No need to panic. I have given us a rancid set of results, one point from the next three games picked up away at Palace, and coupled that with giving all the teams around us a very generous set of results. It left us on the last day second bottom on 52 points with Huddersfield on 55, but with Birmingham, Burnley (!!!), Charlton, Peterborough and Blackburn all capable of being relegated (two slots available, Bristol City gone). The fact is though that a lot of the teams around us have to play each other and I generally put wins for someone rather than draws to increase the overall amount of points needed. What Burnley appearing in the mire also shows is that if all the teams currently around us do hit play-off form, it will inevitably suck others in. Wolves are now 10th by the way, just to give a flavour of my pessimism. I really do not for one minute think that the other results will be anywhere near as disastrous as this for us, although I think we could conceivably not win any of the next three. What I will say though is that the two home games with Charlton and Derby are vital, and if we don't pick up six points from those it will almost certainly be curtains - unless of course we win the next three, which as we all know this season is also absolutely feasible. Although according to my predictor of doom, we eventually go down on 55 points on goals scored to Birmingham, realistically I think 53 will be enough.
I can see us picking points up from Charlton and Derby, but beyond that I can't see us getting much of a sniff against the other teams we've got to play. So I think we'll struggle to get above 50. It looks to me like it's going to take between 54-57 points to guarantee safety. Tomorrow's looking like yet another cup final?
No one is going to need 57. My predictions included some very eccentric results and 55/56 was enough. Personally I think we'll lose to Leicester just because they are due a win and had an extra day off, but we're easily capable of winning at Cardiff or Palace, both of whom are showing signs of wobbling. Whilst we have a tough run-in, there is not a single game that isn't winnable. It's just vital that if we do hit a blip we don't panic, as a couple of wins and you're out of the drop zone. Regarding your point about Stones - even since he left we've shown Championship winning form. If we do go down it will be nothing to do with the second half of the season.
Honestly don't see how having a quality defender such as Stones could have done anything but helped. Short-sighted, expensive mistake. IMHO.
That's not the point though. Of course a player of his calibre isn't going to go amiss in the squad. It's just that it's questionable whether we would have picked up any more points with him than the incredible total we have already amassed since the turn on the year. Stones played in a large percentage of games under Hill, games the vast majority of which we lost.
And he was just about the only redeeming feature of the games under Hill. Obviously impossible to tell but his quality at Bristol and Swillsbro', and home to Bolton may have helped? Pretty telling that Moyes is not willing to loan him back. Not surprised if he features in the Premier League before the end of the season. As I said, short-sighted and expensive mistake. In my opinion.
In a totally unpredictable game...and especially in this league....whats the point in doing a predictor?.. May as well stand on the back-step and howl at the moon...
Correct. However, I mainly did it so I could see how many points we will need if a worst case scenario plays out - ie us going on a poor run with all of our rivals picking up points.