This theory states that everything that is know about a publicly quoted company is already reflected in its share price. It is therefore impossible to 'beat the market' unless you know something about a company that is not public knowledge (insider dealing). You may wonder what place this piece of information has on a site dedicated to the discussion of topics related to Barnsley Football Club. There has been a gradual realisation that our desperate league position is not down to previous managers' lack of motivational powers, inability to define a team structure that works or ability to select the right players. The most widely held view now seems to be that many of the players just are not good enough and the best course of action would be to replace the under-performers. There is also a widely held view that there is no money available to strengthen the squad, because either the revenue generated from player sales etc last season was overstated or the last manager overspent his budget on volume rather than quality. So, my question is, how efficient is the market in regard to the transfer pricing and the wage demands of players, and therefore how likely is it that the under-performers can be replaced within our budget. It seems to me that everything that it is possible to know about a player is now public knowledge. All players have agents who's job it is to maximise their clients career earnings. Just how can a team manager 'beat the market', which is what many people expect Danny Wilson to do during January. We know that he did it in the past, but is it not true that the information world is now a more sophisticated place.
Fortunately for us there is not a perfectly direct correlation between players' ability and team ability. Danny will build a team that will become more powerful than the sum of its parts. Hopefully.
A publicly quoted company is probably a fairly static organisation in the short term. Any changes to it's operations would take time to agree and to implement. Footballers, on the other hand, can and do respond and react differently to different circumstances. For example, a different manager, a different set of team mates, a different style of play. The skill lies in spotting a player who might prosper in the environment you are trying to create. Moreover, there are probably always more players attempting to make a living from football than there are available places. Here, the manager's skill would be in spotting those who might 'make it' - perhaps players from the continent, or youngsters. The 'efficient market' theory relies, like most economic theories on the assumption 'ceterus paribus', i.e. all other things remaining the same. A player moving to changed surroundings is a dynamic situation.
Burnley. They are even fairly near us, have more social problems/racism etc, less affluence in their area, and a worse comedy accent. IRMC