On the betting exchange I use, the 'yes' vote was 4.6 this time last week, went out to 5 at the beginning of the week, and is now 5.9. It's going to be a 'no' vote. Someone put £400,000 on it at 4/6 a while ago, if you believe what you read. You'd have to be pretty bloody confident. With that kind of stake, you ain't betting, you're picking up free money because you know something that others don't. I wouldn't even put £400 on a hunch, never mind £400,000. You detect which way the wind's blowing, and you bet in the same direction.
i couldn't care less if the Yes vote wins, but i'll laugh my fcukin c0ck off if it's a 'No'. will england then get a referendum to kick 'em out?
The same guy has apparently bet a total of £900,000 on 'no'. I suppose you never know how true it is, though. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/scottish-independence-gambler-places-biggest-4275013
£240 on 'no' at 1/5. Let's hope I can lay the bleeder off at some point in the afternoon. Love my Scottish brothers, me. Better Together. Etc.
well thats a conversation that i wouldn't want to get in to but that is my decision and will just have to be accepted. on face value, £16 and in for nowt (last season) is a decent hourly rate (£39's worth for 2 hours work). hth
How do they know? Just interested like as I've just read an article stating that no one is conducting exit polls.
Apparently exit polls are banned. As it's a first, any news about the public's voting tendencies could encourage others to come out and vote the other way. Or summat. Anyway BBC and other media aren't allowed to give updates till voting closes.
They aren't allowed in this instance - however the result of exit polls aren't usually released until polling has closed.
Read an article yesterday about a guy who had bet fairly big on both outcomes and stood to come out on top. He basically betted when each was at it's biggest odds. He regularly bets on political events, he placed a bet on Obama becoming President after his speech to the Democratic convention a few years earlier.
Of course the £900,000 bet on 'no' by one person would have sent the odds of 'no' plummeting, and those of 'yes' increasing. Odds fluctuate largely on money being staked. Hence when someone puts £10 on a manager to get the BFC job when we sack another one, he becomes odds-on favourite, even if he hasn't applied and we're not interested in him!
Found the article, he doesn't bet big though. http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...land-should-you-still-have-flutter-referendum
Looks as though it's already over. One out of 32 declared no thus far, and another having unofficially conceded defeat. Free money. Thanks, Scotland.
Turnout is lowest in some of the largest working class areas such as Glasgow and Dundee, the "Yes City" 8% gap in Clackmananshire, an area that was supposedly a barometer for Yes camp hopes because it was expected to vote yes. West lothian, another strong SNP area, looks unofficially like they have gone No. Sorry Arabian Ian, looks like this ain't even gonna be close.