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I have won about 400 on this before, bailed out then. Lost a few too. I have done a tenner through Rochdale last night and Plzen tonight. Just keep chipping away, looking at celtic tomorrow night, but not sure yet.

 

Not a bad shout in Celtic. Already put my money on Sevilla and Saint Etienne to win though @ 1/14 and 1/10 respectively. Fingers crossed. Like you, I too would bail out around the same mark, but probably upto £100 earlier.

 

No they're not fixed, the OFT would have a field day if they were. Losing 4 times in a row isn't unlikely but there's plenty of places with low minimums and high maximums so that isn't really the main problem of this strategy. I don't do it myself because it doesn't work unless you have an unlimited amount of money to begin with, which of course would make betting pointless anyway.

Martingale betting system actually. I studied this betting system and Martingales in general quite extensively during my degree/masters. They come up in all over the place but put simply, they model games where knowledge of past movements do not influence the probabilities of future outcomes. The stock market is based on these principles

You're correct in that the downfall is that with 'almost sure' probability you will encounter a sequence of losses that will bankrupt you. It's similar to the monkey, the typewriter and the works of Shakespeare if you're familiar with that. You cannot predict whether this phenomenon will occur far into the future or just the next attempt. All you know for certain is that you WILL become bankrupt if you continue with it. Stopping when you're ahead is introducing the element of risk back into the game which is what this method initially attempted to remove.

There's a lot of complex mathematics about game theory and betting patterns. I actually wrote my dissertation on the game Blackjack, the mathematics of Basic Strategy, Card Counting and using an efficient betting strategy called the Kelly Criterion to maximize your gain while ensuring your risk of bankruptcy is less than epsilon.

 

OK, I see what you're saying, but if your stakes are low, so starting from a pound, bearing in mind that it takes just one win to cover all your previous losses, you would have to encounter an incredible run of losses to bankrupt you. Let's you end up with ten losses in a row and then win. 1+2+4+8+16+32+64+128+256+512 = 1023. On the grand scale of things not a huge amount of cash. I'm not sure what the statistical likelihood is of ten blacks coming up in a row, because like you said any one outcome bears no relation statistically to the previous one. I reckon if you had ten grand to play with you'd be very unlikely to bankrupt yourself. But on the other hand, assuming each bet and spin takes about a minute and you've got a 50-50 chance of winning on each one, that's maximum earnings of 30 quid an hour. Not to be sniffed at but hardly likely to make you enough to be snapping up property in Monaco. And I imagine it would only take an hour or two to get very very tedious!

 

Started with £5 on Monday evening, 4 bets later I had £120 & then lost it! Bloody Brazilians!

 

By my working on average with £10k you'd go bankrupt within about 68 hours of playtime. So if you treated it as a job, less than 2 weeks.

 

Haha good man Be careful though as it's not as easy as it looks. For example the bet I mentioned earlier in this thread went down. I backed Sloane Stephens seed number 2 to win her 1st round match in Southern California and she lost in straight sets. She was 1/8 as well. Got back my stake with a new bet and withdrawn 50. Bayern Munich to win tonight in the Audi Cup has to be ya next bet surely

The 300 bets is alright because even with silly odds of 1/25, 1/33 etc a 10 fold can pay back around 1/2.

 

I've taken bayern as my next bet. Just not sure about celtic. Fancying a fiver on them to lose.

 

I did this reasonably successfully on Betfair a few years back. Got a £10 investment up to £140-odd quid, backing really, really short priced teams to win. Lots of Real Madrid & Barcelona bankers in there as I recall, and avoid the nags like the plague - seen too many odds-on favourites wandering in last!! You've just got to forget about it between bets, really, as it's painfully slow to build up a stash - watching winnings bets return the likes of 5p/10p would do your head in after a while. I withdrew £100 for a night out and got a bit cocky with what was left, making daft bets on stuff. Haven't got the patience to do it again.