due to the conditions. Pacher Du Polder and On The Fringe are both of interest in the Foxhunters’ but the remaining races are difficult to assess with any certainty this far ahead.

    Best of luck to those getting involved, and especially to those who are going on one or more days – thorough stayers required!
     
  2. churtonred

    churtonred Well-Known Member

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    I've followed your advice once with success mate and regretted not following it on numerous occasions, but I don't draw anything from the above that is encouraging me to bring that fiver in the corner of my wallet out of hibernation.
    :)
     
  3. DEE

    DEETEE Well-Known Member

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    Getabird.

    Is that a runner or a dig at some of the posters on here?
     
  4. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Caution is never a bad thing, Churts! It's the most competitive jumps meeting of the year, with English and Irish form lines to assess and try to tie in. Add to that the prospect of an uncertain amount of rain and you have some major variables there. Set against that, the horses and form are the best on offer, which usually increases the reliability factor. As ever, all we are looking for is a strike rate percentage in excess of that suggested by the odds on offer. That way, 33% winners or better is absolutely fine if we can achieve an average return of 2/1 or better on the winners we select. But it does mean any individual bet is twice as likely to lose as to win!

    If that doesn't boggle your brain, the selections above I'm most keen on are: Footpad (Tuesday), Presenting Percy and Cause Of Causes (Wednesday), and Douvan and Sam Spinner (Thursday). I'm hopeful of Might Bite on Friday, but just a bit afraid of the ground for that one.
     
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  5. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    The horse is by Getaway out of a mare called Fern Bird, Deetee! Horse names are a whole topic on their own. One of my favourites was Top Of The Bill (by Star Appeal out of Cash Limit). And Pete Tingay's Astaire (Intense Focus out of Runway Dancer) wasn't bad ("a stare" - geddit?) wasn't bad. Then there was one a few years back called Lowawatha (by Dancing Brave out of Shorthouse). I also liked Jafeica (said by the owner to mean "just another ******* expense I can't afford"!) But the one the authorities would have banned if they had spotted it was Shy Talk!
     
  6. upt

    upthecolliers Well-Known Member

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    Watch out for the Irish Hoss's if the goings heavy.
    My tip is look for a hoss that's won on heavy ground don't always back these fancied favourites there will be some very good odds to back each way and remember when the fun stops, stop.
     
  7. Ripper

    Ripper Active Member

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    I was told last week to back a horse called theclockisticking each way it runs on Wednesday I think. I’ve not backed it as of yet.
     
  8. upt

    upthecolliers Well-Known Member

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    My favorite name of a horse was one called "P1llocks Green" it ran in the 1960's.
     
  9. Ripper

    Ripper Active Member

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    Thinking of opening a online account, any recommendations as to which one I should register with ?.
     
  10. Burgundy Red

    Burgundy Red Well-Known Member

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    I've only just twigged @Shy Talk's username, even with the accompanying picture. Only taken me 10 years.

    Thanks for marking our cards, Mr Kaht. I've had a year off betting but after talking about it for years I finally went to the Gold Cup last year and to mark the anniversary am having a small flutter on the TV races at the festival this week so a bit of friendly analysis is just what was needed. Any winnings will be recycled at the Oakley point-to-point at the weekend. As an aside, this time last year I saw Sam Waley-Cohen ride at the Cheltenham festival on the Friday and then at the local point-to-point 2 days later. That was some contrast.
     
  11. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    As many as you find. They will all offer you free bets and when you haven't used an account for a while, they will email you to offer you a free bet. You can then use Oddschecker to always make sure you're using the company offering you the best odds.

    Read a piece yesterday with someone saying if the six bankers of the festival all win, it will cost the industry a payout in the region of fifty million pounds. I think Ruby Walsh would have cost them tens of millions the other year, had he not fallen off Annie Power at the last.
     
  12. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Douvan has been declared for the Queen Mother Champion Chase on Wednesday, so we'll get a refund for Thursday's Ryanair. I don't fancy backing him against Altior on Wednesday but it will be a cracking race to watch.
     
  13. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    FAVOURITIES I THINK WILL WIN

    Footpad
    Buveir Dair
    Apple's Jade
    Samcro
    Laurina
    Un De Sceaux
    Apple's Shakira

    FAVOURITES I THINK WILL LOSE

    Getabird
    Altior
    Douvan
    Might Bite
    Cause Of Causes

    Now, firstly, get your Wellingtons out. It's going to be the worst ground in twenty years, so lots of horses at the head of the market need a check to see whether they go on heavy. Don't try and get too clever though. Lots of trials throughout the winter have been run on very soft ground too, so look for horses that have won well - particularly at Cheltenham's November and January meetings and Leopardstown over Christmas.

    Secondly, put your bets on between 9-11 in a morning. This is traditionally when bookies enhance prices to attract custom. Shop around. Many will offer extra place terms or best odds. Coral are offering money back on the Supreme as a free bet up to 25 quid. Paddy Power are offering money back if the favourite wins on the first day. William Hill are paying double the odds on the Supreme (I think). Coral are offering faller insurance. After taking all that in, if you're going to back Getabird use William Hill - you'll get double the odds. If you fancy an outsider in the Supreme, use Coral. If you fancy something against any shortie then use Paddy Power. AND MAKE SURE YOU TAKE THE PRICE. Many bookies will shorten the odds just before race time.

    As for day one? I don't like Getabird, but don't know what will go on the ground as I've not looked properly. Kalashnikov won on soft but might not be good enough. I've backed Mengli Khan but think the ground has gone against it. Debuchet might not be the worst bet in the world at likely odds.

    Footpad is a cert. As is Buveur Dair. As is Apple's Jade. That's your day one treble, pays about 4/1.

