Jeremy Corbyn

"7 long years of austerity" compared to decades of paying ourselves mores and more whilst productivity fell and fell.?

I have serious doubts about the level of cuts and amount of austerity imposed which stifles growth and impacts on investment. Forget, for a moment, the oft quoted "127 economist " who support the Labour agenda ) as there are far more economists in the world than that and you could no doubt find an equal number who who disagree. Cherry picking those who suit your agenda doesn't mean a thing. Besides, economics is a very inexact science with too many variables and constant change to accurately predict the outcome. Rather like weather forecasters they often get it drastically wrong.

You have to remember, the last Labour administration left that famous note, and whilst it could be said that the 2008 crash was beyond their control. the US and Obama 'only' had to deal with that aspect of a shattered economy. The UK had to deal with, not just the crash but a huge public spending programme undertaken by Labour and the selling of of our gold reserve by Gordon Brown that literally emptied the treasury coffers.

Investment as advocated by Corbyn, when the time is right is a sound plan, but unfortunately when you have 'maxed out the credit card' you don't go spending more. You cannot invest what you do not have. Borrowing more means further debt, more tax money to service that debt that could have been spent on turning deficit to surplus and then reducing the national debt. That enables tax money being spent on infrastructure, NHS, education etc. If you struggle to pay the existing mortgage, leaving you with little money for heating, lfood etc, you don't go buying a bigger house with a bigger mortgage.
You asked "where is the money".. It has gone to reducing the deficit to a quarter of what it was.since 2010 Remember , Until the deficit becomes a surplus the UK cannot start paying off the national debt. which continues to increase.

The problem is Corbyn has it partly right and the Conservatives at the opposite end of the spectrum also have it partly right but the real solution lies somewhere in the middle.

Corbyn's huge public investment plans could and should increase GDP and stimulate growth and jobs but it comes at a huge cost of borrowing more which increase the deficit (investment is fine if you have the funds to do it but brorowing at higher costs negates many of the advantages. At least, unlike Greece UK can afford to service its debts. It simply kicks the can down the road. It is a huge gamble. It m ight just work or we could find ourselves in a bigger hole than we are now.

The Conservatives have it partly right, lower the National debt and borrowing reduces the servicing of debt. However it comes at the cost of low growth lower GDP and possible stagnation. Furthermore the idea that a strong economy should benefit the wealth creators, to them, seems to mean the CEOs, shareholders bankers etc rather than the people who actually do the real work of making things, the service industry people, the nurses, teachers, in short the people who keep the country running resulting in an unequal society.

As you see from the above, I am not a fan of austerity, at least not the extreme cuts imposed over the past few years by this Government especially the way some sectors have been targeted and other left alone Unfortunately, the unpalatable truth is that we are where we are after decades of overpaying ourselves, successive Govts' complacency and low productivity relative to wages. Many on here will disagree but, Corbyn's idea of investment works only if and it is a big IF, we are at the point where we have a budget surplus, or at the very least, zero or very low deficit. Then and only then can we consider investment to increase and grow the economy, GDP and reduce the National debt to a lower percentage of GDP freeing up taxes spent servicing debt to invest in things to grow the economy even more.
Unfortunately there are many other factors and a bad economic situation is like the Hydra -cut one head off and another takes its place.
IMHO as always both parties, have good and disastrous elements to their economic policies. Shame they are so divided they cannot get together for the mutual benefit of all.

I expect some will come on here and vehemently disagree, with the above and I am unclear as to the levels of austerity and investment but as I said, economics is an inexact science and there is no one correct solution. Any one who says they have the answer is talking nonsense.
Opinions eh!?

 

Them fixtures though. Wow.

 

I didn't start the thread ! It was not me it was some big boys and they ran away

 

That note was a private joke trying to keep up the tradition of leaving notes for the incoming Minister. (From the Guardian) "The letter recalls a similar note left by Tory Reginald Maudling to his Labour successor James Callaghan in 1964: "Good luck, old **** ... Sorry to leave it in such a mess.""

