Is This Like Finding Money In The Street?

Sky Bet

Group F

Barnsley 7/4
Doncaster 6/4
Yeovil 2/1

[Eyed this up before we nicked M'Voto from the Pikeys - it looks even better now!]

 

Get ure house on this bad boy

 

Had some of that.

Also chucked on handicap 29 point starter.

Also chucked on a top half finish.

 

Spooky......just done exactly that!

 

13/2 for a top half finish looks interesting.

EDIT: Just noticed you can bet on it at either 11/2 or 13/2 on the same page

 

Yeah. Depends where you place it. Cos their is the price boost section. All clumped together if you go via the right menu. Obviously I picked the 13/2

 

looking in comparison, most years the points total for the handicap is actually less than a top half finish- 58 or 59 points often enough with 61 being the points needed to get in the top half. the main exception was the year newcastle ran away with it when youd need 70 odd points with 30 handicap.

anyone think e/w bet is worth it for the handicap at 18/1? I didnt use it personally

 

The top team has accumulated less than 90 points in each of the last three seasons, with Newcastle, as you say getting 102 four years ago. So if you believe the Reds will get 60 points or more, you're knocking on the door with the handicap bet. The only problem is that the top team will not invariably be the team who went off from scratch in the handicap. It may be that they had a '+' figure themselves. Also, the teams below top may well have a greater tally than the 'actual' winners of the league when their + start is taken into account. So your 90 points total (with handicap +) may actually need to be greater to win.

The idea of a handicap is to give each team a theoretically equal chance of winning the 'virtual' contest. With 24 teams in the league, the true odds of winning the handicap would therefore be 23/1, wheras the bookies offer you 18/1 (the difference making up the bookies' theoretical profit margin). The same is true of the each way part of the bet. To finish in the top four on the handicap, the true odds would be 5/1 -based on six groups of four - whereas the bookies offer (18/4 =) 4.5/1. This is where opinion kicks in, and if you believe your selection has a better than equal chance of finishing top or top four on the handicap, you have a bet.

The spanner in the works is that invariably, one, or maybe several teams out-perform expectations and bugger the bet up. OK, that may well be us this year, but remember we will have to out-perform the out-performers to win the bet, if that makes sense!

And here's another cautionary tale. I backed us on the handicap the year we made the Championship playoff final. We were safely in the playoffs before the season's end, and needed only a victory at Oakwell against struggling Crewe to win the handicap. On form, a shoe-in. What happens? Crewe win 2-0. Did Bassett get his team to take it easy ahead of the playoffs? Did he look after his old mate Dario Gradi? I don't know, but we lost. I'd bet each way, and picked up the place money, but felt I should have scooped the 18/1. So I've always thought the handicap bet is a fiendishly complicated one, with many twists and turns. Bookies love laying such bets, because many will let their hearts rule their heads, and go for their team without properly analysing things.

A more favoured bet, for me, is one that Corals often offer, amongst other firms. This is your selection's points total, usually in three groups (e.g. 56 or more, 53-55, below 53). Three years ago, the line was 7/4 for 56 points or more. Myself and Grandfathertyke availed ourselves, but only by dint of a RNL winner in a 1-0 home win over Millwall in the final game. Phew!

I like the SkyBet wager, because it's not over-complicated, and I think Yeovil can be knocked out straight away as I don't think they'll have the streetwiseness to get very high in the Championship. And yesterday's transfer dealings have hardly advanced Donny's cause!

 

Ah, I see, thanks for the explanation- I didn't realise it took into account the other teams' + or - handicaps too.

thanks for your help mate

 

Does it take into account goal difference? Is it literally the final table with just the points added on? And who won most handicaps last year, Palace?

 

Lumped on that!

 

SD I think you'd have to check the individual rules of the bookie you're betting with. I've just looked at BetVictor and they go on points only, so if two teams tied on points (with the handicap added) then dead heat rules would apply (I.e. you'd be paid full odds to half your stake).

 

SkyBet now 13/8!

 

13/5 with Stan James - amazing price.

 

I was sweating on that exact same bet, I sh*t myself when Milwall hit the post in injury time!

 

Whats this for? i'm confused haha

 

Forget the football if you want free money look at the ashes. You can get 4/1 on the aussies and 4/6 on england. I've been putting my money on england and laying it off against the chance that the aussies win. made some very easy money from the last two tests. I know theres the risk of the draw but with this glorious weather and the piss poor performances from the aussies its so unlikely i think its worth the risk

 

How much roughly do you wager.

I've just done a quick calc that £250 on England with £70 on Australia should deliver £95 for England and £30 if the Aussies win.

Somehow that doesn't feel worth it. Better than the bank though I guess.

 

That included Huddersfield though? Would defo prefer 13/8 without Huddersfield.

 

Whilst posts are being bumped reminding us of the positivity of this time last year I've just reminded myself - yes this was like finding money in the street - for the bookies.