Serious Value Alert: Community Shield

What is the most likely result? A Man Utd win - of course.

What are the percentage chances of each side winning?

If we accord the draw a notional 20%, I'd go 60% Utd, 20% Wigan (= 4/1).

Odds on offer: draw c.4/1 (20%), Utd - best price - 4/11 (73%), Wigan 10/1 (9%).

United have no 'Fergie Factor', have had a very average pre-season, and have the Rooney cloud hanging over them. Their coaching staff have all changed.

Wigan have thoroughly outclassed us, and come off the back of wins last season against Man City (Wembley) and West Brom, and draws against Villa and Tottenham. The better part of their Premiership squad is intact, and they've hit the ground running in a competitive match.

The Wigan price is way out of line, and while a Utd win is still most likely, 10/1 is way over the odds, and should be taken.

 

I think 10/1 on wigan for a glorified preseason friendly is cracking value

 

You're on drugs, am i the only one that wasn't ****ing Wigan off last week. They won't get an easier game, yes they were ok, but we were awful.

 

I'd love to see Wigan win but I'm afraid they had they're 15 minutes of fame in May. Even a reserve Man Utd side should be enough to see off any challenge.
I suppose if you wanted a wee earner then a couple of quid on a 10/1 shot might, I say just might come up.

Good luck if you back them.

 

Have they all been castrated? Like that tree you fancied for the King George?

 

Well I've ad a couple of quid on them bookies was onto Thomas cook as soon as I'd paid
Also had them with Leeds as a double 49_1
Also got an email from the king of Nigeria himself says if I send him my bank details he'll put £500,000 in it, just emailing.them to him now

 

49/1 on a wigan/Leeds double, where at? Thinking of having a few bob on Wigan myself.

 

Well I have to agree that Cirrus Des Aigles is a gelding, PSV. And I was disappointed! But I think that Wigan have a better chance than BetVictor's 10/1 would imply.

Betting is all about finding selections whose probability/chances of winning are greater than the odds imply. Depends on you being right about your assessment of the probability, of course, but if you were right 2 times in 10 about this sort of bet, you'd be in profit in the long run. Of course that means that 8 times in 10 you'd be wrong, but that's not the point - it's a long game!

And for what it's worth, I think the horse that beat Cirrus (Novellist) is some sort of bet for the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe, at 6/1.

It's all a game of opinions!

 

Sky bet, bet you probably could do better than that its just that I've got an account with them sends me letters addressed to Dear Cash Cow.

 

Novellist had already beaten Cirrus at Saint Cloud, so why was he was a bigger price for the King George? (I know, after timing is easy)

I'd wait till Trading Leather runs in the `Juddmonte` to see if it franks the form. I don't rate this years three years old at all.

 

A lay on Manchester Utd could also be good Value. Current odds of 1.37 or the double chance away/draw at 3.6 seem more likely that the 11s on the Wigan win...

 

The serious value will be when Swansea take on United next week.

Brian Laudrup inherited a decent side last season and seems to have improved it, the striker they've signed (forget his name) looks ideal for their quick attacking play and has a proven strike record. They've also played a couple of competitive games already this season in the Europa league qualifiers and may just be a couple of games in front of United in terms of match practice.

United have struggled in preseason playing mostly sub standard sides. Nobody knows how David Moyes will fair in his first games in charge of United, but I think they'll get off to a sloe start, and the signings he's promised dont seem to have materialised yet.

Swansea look decent value at around 100/30 to win. And i think they're at home too.

 

I'm not sure about this. United have had a very poor pre season and already there's mutterings about Moyes not being able to bring the success Fergie did. He will be desperate to win this and silence the doubters.

 

Bony. Stuck him in my fantasy league team.

 

Wasted your money

 

Unfair.

If I gave you 50/1 tips and only half of them won then the losers wouldn't make them bad value.

 

Not the only one. Good side but had we played with more intensity it could have been so different.