 

Unfortunately it did not make it any less true though.

 

It was an economic joke. But unfortunately non economists didn't understand it.

 

Summat to do wi' money int it? Or summat.

 

' Economic experts'..there is an oxymoron
The truth is they are as much in the dark as to what the future holds as the rest of us. Economists are like weathermen. They have more access to historical data than the rest of us but things happen that they cannot predict and have no real control over. What is the old saying?... "If you laid all the economist in the world end to end they would still never a reach a conclusion"

For every eminent economist who agrees with the Labour manifesto (in principal bearing in mind that, by their own admission some aspects have not yet been detailed or actually fully costed) there are just as many who will take the opposing view. Labour and Conservative are both at the extreme end of the spectrum when it comes to ideologies
.
Conservatives, are slowly removing the deficit with a view to reaching a surplus asap which, in their view, is the only way to start eating into the national debt and the sooner the better. The result however is severe austerity, stifling growth and causing hardship for most of the population, poor quality of life, and major problems of funding for public services IMHO it was too much too fast and came from a Cabinet filled with multi-millionaires out of touch with the electorate.

Labour, on the other hand, aim to stimulate the economy by spending but increasing the deficit and therefore increasing the debt still further. They believe that the level of national debt is less important than the ratio between Debt and GDP. They may have a point. However, that is fine until something unexpected happens like the financial crash as , for it to work, the predicted growth in GDP must be sustained which is where Labour came unstuck last time. All those "eminent economists" failed to see that coming!!. Labour had nothing put by for the 'rainy day' That arrived in a deluge unfortunately for them. Some on here say Labour are advocating the German model and they have a thriving economy - except.... they are running the highest budget surplus since 1991 reunification and a lower debt to GDP ration than the UK whilst we have a deficit. You cannot therefore compare the two economies. I understand why some economists favour the latter (Labour) approach as, whilst it enables the country to increase GDP and service the debt it keeps the country indebted to the investors and banks (where many of these 'eminent economists' loyalties lie) and a desire to maintain a status quo.. It appears they have not learned from the past.

Either approach COULD work given time but we flip-flop between Low tax low public sector investment and spend and higher/tax higher public sector investment ideologies and each change buggers up the other just as they might be starting to have an effect.

Before people leap down my throat, please read and consider my post which does not endorse or reject either Labour or Conservatives approach. I admit to the cautious approach of ' not a lender or a borrower be' (slightly unrealistic in today's world). I just feel the need to comment when people on both sides put their faith in economists and stuff they read as if they are incontrovertible facts. Nowhere in this post do I claim to be right but I challenge anyone to prove these economists (eminent or otherwise) are as infallible as some on here believe them to be.

A bit of healthy scepticism is the order of the day[/QUOTE]

 

Where is the 30/40% figure from? Cant find reference to it on t'internet.

 

Just been watching the State Opening of Parliament. Wage increases, investment in public services, police and
schools. Weren't they some of the policies that Jezza and his team were putting forward.?

DUP still playing hardball as up to now there is no formal agreement with the Tories in place.
It will be interesting to see how the vote goes. Doubt if the DUP don't vote against because they hate Corbyn due
to his past discussions with Sinn Fein.

Best part for me was when Black Rod said to the Lords " Her Majesty has asked that you join
her in the House of Peers." and Dennis Skinner ( The Beast of Bolsover) shouted " an get your skates on , first race ( Royal Ascot) starts at half past two." Introduced some mirth into what usually is a very dispassionate process.

Glad they didn't go for all the usual ceremonials re- robes, crowns and carriages. Said it was because they hadn't had time to rehearse using the horses required so soon after the Trooping the Colour ceremony.!

Like to think the terrorist atrocities in Manchester and London and the Grenfell Tower blaze tempered the need for the usual
ostentation and in part helped in their final decision making.

