Gotta Say, The Odds Look Wrong Again........

It looked initially as though the bookies were going to shorten us up after Saturday. But we now find:

Orient 6/5 (45% chance)
Draw 13/5 (27.5% chance)
Barnsley 13/5 (27.5% chance)

On recent form, I can't see that those odds realistically represent our win chance. Orient are 3 from the last 6. We are 6. Orient's 3-0 win on Saturday was against Yeovil, who have become cannon-fodder this season. I think it's vital that we concentrate first and foremost on not conceding. That will mean keeping very close tabs on Henderson if he plays a part (if we contain him, he'll probably not stay on for 90 minutes) and to a lesser extent, Dagnall. If we can keep it tight, we can nick one, especially if we play Sam late again. Their team does not exactly look stellar, and the manager is only slowly gaining the ability to speak to them in English.

I'm not saying we're a good thing by any means, but I believe the odds should have our win chance a lot closer to that of Orient. Modest investment awaits.

 

Darius henderson. Chris dagnall.

Two goals before we start.

 

On paper they have a pretty good squad. Surprising that they are where they are.

 

My recollection is of Henderson being a bit of a bogeyman for us, but he's not getting any younger (33), and was taken off after 60 minutes on Saturday. We might want Lewin (6'2") on him or maybe even BFJ (a more high-risk strategy?). I'd be disappointed if we can't contain Dagnall, with all due respect to his workrate.

 

Lewin Nyatanga 2-2.

 

Henderson always scores against us.

 

Everybody always scored against us ( until 3 weeks ago )

 

Surely the Odds are base on where the money has gone. Greater wealth in SE, therefore shorter Odds.

 

The bookies odds compilers start with their own opinion, BobT and will adjust only if there is a strong volume of money for one selection or the other. The odds were not dissimilar for last Saturday. I think the bookies are continuing to overlook the improvement in our form since Danny left. They will catch on sooner or later, and we will lose sooner or later. But at the moment the odds continue to be generous considering our upturn in form.

 

Fair comment pal.

 

As an outsider looking in all I would say is 6 wins in a row is an amazing run - something that happens to 'ordinary' teams once every 10-20 years so the likelihood of you winning 7,8,9,10 in a row shortens with every win. Tuesday night at Orient is a tricky match on any occasion never mind them winning 3 in 5 and having your ex striker bang in form. A draw would be a good result for you tonight.

 

Agree totally.

 

All fair comment. I'd take a draw now. But the point of the OP isn't to claim we're going to win, it's to point out that form suggests we have a better chance of winning than the 1 in 4 the bookies suggest and as such, if you are inclined to back Barnsley, tonight represents good odds. I think everyone is surprised by how poorly Orient are doing, they look a much better team on paper, but the fact remains they lose a lot of matches and you'd usually get much shorter odds backing a team in 6th place against a team in the relegation zone. We're 13/5 to win at Orient, Shef U, a team just one place and one point above us on a terrible run of form, are 13/10 to win at Walsall, a team 5 positions and 7 points above the opposition we are playing. I know which looks the better value.

 

Are you saying that because we've won 6 winning a 7th becomes less likely? If the matches were truly independent then that would be wrong as a simple matter of probability. The fact that the matches aren't wholly independent events and that winning breeds confidence means that (ignoring quality of opposition) after each win the chances of winning the next match increase.

 

This is where paul.p was invaluable.

 

Erm........probably.
Good luck tonight.
I think the winning run will end with a draw.

 

Here's my humble opinion and I stand to be corrected with my meagre GCSE maths.

They're right in the sense that winning 7 games on the bounce is less likely than winning 6, but the odds of winning match 7 remain the same.

Despite what the bookies offer, the odds of us winning are always 2/1 as there's two other outcomes that could happen besides a Barnsley win (Opponent Win or Draw), so I suppose a 7 game winning run should be looked at as unlikely in the sense that the odds are 2/1 the power of 7. If I'm right, thats 729/1. This is strictly speaking about it in pure mathematical terms, making no adjustment for form/weather/injuries/morale/venue/officials etc.

But no, (once again in pure mathematical terms) a Barnsley win tonight is no less likely than the first 6 were.

Going back to the bookies, this is why the odds tonight look very attractive. For starters they're greater than 2/1, which are the real odds and secondly we're in great form and confident.

In other words, at 13/5, snaffle it up.

 

That's what I was saying, except football matches aren't independent events like flipping a coin, and so the confidence that has built from winning 6 games means winning the 7th is probably slightly more likely than winning the first was.

The odds of us winning aren't always 2/1 however, as that assumes that each of the 3 outcomes is equally likely in every game, which it isn't. I understand you said in purely mathematical terms, but that doesn't help much in an analysis of whether 13/5 is a good bet. It's like saying the odds of the sun coming up tomorrow are 50:50 because there are 2 outcomes - either it does or it doesn't.

I don't know how to correctly assess the odds of us winning tonight. All I know is that having won 6 doesn't make us less likely to win tonight (if anything it's the opposite). Given we're bang in form and Leyton Orient are a bit crap I think that if this game was played an infinite number of times we would win more than 5/18 of them, and on that basis I consider it a good bet.

 

I'm not quite sure how winning football games makes you less likely to win football games...