One for tomorrow

6.45 Sandown DUBHE

2/1 with Bet365. I may be wrong, but I'll be surprised if it goes off as big as that.

Reasons upon request.

 

Heavy going , have had a small bet on it . Good luck

 

Racing Post currently report soft, Connor. The sire (Dubawi) won on good to soft. The dam (Great Heavens) won on soft and heavy as did the maternal grandsire (Galileo). So while these things are never certain until they've run on the ground, I'd be hopeful Dubhe wouldn't be too inconvenienced.

 

She's a star.

 

Not the sort of weather to be lumping on unproven horses at short prices.

Better value backing Ipswich at the same odds.

 

Yes - wouldn't suggest anyone on this forum lumps on Donks. I do however think that 9/4 (31% chance) somewhat understates the chances of this one. His pedigree suggests that the weather/going shouldn't pose too many problems (see above), although it's right to say that until they've actually run on soft ground you can't assume they will act on it. With two year olds there's always an element of conjecture until their racing character becomes firmly established. The corollary to that is that if you are prepared to make educated guesses based on a number of surrounding circumstances, the price you get will tend to be greater than for races where the merits and character of the participants are more widely known. The evidence I put up for Dubhe is that his debut run was promising (4/11 at Newbury on good ground), his pedigree holds out every hope of his not being inconvenienced by soft going, he is top on the Racing Post Ratings, he (alone of this field) holds a Group 1 entry later in the season, and his trainer is running at a 35% strike rate with his two year olds on turf this season. You would have to respect the chances of John Gosden's Cassini. He had a 2yo debutant win at Kempton last night, but his youngsters often come on for their debut, so I would hope that Dubhe might have the edge here with the benefit of experience. And Cassini doesn't have any further fancy entries. John Gosden's other runner is by Scat Daddy, and there would probably have to be a question mark about the ground for him. My guess (and I am often wrong) is that the rest of the runners look a pretty ordinary bunch. So certainty? No. Better than a 9/4 chance? In my book, yes!

I'm not do sure about Ipswich. A good win last week, but they have not invested significantly and look a fairly ordinary side. A Hull/Leeds/Boro accy on the other hand gets you 13/2!

 

Highland Mary in 6:10 looks good too. Might have a nice little double

 

I've had a few quid on based on your say so, nothing serious, but I trialled doing patents on 3 football teams over evens in the summer, and found over the course of 3 weeks, betting each day, I'd have a steady profit. So any winnings will be reinvested in this to see how far I get.

 

Thanks on it..

 

Thanks on that too.

 

Ipswich were dreadful last season, but still managed to beat us 4-2 on the opening day. Whereas they might not have improved, I think it's safe to say we have got a lot worse. I think our defence is in for a torrid few months until they form a unit or we strengthen with more signings.

 

Can't argue Donks - especially with Yids undergoing a medical at Huddersfield.

 

Adding 2 other good things in Aldershot & St Albans to that treble takes it to over 17/1 , well worth a second glance

 

Dubhe is now at evens (was also briefly at 10/11) so I can actually cash out now with bet365 for a tiny profit

 

Haha yeah I had same this morning, they were offering me a cash out for £1.11 profit good job I'm not on board at Oakwell or I'd have taken it

 

I think you might need to familiarise yourself with Rule 4 deductions.

 

Hadn't checked to see whether there were any non runners, I just happened to notice I could cash out for more than my stake when I opened up the app.

 

Thank you.

 

Cheers orsen, bit of profit there for this weekends football bets.

 

Thanks mate, nice little drag that