Also great to hear that the survivors of the blaze pleaded with Far left protesters not to hijack their grief by staging
a " Day of Rage" outside Westminster. No doubt plenty ignored their pleas but from what we could see the security services must have held them at bay and the event appeared not to be disrupted.

 

Unfortunately all good jokes (economic or otherwise) have to have an element of truth in them.

 

I find all this moaning about austerity quite amusing. Undoubtably some are affected, but if you go to any U.K. Airport in any month of the year, people are flying off on holiday to far and distant places. Car sales during this period have reached record levels, possibly thanks to the Conservative government increasing the Personal Allowance to over £11,000.

As a pensioner on a minimum pension, I can't afford to buy a new car, but I dread to think what would happen to my situation with garden taxes etc. Under a Corbyn administration.

 

Must be a real struggle for you to keep your two houses going, particularly with Euro so low .....my heart bleeds

 

It's from David Davis to the Brexit select

There's a live feed of DAVIS giving evidence to the Brexit select committee.

When pressed on the possible impact of no Deal he says that due to CAP there would be 30 to 40 percent if we leave with no Deal 10-20 percent on cars etc. Quite detailed and frightening answers tbf.

I will have a look for it when I'm out of this bloody meeting.

 

My best mates missis is just about to quit nursing to work for Aldi because it pays better. In real terms she has had a pay cut of 14 percent over the last 7 years as have police, fire fighters etc. Still the mega rich have got richer.

 

Aye the international financial crisis had an impact on finances but still a joke given a country cannot run out of money as it's fiscally impossible as you know.

 

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/841946368402948096

 

My wife dedicated close on 25 years of her life to the NHS as a nurse. As well as the poor pay her shifts were changed
to 12 hours which with handover briefings and travelling to and from could see her working a 14 hour day.
She had to work bank shifts ( overtime) to earn a decent wage.

She used to come home absolutely shattered and quite often because of staff shortages and sickness she rarely got time
to take her break. On her last Ward they didn't even have a defribulator they could use in an emergency.
The other downside was because of the Patients Charter relatives of patients were always submitting grievances of one kind
or another which had staff on edge every single shift.

In 2011 due to negligence she slipped on a wet patch in a sluice room and caused damage to the meniscus in her knee.
As a result she couldn't manage to walk for 12 hours on the hard concrete floors so after an out of court settlement brought about through her Union after three years of wrangling she took the money retired and also took her pension.

She now runs her own domestic cleaning business runs a little car and with her pension added in earns as much as she did when she was working but more importantly is well in herself and enjoying life to the full.

When she first started nursing she loved it but I would say for the last four years of her contract she detested the very
thought of going to work and literally hated every minute. I know through speaking to her many co-workers at least 80% feel as my missus did and can't wait to quit.
As someone who literally enjoyed every minute of the job I did for the last 30 years I feel very sad about that particularly with
the pressure and responsibility those wonderful lasses have to endure.

 

1 Benn's approach as 'chairmen' appeared to suggest he had an agenda.
2 These figures were as things stand - Davis was being careful not to be drawn into the trap of making statements in answer to very leading questions from Benn whom is one of the leading prop EU advocates . Depending on your point of view - some say Davis was squirming, others would say he was cautious and not drawn into Benn's Paxman style of questioning - interrupting replies and not really wanting to listen.
3 I thought the CAP was up for revue and major changes so this 30-40 being talked about is unlikely. Besides, Benn put that figure (a bit of clever politicking) and Davis (or anyone ) cannot know what the real figure is likely to be so he could not contradict Benn and had to accept that it could be those figures (damned if he did, damned if he didn't)

Still, IMHO , it's likely the longer it goes on, the EU we leave will not be the EU that exists now

 

Davis clearly accepts the 30 to 40 percent. You would expect him to know though he clearly has done much homework on the no Deal consequences.

The impact on businesses would be absolutely massive if we leave with no Deal. I don't think we will but it very chastening if we do.

The Brexit fiasco I think has brought Europe together. They are looking at the political upheaval it's caused and are more determined than ever to stick together imo.