O/T: Cheltenham Thoughts

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by orsenkaht, Mar 12, 2018.

  1. Spuggy

    Spuggy Well-Known Member

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    My day 2 picks;

    Next destination
    Monalee
    Voix au reve
    Altior
    Cause of Causes
    Nube Negra
    Carefully selected (the horses name, not my opinion of my own selections before anyone says it).
    :p
     
  2. Fon

    Fonzie Well-Known Member

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    Fair shout that. Looks like he relished the mud on Saturday and conditions very similar.
     
  3. Sparky

    Sparky Well-Known Member

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    What a run from Samcro
     
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  4. Bru

    BrunNer Well-Known Member

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    2.50 - Fixe Le Kap
     
  5. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Cheers Orsen Samcro & Altiors double up so far. Put the rest in singles.
     
  6. Spuggy

    Spuggy Well-Known Member

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    Ruby walsh has a suspected broken leg.

    Paddy power have paid out on him being top jockey at the festival as a good will gesture.
     
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  7. tob

    tobytyke1999 Member

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    2.10
    Im pretty sure nicholls has been gettin movewiththetimes ready today...had loads of sighters early season round chelts...think he can get on the board tomorrow 9/1 crackin bet
    5.30
    Final nudge 3rd in welsh national giving 5lb to vintage clouds(4th) who franked the form on Tuesday.will love the ground and top amateur on board. 16/1 a great price
     
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  8. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Wednesday
    Samcro WON 8/11
    Presenting Percy WON 5/2
    Altior WON 1/1
    Cause Of Causes UNPLACED
    Acey Milan UNPLACED
     
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  9. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    You'd imagine Douvan will be taken out of the Ryanair today, but he only completed half a lap in the QMCC yesterday and he remains in the betting. Perhaps they're waiting to see how he is this morning before deciding whether to give him another spin? Must surely be unlikely as Mullins also has the favourite. But Rich Ricci would be without a runner in that one.

    In addition to the ones I mentioned at the start of the week (Sam Spinner, Laurina) I'm liking the chances today of Terrefort (1.30), Glenloe (2.10) and Last Goodbye/The Storyteller (4.10). Look out for heavy ground horses, folks. Have a good one!
     
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  10. Burgundy Red

    Burgundy Red Well-Known Member

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    I'm beginning to remember why I stopped doing this. Still, most of my independent "selections" today also appear on Mr Kaht's shortlist so I'm not without hope.
    1:30 Terrefort
    2:10 Lovenormoney
    2:50 Un de Sceaux
    3:30 Sam Spinner
    4:10 Last Goodbye ​
     
  11. Burgundy Red

    Burgundy Red Well-Known Member

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    Wow, I'm rubbish at this. One more chance tomorrow before I knock it on the head for another year, I think.
     
  12. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Thursday
    Douvan Non Runner
    Sam Spinner Unplaced
    Laurina WON 4/7

    The other ones I mentioned yesterday morning were Terrefort (2nd), Glenloe (2nd) and Last Goodbye/The Storyteller (Won 5/1).

    In addition to Might Bite and Pacher Du Polder/On The Fringe, today I like Apple's Shakira (1.30), Flying Tiger/Smaoineamh Alainn (2.10), Santini/Chef Des Obeaux (2.50), Deal D'Estruval/Melrose Boy (4.50) and Theinval (5.30).

    I'm still very keen on Might Bite in the Gold Cup. He will stay this trip and acts on soft going. At a longer price though, one who seems to have been forgotten in the race is Total Recall. This horse has lots of scope for further improvement and has had a light campaign this season. He won the (what used to be) the Hennessey Gold Cup at Newbury in November and was given an easy task over hurdles at Leopardstown last month. This is only his fourth run for Willie Mullins and further improvement is highly likely. At 22/1 (Paddy Power and others) he is a very live each way chance. Good luck all.
     
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  13. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

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    Review

    Results for the horses I mentioned on Monday, to a notional £10 stake per race (divide by 10 if you like to stake £1 a race, multiply by 10 if you like to stake £100 a race, etc,etc). Stakes split equally where more than one selection per race:

    Tuesday
    Getabird UPL -10
    Footpad WON 5/6 +8.33
    Gold Present UNPLACED -10
    Buveur D’Air WON 4/6 +6.66
    Apple’s Jade 3RD -10
    Jury Duty UNPLACED -10
    Rather Be/Mister Whittaker 2ND 12/1 / WON 13/2 +32.5
    Total +7.49
    Wednesday
    Samcro WON 8/11 +7.27
    Presenting Percy WON 5/2 +25
    Altior WON 1/1 +10
    Cause Of Causes UNPLACED -10
    Acey Milan UNPLACED -10
    Total +22.77
    Thursday
    Douvan NR
    Sam Spinner UNPLACED -10
    Laurina WON 4/7 +5.71
    Total -4.29
    Friday
    Might Bite 2ND -10
    On The Fringe /Pacher Du Polder UNPLACED/WON 25/1 +125
    Total +115

    Races 16 Wins 8 Strike Rate 50%
    Stakes 160 Returns 290.47 Profit 130.47 (ROI 81.5%)

    We probably bade a Cheltenham farewell to Faugheen, Cue Card and The New One - all brilliant old warriors who now seem to be beyond their peak. In their place we saw the rise of Footpad, Samcro and Presenting Percy, who all look future stars. Riding performance of the week for me was Ruby Walsh on Footpad. He ignored the crazy early pace and had the confidence to wait a dozen lengths behind at one point, producing Footpad to sweep by and storm home by 14 lengths. My race of the week was the Gold Cup. An epic duel between Native River and Might Bite, with a very worthy winner, brilliantly ridden by Richard Johnson, and Might Bite equally well ridden by Nico De Boinville, but just undone (as I rather feared in my comments on Monday) by the softer ground. A special and appropriate mention in this of all years to Lizzie Kelly, Katie Walsh, Bridget Andrews and Harriet Tucker for fearless and well-judged rides, showing that female riders can be every bit as good as the males even with far fewer opportunities. A terrific week.
     
  14. Gordon Owen

    Gordon Owen Well-Known Member

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    Brilliant Orsen.
     

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