    The 2.50 has been thrown wide open with the weather. Vintage Clouds is interesting, as is the horse with the French name trained by Venetia Williams but I forget what its called. The best bet in my opinion is Mr Whittaker in the 5.30. Its about 12/1. Won on Cheltenham trials day, acts of soft. Get the wheelbarrow out.

    In the 4.50 look for an old boat that'll stay all day. 4 miles will be a shocker, expect only a handful to finish.

    DAY ONE.

    Mengli Khan with Corals (free bet worst case).
    The Big Treble 4/1.
    Vintage Clouds win.
    French Horse each way.
    Ms Parfois win.
    Mr Whittaker win.

    In case I don't post on here again before the end of the week, remember this for the Gold Cup. DO NOT BACK A HORSE WHO HAS FAILED IN THE RACE BEFORE. Apart from Kauto Star, they just don't win. If anyone backs Djakadam then I advice a white coat. Native River and Minella Rocco were 2nd and 3rd last year. All the stats point to Might Bite, but the ground has surely gone against him, although he is the best horse in the race. I'll take Road To Respect and Definitely Red. 10/1 and 16/1. You won't go badly wrong with those
     
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  14. dreamboy3000

    dreamboy3000 Well-Known Member

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    Ladbrokes offering a 11/2 special on Ruby to win the first two races on the heavily fancied getabird and footpad. Bookies could be skint early doors.
     
  15. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Will be having a look today Orsen.
     
  16. tob

    tobytyke1999 Member

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    like the look of Acey Milan in the bumper.

    Positives.
    Will get a 7lb weight advantage as a 4YO. Could be a huge help esp in heavy going.
    Needs testing ground which it looks like getting. The more testing the better.
    Has Class 1 winning form, he's still improving watching the Newbury race.
    Has Cheltenham winning form, he looked very strong in the finish in that race. Putting a fair amount of increasing distance between himself and the pack.
    Likes to race up with the pace, of which I think is a benefit in this because of the numbers of horses in the race.

    Negitives
    Does this race come too soon after the tough race at Newbury? Trainer reports him thriving and good form at home.



    8/1 a fair price
     
  17. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    A pretty good day yesterday all things being equal. I expect something to come to light regarding Apples Jade because she should have pissed up on all known form. Mr Whittaker battling up the hill was most please.

    It looks tricky today.

    1.30 - I've thought Samcro was bombproof all winter but the horses he's beat that ran in the supreme didn't exactly set the world on fire. Maybe the Irish novices aren't up to much? Black Op and Vision De Flos to small stakes- but I'll probably leave alone.

    2.10 - Monalee.

    2.50 - A proper pin job this. The hardest race of the week. Haven't backed a winner in the Coral Cup since Adam was a lad. It's interesting that Royal Vacation runs here in preference to yesterday and he'll go on the ground. Fix Le Kap ran a shocker last time out but again the ground will help. Henderson has won this before with a failed chased in Spirit River also.

    3.30 - Against Altior and Douvan. Altior had an injury scare on Monday and Douvan hasn't run in a year. My dad always says that Cheltenham winners are horses who's season has gone exactly right- you don't regain form here or comeback from injury (Faugheen). If you've had a couple of winners already in the day then climb on Min. Wait till the off because I think his price will drift. Politoluge the danger, unless he gets into a fight for the lead with Special Tiara.

    4.10 - No interest. Josies Orders just for a bit of interest.

    4.50 - Back anything Paul Nicholls trains. He's had something like 3 winners and 4 seconds from 15 runners over the last 8 years. Act Of Valour will do for me, but he also runs something at 20s who's name I can't remember with Twiston Davies riding.

    5.30 - God knows. Joseph O'Brien likes his horse, but I can't remember the name. If in doubt, back something that's won on soft and won in a field of at least 12. Usually that gives you the winner
     
  18. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Tuesday
    Getabird UPL
    Footpad WON 5/6
    Gold Present UPL
    Buveur D’Air WON 4/6
    Apple’s Jade 3RD
    Jury Duty UPL
    Rather Be/Mister Whittaker 2ND 12/1 / WON 13/2

    I think Samcro is bombproof today (4/5 with Skynobet). As set out on Monday, I'm very keen on the chances of Presenting Percy (2.10), Cause Of Causes (4.10) and Acey Milan (5.30).

    I still have Altior as the likeliest winner of the Champion Chase (3.30). However, this week we have had the foot abscess scare (reported to be OK now) and also the going may be less than ideal for him. Douvan would have had a much simpler task in the Ryanair tomorrow, but runs here. And Ruby prefers him to Min. I'm therefore compelled to have a few quid on him at 7/2 because he was regarded as a future superstar prior to being injured in this last year. Given the slight doubts about Altior (who remains the likeliest winner) I think Douvan is now the value here.

    Honourable mention to Fonzie here for putting up Mr Whittaker (also mentioned in my Monday preview). I understand that trainer Mick Channon did the 'windmill' celebration in the winners' enclosure! Joseph's horse in the bumper is Rhinestone, whose form ties in closely with Blackbow last time out. Acey Milan has achieved a lot however, and I don't he runs too soon here (32 days off).
     
  19. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    4.50 Eragon De Chanay is top on Timeform and Racing Post Ratings. He won by 11 lengths on soft at Sandown (uphill finish) on Saturday and gets in here under just a 5 lb penalty. I take him and Lisp.
     
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  20. Burgundy Red

    Burgundy Red Well-Known Member

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    My unscientific selections for the TV races today, posted here chiefly as a warning to others:
    1:30 Samcro
    2:10 Monalee
    2:50 William Henry
    3:30 Altior
    4:10 The Last Samurai​
     

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