George (Gideon) Osborne Plumbs New Depths

'Brexit would drive up mortgage rates'.

How does a man with no basic knowledge of economics become Chancellor of the Exchequer?

 

He was giving 110 percent during the credit crunch. I emailed him a spreadsheet explaining how percentages work and that he couldn't give more than 100 percent. Seemed important for someone looking after our finances to know.

 

Please explain how a basic knowledge of economics leads to a conclusion that Brexit would not drive up mortgage rates.

Then I might vote leave.

 

The mans a lovely person but if you are telling me anything said by boris Johnson or Nigel Farage is any more truthful then we are truly fcucked

 

So. Brexit. Trade suffers (on Osborne's model). We then raise interest rates and make borrowing to businesses more expensive. Trade/economic activity slumps. We then raise interest rates so as to make trade/economic activity more unattractive. Inflation rises unbridled. Weimar Republic. Doesn't really work, does it?

 

Boris is a toad.
Nigel I don't mind.
Gideon is quite hideous.

 

I did write to him on one occasion suggesting that my A level in Economics from the 1960's might be helpful and offering my services as a special adviser but he never replied.

Nor did he reply when with my image consultants hat on I suggested he would look more manly if he swung his arms when walking along. When next you see him look how his arms hang limply by his sides.

 

I'm not sure that my A level economics from 1981 can deal with that.

I still don't understand how a basic level of economics concludes that Brexit would not raise interest rates.

 

I fekin hate Osbourne and wish he was in the leave camp., but how the hell can Boris and his 'outers' claim our NHS would be better off outside the EU because they (those who are currently party to the shocking state our beloved NHS) would then direct the necessary funds to the NHS?

 

If you want to be governed from Brussels vote In. If you want to be governed from London vote Out.

 

Helluva lot more complex than that I'm afraid.

 

Even the Brexiteers admit that there would at the very least be a short term detrimental impact on trade. A lot of people think that the detrimental effect would be longer term. If trade and economic activity is depressed then the last thing you're going to be able to do is to put up interest rates. That would depress things further. I'm not arguing for Brexit, btw. I'm leaning towards in, and I think Corbyn made some very good points in midweek on that score - even if his enthusiasm wasn't totally unbridled. But I do object to Osborne using scare tactics and untruths to try and get his point across. At least he will further downgrade his case to succeed Cameron with nonsense like this.

 

If it's more of this type of Tory government then I'm all for Brussels.

 

Guardian

"The chancellor’s view on the likely direction of interest rates after an out vote is not widely supported. Most City economists believe an interest hike in the wake of a Brexit vote is very unlikely, given the Bank would want to shore up confidence. A Reuters poll this week found that 17 of 26 economists working in the City thought a vote for Brexit could prompt the Bank to cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis."

 

My economic education finished at 'O' level and that was close to 50 years ago, so I cannot claim to understand how this works. However, I do seem to recall that the Bank of England was made independent from government and was made solely responsible for the setting of interest rates. As I also recall, the primary driver for a change in interest rate was defined as the rate of inflation and the long term target rate for inflation was defined at 2%. A greater rate of inflation was deemed to be an indicator of an economy that was in danger of overheating.

As I say, my economics is 50 year out of date and in the past inflation regularly topped 10%. Government was thought to be responsible because of high borrowing, but since the melt down in the financial systems, government has regularly failed to meet borrowing targets and has continued to borrow at unprecedented levels, and this has not caused inflation to rise. With the basic pillars of my economic knowledge removed, I understand very little of the modern economy but it is my guess that the whole edifice is being kept in the air because of the confidence that the lenders (presumably Arab oil money) have that this country continues to be a safe stash loads of cash. The problem will come if anything happens to shake that confidence.

But what do I know.

 

I went to a conference type thing this week with a fund manager from the city.
He was pelted with questions.....and after a long and studious conversation....his personal view and many of his colleagues was that they just didn't know the long term outcome.
As we expect lots of short term uncertanty but they just don't know.
The inretest rate comment is very shallow....there s far far more to it than that.
He also said that through history all these things that we presume to have devastating effects tend to "sort themselves out!"

 

Have you not heard of the TTIP trade deal between the EU and USA? And how it opens the way for American health companies to buy European health services like the NHS?

 

Or if you want to live in a democracy, vote leave.

If you want to live in a European superstate ruled by unelected officials vote stay.

 

Thats a bit like saying its going to rain sometime though

at the moment apart from paying you to have a mortgage they can hardly get cheaper, the rates have got to go up at some point, whatever is the scapegoat at the time will get the blame.
Why anybody thinks that smarmy git would make a party leader is beyond me though

 

End of the day we don't fit with Europe. We don't share the same currency and how often are we at the negotiating table trying to get "special rules", we are like a square peg in a round hole. What we are getting now is "we are better in a reformed Europe" So who is going to reform Europe? They never like what we want so let's get out.