orsenkaht

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by yarmtyke, Oct 13, 2017.

  1. yar

    yarmtyke Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2009
    Messages:
    159
    Likes Received:
    33
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Interested on your racing thoughts for Saturday
     
  2. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    No probs at all Yarmtyke. I did in fact put something up in response to Barnsleyshaun's post yesterday afternoon. But with rather more explanation, here are my views for today.

    Chepstow

    The best jumps card of the new season so far, and the big guns are beginning to emerge. But it's always a devil of a job knowing which trainers' horses are fit enough at this early stage, so I will watch the Attheraces replays closely this evening in the hope of learning something as the jumps season gets going. One thing I would say is that in recent seasons, Nigel Twiston-Davies' horses have tended to do well in this early part of the season.

    York

    Barnsleyshaun is going, and asked for thoughts on the meeting from horsey addicts on here. It's a fiercely competitive card and in truth I'd not be playing here, with one exception.

    2.40 SHABAABY
    Won a Class 2 conditions stakes at the St Leger meeting hugely impressively by 7 lengths on only his third start. Now tries Listed company, and he looks well up to it. He has about 9 lbs in hand here on my ratings, and while 11/10 (Bet365, Skynobet, Boyles) may not excite everyone it's a steal, given his chance.

    The only other thing I'd say about York today is to watch William Haggas's entries. Although he trains in Newmarket, William is Yorkshire-born (played for the county second XI, I believe) as well as being Lester Piggott's son-in-law! He is well to the fore in York's Champion Trainer standings and said in the week he'd like to clinch that accolade. It's therefore possible that he has lined one or two good chances up here.

    Newmarket

    A very bonny card.

    3.00 Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) EMARAATY

    Expert Eye is 4/7 favourite here and Michael Stoute's colt is 2 from 2, having impressively won the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood last time. EMARAATY was a £2.6M purchase for Sheikh Hamdan and is by Dubawi, out of a Group 1 winning mare that John Gosden also trained. He was very tenderly handled by Jim Crowley on debut at Sandown, where he was held up and asked for little but still stayed on strongly in to fourth for minimum encouragement. He then won his maiden most impressively at Newbury by over two lengths with the first two pulling well clear. He won despite still showing evident greenness, and he looks sure to improve massively again. He will need to, mind, as it is a big step up from maiden company to a Group1, but John Gosden knows the time of day. Be in no doubt, Expert Eye is the likeliest winner, but at 9/2 I think that Emaraaty represents a far better value bet. I notice that Bet365 are 1/4 odds a place, for those who like to go each way (I don't).

    4.15 NOBLEMAN'S NEST

    Won a Class 2 Nursery last time out at Doncaster. He won by 1.5 lengths, and is raised 11 lbs here, which looks tough enough. However, just look at the ease with which he won that Doncaster contest:

    http://www.attheraces.com/atrplayer-replay-popup/VOD/1004621

    I took 5/2 yesterday, and he is now generally 2/1. But you can still get 9/4 with Hills. Silvestre retains the ride.

    The other races at Newmarket are very competitive, and I'd be watching them. The feature race is the Cesarewitch, a 36 runner handicap over the extreme distance of 2 miles 2 furlongs. This is too competitive (and complicated) for me to bet in, but I have a way of approaching this type of race. I basically think that the three horses best suited to this sort of test are John Constable (9/1 Ladbrokes, Corals), Who Dares Wins (11/1 Paddys, Corals) and Euchan Glen (18/1 Paddys, Bet365). Combining your stakes in proportion to give the same potential return would bring you something like a £42 return for a total £10 stake (£32 profit if any of the three wins). That equates to a 24% chance of winning the race. So you have to ask yourself whether your three runners taken against the other 33 have a better than 24% chance of winning. Experience shows that often there may be something lurking in these types of handicap whose true ability has not yet fully been on show. There are six Irish runners for a start! So while I like the above three in this race, I think there are less complicated prospects to wager on - starting with the three in bold higher up!

    I'm very happy for anybody to disagree with me, and some might find my thinking simplistic, or just plain wrong! But it's a great day's racing, which I'll enjoy watching off tape (providing I get to it before the missus gets on to 'Strictly'!) when I get back from watching us lose to Middlesbrough (19/20 Bet365). Have a great day everybody.

    COYR!
     
  3. yar

    yarmtyke Active Member

    Joined:
    May 28, 2009
    Messages:
    159
    Likes Received:
    33
    Trophy Points:
    28
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Cheers Orse a great read.
    Re the reds, we tend to do ok against the better teams so here's hoping!!!!
     
  4. Con

    Connor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    6,103
    Likes Received:
    3,878
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Good write up , appreciate the tips .
     
  5. Wayne

    Wayne Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2005
    Messages:
    6,584
    Likes Received:
    279
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Barnsley, South Yorkshire, United Kingdom
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    What's odds on Shabaaby? Might have a fiver on it
     
  6. Sparky

    Sparky Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2011
    Messages:
    3,830
    Likes Received:
    3,306
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Love the write ups, keep em coming.
     
  7. Con

    Connor Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 21, 2013
    Messages:
    6,103
    Likes Received:
    3,878
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Around even money favourite
     
    Wayne likes this.
  8. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    11/10 has been hovered up - bits of evens available with Hills, Fred, Skynobet.
     
  9. Mid

    Mido Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2006
    Messages:
    11,569
    Likes Received:
    6,759
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Put my £3.50 profit from yesterday on the treble, long shot but here’s hoping.
     
  10. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    11,240
    Likes Received:
    10,618
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Well, apologies to anyone who followed me in on those three! This game is a great leveller at times. Shabaaby didn't appear to show what he showed at Doncaster, although beaten less than three lengths. Emaraaty was more in the way of a speculative bet. Provisional Racing Post ratings suggest he improved today by about three pounds, which was less than anticipated. I had a feeling that Expert Eye was under-priced at odds on but sadly it wasn't ours to take him down. A magnificent training performance by Aidan O'Brien to have the first four home. Nobleman's Nest ran 23 lbs below his Doncaster form according to the RPR's. So that's two from Donny where the form has not held up. Regular sufferers will recall me bemoaning the rain-softened ground at the St Leger meeting, and those form lines have proved fickle friends today! Still, it's a numbers game, and there will be more losers than winners - we just have to make sure the selections are a value price to win in the longer term. There were solid reasons for the selections today, so on to next time!

    A great point today - and some performance when you consider the financial imbalance between the two sides. All our players and Hecky can take great credit.
     
    Connor likes this.

Share This Page