Statistically the stand out team in the division?

Discussion in 'Bulletin Board' started by Gally, Sep 30, 2018.

  1. Gally

    Gally Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2009
    Messages:
    17,128
    Likes Received:
    12,789
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    York
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley
    I was just reading this interesting blog. This guy basically uses various publically available data sources to perform analysis on teams in the football league. After 10 games we are the outstanding team:

    "When we adjust for chance quality, Barnsley are still the standout team by some distance, so if they keep this up then anything less than automatic promotion would be a huge missed opportunity"

    https://experimental361.com/2018/09/30/scatter-graphics-league-1-29-sep-2018/
     
    JLWBigLil and Hicksy like this.
  2. RC_

    RC_tyke Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2014
    Messages:
    7,499
    Likes Received:
    8,673
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
  3. Gally

    Gally Administrator Staff Member Admin

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2009
    Messages:
    17,128
    Likes Received:
    12,789
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    York
    Home Page:
    Style:
    Barnsley
    bugger :)
     
    JLWBigLil and Extremely Northern like this.
  4. Ext

    Extremely Northern Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2011
    Messages:
    11,753
    Likes Received:
    1,949
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Occupation:
    Professional Northerner.
    Location:
    Preparing for the 4th division
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Yeah Gally get wit da program
     
    Gally and JLWBigLil like this.
  5. Jay

    Jay Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2005
    Messages:
    43,436
    Likes Received:
    32,134
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Location:
    On Sofa
    Style:
    Barnsley
    I'm beginning to question the entire validity of the model this guy is producing. Or the conclusions he's drawing from it at any rate.

    Another 19 shots, 6 on target, will be thrown at the figures from last night, proving again how dominant we were. Plymouth were 10 and 1. But would a critical analysis rather than a statistical one draw the same conclusion?

    There's no doubt that against Oxford and Rochdale we were hugely dominant, but that hasn't been the case in the majority of games. I'm not saying we haven't been the better team in some other games, but not to the extent these figures are suggesting.

    I've heard it said we need shooting practice. I disagree. We need passing practice. So we have the confidence to pick out a team mate in a better position rather than taking a pot shot when we're too far out or off balance.

    If we have the ball in the opposition half and it ends up in the Ponty End or trickling through to the goalkeeper, it's a waste, but it will add to our positive statistics in this model. We could end up winning this by a country mile as we slip to mid table.

    We need to create more chances not have more shots.
     
  6. Dan

    DannyWilsonLovechild Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2011
    Messages:
    15,811
    Likes Received:
    20,095
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley
    Completely agree, take out speculative shots from 30 yards and the stats would look very different for sure. I'm not sure its passing practice. I think most of them have the technique to pass and control really well. But composure and decision making is consistently poor. Its like we start to get around the box and they don't know what to do. I'm not sure the movement is great either to force a player to pass. There were a few decent cut backs from the byline, and one where Victor should have scored, but then we started doing that again and again, even though nobody was there. Maybe its football intelligence, maybe some don't have confidence to wait and be patient. This is largely a team of players who weren't picked consistently last year, so maybe we need to let them learn and grow into their roles.

    We'll see how they develop, but I think expectation of some was too high from the start compounded by a flyer in the first 4 games against pretty weak opposition. In all, its actually a decent start, and I'd hope over time and once Woodrow comes in and gives more striker options, that we can gel better.
     
    Kettlewell likes this.
  7. orsenkaht

    orsenkaht Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2009
    Messages:
    12,097
    Likes Received:
    11,928
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    I was quite downbeat about this squad's ability to rip up League One before this season started. The impressive start therefore came as something of a surprise. My only visit to Oakwell was for the Gillingham game, where we played some excellent football for the first hour and then began to look as though old failings were returning to haunt us. Since then, wins at Oldham and Fleetwood, but the loss to Coventry and disappointing draws to Walsall and Plymouth. We actually set off last year quite well with the home wins against Forest, Sunderland and Derby (Cup) before the malaise set in with results such as the poor home draw to QPR. I think the guy's stats may reflect that we have a squad many of whom played in the Championship last season, and who are carving out half chances at the lower level. But I have a feeling that fellow League One teams may be working us out and adapting. When we went up last time we basically had a team of Championship quality, even though it took a long time to get the best out of them. My feeling is that this squad is most definitely League One standard, although I bow to those on here who have watched them more often than I have.
     
    Kettlewell likes this.
  8. Dja

    Django Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2013
    Messages:
    12,291
    Likes Received:
    9,420
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Good point, from my reckoning we only created 2 really good chances last night which were the 2 low crosses from Cavare that found Thiam & Adebayejo.

    The other good efforts were two long range shots from Kieffer Moore & a couple of back to goal turn & shoot half chances.

    What worried me is that we’ve built our game on pressing the opposition yet when we were the ones been pressed we didn’t seem to know what to do & we were just hitting it long straight back to a Plymouth player
     
  9. Con

    Conan Troutman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 16, 2011
    Messages:
    17,469
    Likes Received:
    2,694
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Professional Football Fan
    Location:
    Tarn
    Style:
    Barnsley (full width)
    Not the one statistic that counts.
     

Share This Page