Over-priced for promotion and relegation

Just been listening to the ntt20 podcast on which there was a consensus that Brentford are way overpriced and look good for a shot at the top six, and QPR were overpriced for relegation.

What would your picks be and why?

 

I think Derby will do well with Curtis Davies and Huddlestone joining and Rowett as manager. Sheff Utd at 8/1 are overpriced to go down. I don't think they will but 8/1 is generous.

 

I put up Middlesbrough for promotion on here on 25 June at 11/4. Since Steve Gibson took over as owner/chairman in 1994 they have achieved promotion three times (1995, 1998, 2016). Gibson has indicated "we want to smash the league". Given his record, and the parachute money behind them, that's a fair old statement of intent. That has been backed up by their spending: Assombalonga 15M, Braithwaite 9M, Fletcher 6.5M, Randolph 5M. They have also captured the excellent Johnny Howson from Norwich. They have offloaded Jordan Rhodes, who Karanka never really wanted, and who hasn't fitted in with Boro's style. While Rhodes demonstrates that the big money signings don't always come off, in Garry Monk they have arguably the second best head coach in the division, and I dare say he will have had considerable input into the signings. Boro have shortened since I put them up, but you can still just about get 2/1 for promotion. Compare that to the 9/4 available for Newcastle to win the whole thing this time last year - which they just about managed. With this bet Boro could even finish sixth and still get us paid out - provided they won the playoff final. I expect them to be strong all year.

You'd expect Norwich and Villa to do better with second season parachute money, but they'll both have to be better organised than last season. I reckon Fulham and Derby will also be contenders. But Boro still have to be a very interesting bet for promotion (rather than outright). On the handicaps, you can get 18/1 for Hull +12 (admittedly a bit of a guessing game) or Birmingham +16 (Boyles, Skybet) who might just conjure something up with Harry in charge.

For relegation, I'd expect Burton, Bolton and Millwall to struggle, but they are all short. I think that the Blunts don't look equipped to prosper - I suspect their squad average age is probably quite high. But Wilder is wily enough to get them sorted out for survival at least. At 8/1 (Paddy Power) I think that Bristol's chances of survival might just be over-rated. They have their 5M striker from France, but will he be as good as Abraham? Not that we'd wish little Lee any harm now?

 

I think Sheffield United will be well clear as much as it pains me to say it. Ched Evans aside they've recruited fairly well and Chris Wilder is a decent manager.

As for overpriced, Harry seemed to steady the ship at Birmingham and has been backed to the hilt. 10/1 for them to be promoted seems a big price. I agree with Brentford though, they've added to what was already a good football side. Similar to Fulham last season.

In terms of relegation, I fancy Leeds to struggle much more than the bookies seem to predict. They've not had a good track record over the last few years in terms of sticking by a manager however they are under new ownership now. Some of the players they've signed might need time to adjust to the English game, and they were in freefall at the back end of last season. They could be in for a tough start and might never recover. 16/1