Theresa ‘Gollum’ May

there is never any proof with regards to future trade deals however theres enough evidence around that show other eu nations(and as ive stated,particularly the germans) do no want a no deal cliff hanger because it will be disasterous for themselves and not just us.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-warns-of-massive-crisis-from-no-deal-brexit

 

I’m sorry the fact check completely debunks the myth that nationalisation cannot.m done whilst in the EU as anyone with a modicum of knowledge knows it can. That it is a neoliberal enterprise that seeks to promote capitalism and prefers the private model is a completely different discussion. Of course it does and is. The UK has played a big part in making it that way. Conflating the two arguments is unhelpful

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ussels-nationalisation?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

 

https://labourlist.org/2018/01/the-...rket-rules-dont-prevent-rail-nationalisation/

https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2018/05/23/eu-law-lets-the-uk-renationalise-its-railways/

 

Ignoring the politicians, the experts generally agree that a "No Deal", WTO Brexit would be catastrophic for the country. The Economist for Brexit (Patrick Minford), has been in front of a Parliamentary Committee to state that it will lead to the winding down of manufacturing in the UK. That is 2.8 *MILLION* direct jobs. They also predict the collapse of most of the agriculture sector, including fishing - a significant %age of fish caught by British fishermen is sold into the EU - so without a deal exporting is harder. Indirect job losses could be a similar order of magnitude. Think of how many people lost their jobs in the pubs, shops, etc around Barnsley as the pits shut. It took over 20 years to recover from that.

This is one of the leading experts trusted by most of the Brexit advocates as their model for life outside the EU, and he is predicting losing potentially 3 million jobs as a result. The majority of economists predict something worse. Worst case, you could see 2-30,000 families losing their homes, which will lead to a collapse in the housing market (or being bought up by foreign investors). Of those, a small but significant number will commit suicide.

Minford's opinion is that we can retrain the unemployed into "Digital". Unfortunately, a significant chunk of those that lose their jobs will not have the skills, experience or ability required to work in that field. This is not meant as an insult, but 30% of people each year fail GCSE Maths. The pass mark with one exam board this year was ~20%. Given exam nerves, retakes, etc, you are still looking at in the region of 30% of the population not having the bare minimum skills to work in that field. That means, if we do manage to create these jobs then we will need immigration to fill them.

We are already being criticized by the UN for the levels of poverty in the UK. That will get worse if jobs go.

Other experts reckon that we will have issues with getting goods in and out of the country. Our port infrastructure needs a lot of investment to cope with the type of traffic coming in. Shortages of food? Shortages of gas? electric? nuclear isotopes for medical imaging?

Other experts reckon that there will be a shortage of medicine - in fact, anecdotal reports already exist of a shortage of some medicines as people are starting to stockpile. Those who most need their essential medicines are those that are least likely to survive without them for a few days or weeks while any backlog is resolved. The short-term affect of the extra hospital admissions and ambulance call outs will take the NHS to it knees.

There are warnings now of trouble if we go back on the vote and Remain, but can you imagine the carnage that will happen in a situation where the government has put the country in a situation where millions of jobs are lost and thousands of people die? There may well be riots if we remain, but there will be riots if we leave with no deal.

If we remain, there might well be an EU army (although many of the forces fight together now). There will also be a tax rule that stops rich people avoiding tax. It won't be perfect, but its a start. There are also initiatives to tackle Human Rights abusers (Majinsky Law), and to stop zero hours contracts and make it harder for employers to force people to break the working time directive.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope that most experts are wrong. I hope in two years time I'll just be a pillock on the internet who looked at the worst possible cases, but then again that is part of my job. You can only mitigate issues if you identify them and plan appropriately. The government has not been planning appropriately and it is far too late to start. But if you are a leave voter, and you are wrong, then look at the above and think how you will feel if even 10% comes true.

I'm ok. If I lose my job, I can sell up and move abroad. I have skills in demand around the world. Have you?

If you want to Leave now, and we end up staying, do what the idiots in charge of leave should have been doing over the last 20 years. Put a plan together. One that would work. One that doesn't mean chopping off your nose, an arm and both legs to get what you want.

 

One thing you can guarantee is that if we do leave any consequences will be blamed on Europe by Boris,Moggy and Co it’s been the scape goat of many’a failing politician

 

Does the EU have form for ensuring those referenda that go against them are either re run until they get the 'right result' or ignored?

So from that aspect it could be suggested it is edging towards being undemocratic?

 

Indeed - so we are not “taking back control in the national interest”, are we! Our railways are, in part, state owned just not by us - you can’t make it up! Of course, there will still be those who believe people like Rees-Mogg, Boris, Hove, Davies, Farage and Fox (often forget Fox!) have our best interests at heart in a no-deal, red, white & blue brexit - if you don’t agree with these muppets, you’re called unpatriotic! I am patriotic but not, definitely not a little englander!

 

Superb post . The 'send them home' bigots should read this over and over .

 

of course, the Mail, Telegraph & Express will state forcibly that this is Project Fear (remember their owners don’t pay tax here but they are “patriotic “). Please stop believing these self-serving liars - they want to carry on with their sickening tax avoidances tactics! A no-deal brexit will, in my opinion, be utterly catastrophic (& if that happens, I will blame those who caused it to happen)

 

Interesting that you trust the word of Patrick Minford (although that is not my recollection of what he actually said). You do know he was Margaret Thatcher's chief economic adviser in the early eighties don't you.? I attended lectures he gave whilst I was at university. At best, he has an odd take on the world

 

Or amendments were made, a second vote was held, and there was a significant change in vote amongst an increased turnout.

Democracy is not about a single snap shot based on a fixed moment in time

 

Spot on
If there was another vote it would seal the argument for good imo
The Brexiteers claim that the support is still there but defend against a second vote with their might because it’s not democracy ?
There’s no doubt and even the most ardent Brexiteer must agree that the real gains and losses of leaving/staying are now out in the open and people would now be able to make a more informed decision than was put to us last referendum.
I for one could stomach leaving more if a second referendum were held and went that way than the upheaval and politicking that’s going on now .
If as Rees Mogg and Bojo say the supports still there then why are they worried ?

 

Just out of interest, do you or any of your loved ones depend on medication to stay alive?

 

Actually in the case of the EU constitution defeats that's not what happened,after losing two referenda, everyone else's was cancelled, including ours...the issue was then divided up and put in to individual packages that wouldn't ' need ' consultation by referendum, taking it out of the hands of ordinary citizens and back into the politicians...only the Irish had a referendum as it was required in law...once it was altered to suit them everyone else ratified without asking the people of their respective countries.

 

yes,me,i've had cancer and i also take meds for my ticker

 

a referendum is, unless of course you are dealing with the EU then you can have as many as require till THEY get the correct call.

I simply cannot get my head around so called socialists(probably democrats too) begging for another vote,if this was somebody like UKIP calling for it you would all be up in arms and ukip would deffo be nazis. Double standards spring to mind,

 

marlon,thal let thi gob say owt

 

,
but will it be MUCH more difficult,there no free movement of people to other parts of the world yet many people up sticks and go,Australia,new zealand,north/south america,Africa etc etc if a country needs your skills then you can go,which incidently imo is much better than the current open door system we have,,I doubt very much Austria would be that different