This Brexit divorce bill thing.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...peration-eu-benefits-amber-rudd-a8082081.html

Cost might be more than money.

 

I've already posted this on other discussions on here, but the Investigatory Powers law was (yesterday) found to be against existing Data Protection law (again - 3rd time) - and definitely against the new GDPR when that comes in. As a 3rd country, the UK will have to apply for data adequacy (can't until 23:00:01 on 29/3/19) and is not guaranteed to get it with a law that breaks GDPR. This could leave a big hole in the data transfer and make it illegal for EU agencies to share personal data of EU citizens with the UK government.

Conversely, we don't currently have any method of granting adequacy to 3rd countries either, so potentially a lot of outsourcing contracts become legally dodgy at the same time.

These are consequences of a No Deal Brexit.

 

Interesting that you feel that way, and your are perfectly entitled to that opinion.

However, have you considered that if we were to join the Euro it would come just at a time when the Euro problems are coming to a head. i.e.
The very long road that the EU have kicked the Greek bailout down is reaching the end. Greece will never be able to pay it back, the creditors refuse to take a haircut and the latest bailouts simply served to pay interest payments dues on earlier bailouts (in true 'loan shark' fashion).

Draghi at the ECB, whilst having recently stated that the QE program is to be extended albeit at a reduced rate of 30 bn euros p.m. from 60 bn euros p.m, is still pondering how to end that program given that the EU growth rate (whilst on the face of it, is higher than the UK), is misleading due to its reliance on bond selling in relation to that QE program. In other words it is not 'real growth' (albeit UK productivity is even lower impacting our growth )

The architect of the Euro has himself stated that time is running out for the Euro as the politics have distorted the original concept into something unworkable.. i.e. a 2 speed EU. The EU debt runs to trillions is still growing. Italy's banking system is heading South and will need huge bailouts to prevent a collapse 'a la' UK (only worse).

France has a worse GDP to deficit ratio than the UK ( in spite of the aforementioned low UK productivity) and, even worse, as the third biggest net contributor into the EU budget after Germany and the UK will be expected to make up the shortfall after Brexit. This is one of the main reason that Barnier (French first and foremost) is putting UK money at the very top of requirements for a Brexit agreement.

Joining the euro means the option of using monetary policy to manage the economy would no longer be available in as much as we would have the inability to set our own interest rates which are set by the ECB (and heavily favour Germany). This, alone is the biggest failing of the EZ as what benefits Germany's economy is disastrous form many other member states like Spain, Greece and Portugal.

I don't want to stir up any argument but would be interested to hear how you think we would be able to integrate into the EZ without falling foul of the pitfalls of the current system outlined above. As stated before, I couldn't make a referendum decision based on what the long term future holds outside the EU (or even if there will be a EZ in the long term), especially with all the nonsensical claims and counter claims on both sides but based my decision of what I can see now, and living in continental Europe I did not like what I could see and where it is heading.

 

If the EU collapses, the UK is well and truly buggered in or out (along with most of the Western economies) The UK being in will strengthen it and make it less likely to collapse.

The same applies to the Euro to a greater or lesser extent.

My feelings for integration are on a personal level. I think we can achieve more by working together rather than against each other. Thousands of years of evolution and we are still too eager to kill, maim, rape, pillage and invade rather than sometimes taking the harder option and looking within ourselves to resolve our differences and achieve our potential. I think sooner or later, continuing the conflicts such as those of the last century will destroy the planet and our species.

And given the track records of our UK governments and electorate over the last 40+ years of my lifetime, I don't trust our archaic electoral system or incompetent politicians to run the country in the best interests of the people. They've had plenty of opportunities and fail far more often than they succeed.

I'm still looking for a single, tangible positive legacy of a Conservative government since WWII and am struggling to find anything other than short-term monetary gain for sections of our society and destruction of state assets.

 

Can't disgree with much of that although re 1st sentence I'd rather be rowing away from the sinking ship since, whilst life in an open boat is not an inviting prospect, it's better IMHO at least, than being sucked down by the undertow as the good ship EU slips beneath the waves. (As 2nd biggest net contributor who do you think would pick up a large part of the EZ bailout bill when it all goes pear shaped if we joined the Euro?)

The only thing re the Cons (and I am not a Tory in spite of what some say on here) I think they have a better grasp of real world economics (again IMHO) than the idealism and naivety of the Labour party's student economics, but they merely use that to benefit a small section of the population (i.e. their mates and the establishment) rather than the people i.e. the rest of us who actually create that wealth. It is all well and good Cons talking about a strong economy but most of us never see any benefit of that under them.
Labour, sadly, would bankrupt the country, whereas Conservatives just bankrupt most of us.. great choice that is it not?

I have always voted at any given time for those who I felt would do the least damage, and looking back, sometimes it was Labour, sometimes, the Conservatives and on at least one occasion Independent. That said, I have never known a period where I am so disillusioned with the choices on offer. I cannot bring myself to support O'Donnell and Corbyn simply because of their Economic strategy, but think the present Government are as weak, insipid, indecisive and rudderless as any I have ever known (and that is saying something).

EDIT. I forgot to add... the 'togetherness' of the EU is a very thin veneer under which national interests often come to the surface and I am not sure the competence of EU governments politicians and the EU is any better than the UK