York Day One – Wednesday 23 August Cut to the chase version (my more detailed thoughts appear below): 1.55 No Bet 2.25 DEE EX BEE 3.00 MIRAGE DANCER 3.35 CHURCHILL 4.15 No Bet 4.50 ETEFAAQ/SAVALAS York is a perfectly flat, galloping track which is fair to all types of horse. Results can sometimes become unpredictable if the ground is soft, or in firm conditions, if watering has taken place. At the moment the going is given as good to firm, good in places, which didn’t ought to upset things. As I write this there is light rain outside which should mean Mr Darby (clerk of the course) keeps his watering can locked away. As regards the draw, in 5f/6f handicaps the low numbers appeared to have an advantage in 2015 and 2016, but in 2014 and this season there has been a more even distribution of winners across the track. The standout trainers on strike rate over the last three years have been William Haggas (24%), Michael Stoute (20%), John Gosden (24%) and Charlie Appleby (22%). The jockeys to follow in the last three years have been James Doyle (18%) and Frankie Dettori (19%). 1.55 Sprint Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 5f NO BET The average price of the winner of this race over the last five years is 9.5/1. Fifteen of the twenty runners here are rated within 3-4 lbs of each other, which in handicapping terms equates to just over a length. Of those who like to race prominently or lead, three are drawn high, two in the middle and three low. So no help from the draw. So everything about this race screams “no bet”. Of course that’s not much fun if you are on course, so if my arm was twisted I’d play a place-only bet (4 places) on the Tote on (No. 1) Out Do (won the Wokingham at Royal Ascot) and (No. 2) Moviesta (owned by Harry Redknapp, and has been brought over from Ireland for this). 2.25 Acomb Stakes (Group 3) (2yo) 7f DEE EX BEE This is a bonny 2yo race which in 1999 was won by the following year’s 2,000 Guineas winner (King’s Best) and in 2003 by the following year’s St Leger winner (Rule Of Law). Two favourites have won in the last five years, but there have also been winners at 11/1 and 16/1 (twice). The two main players here look to be Dee Ex Bee, trained by Mark Johnston (15 wins from 77 runs (19%) in the last fortnight – but admittedly not a great overall record at York) and Fleet Review, trained by Aidan O’Brien (14 wins from 58 runners (24%) in the last fortnight – York doesn’t yield his highest winning strike rate either). Whereas Fleet Review has improved over four runs to date, Dee Ex Bee equalled the Irish colt’s achievements on his sole run to date when winning at Goodwood in a fast relative time. Dee Ex Bee broke well and soon led that day in a Class 2 maiden. Being drawn 1 here, he is well placed to repeat that tactic as they take a dog-leg left hand turn into the straight after a couple of furlongs. Moreover, that win was over today’s distance of 7f, whereas Fleet Review has been raced only over 6f so far. Interestingly, Aidan O’Brien’s last 21 2yo runners at this meeting have been beaten, including four who started as favourite. With arguably the greater scope for improvement after just one run, I prefer Dee Ex Bee for win purposes here. Of the others, I’d respect Lansky, ridden by French jockey Gerald Mosse, who is retained by the owners. Mosse came over to Windsor last week to partner Lansky when making a winning debut, and he too must have further improvement in him. Dee Ex Bee is 11/4 with three firms at the moment, which I’d be taking. 3.00 Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) (3yo) 1m4f MIRAGE DANCER A great old race and usually regarded as one of the better St Leger trials. Milan, Rule Of Law and Lucarno have all gone on from winning this to scoring in the Doncaster classic. In 1977 Alleged won one of the better renewals by eight lengths before going on to win the Arc twice. Cracksman is probably a worthy favourite for this, having finished third in the Epsom Derby and then second in the Irish version. His last win came back in April in the Class 2 Derby trial at Epsom, which doesn’t even enjoy listed status these days. And if you were ultra-critical, you might say that he just lacked that extra change of gear which marks out a truly good horse at the end of the two Derby’s . This is reportedly his last run of the year, and he will then be put away for his four year old career. That just suggests to me that he is still a work in progress, and that we may not see the best of him this year. While the best you can get about Cracksman is evens, Sir Michael Stoute’s Mirage Dancer is available at 5/1. This too is an improving colt, having raced one time fewer than Cracksman. Both colts are by Frankel, but Mirage Dancer is out of a mare who was rated up to a stone better than the dam of Cracksman. Third in a Group 3 at Royal Ascot last time, Mirage Dancer is not very far behind Cracksman at all, and arguably possesses the greater scope for improvement, with Stoute renowned for bringing about steady improvement in his staying colts. Atty Persse and Khalidi have made good strides this season but look a little bit short of the level of form of the first two favourites. Aidan O’Brien fields three runners but doesn’t enjoy as much success with his less fancied runners at this meeting. Mirage Dancer looks the classic each way bet, but I’m happy to take him for win purposes given the discrepancy in price between him and Cracksman. 3.35 Juddmonte International (Group 1) (3yo+) 1m2.5f CHURCHILL The best race of the meeting, and arguably the British flat racing calendar. This is the race in which Frankel trounced Group 1 opposition in 2012 – the best performance I expect to see live on a racecourse in my lifetime. Four of these are already Group 1 winners – three of them this season. Churchill (English and Irish 2,000 Guineas), Barney Roy (St James Palace Stakes) and Ulysses (Eclipse Stakes) are this season’s G1 scorers, and there appears to be very little between them on the ratings. But when Barney Roy beat Churchill at Royal Ascot Churchill ran about a stone below his previous form. Maybe he was feeling the effects of contesting the English and Irish Guineas within a short space of time. If that is right, then there may be better to come still from Churchill after a longer break this time. It’s unlikely, given his stallion potential that Coolmore would be risking him in this race if they didn’t feel the colt was over whatever ailed him at Ascot. Barney Roy didn’t progress further when beaten by Ulysses at Sandown, and Ulysses himself produced no advance in form when behind Enable in the King George. Enable was herself beaten earlier this season by Shutter Speed, who runs here. But Enable was unfit that day, and her improvement has come afterwards. Shutter Speed didn’t show her running last time in France as Frankie was nursing a broken shoulder and couldn’t ride a finish. She is a rapidly improving filly but I think that she has too big a task on here on what she has achieved to date – a comment which also applies (in my view) to Decorated Knight and Cliffs Of Moher. My Dream Boat won the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes last season but has not replicated that level of form since. Churchill alone of this field carries the Timeform ‘p’ denoting potential further improvement and if they are right then any further progress may enable Churchill to come out on top trying this new trip for the first time. While the dam of Churchill boasted a speedier pedigree, Galileo (Churchill’s sire) usually stamps his offspring with plenty of stamina. With 11/4 about Barney Roy, 3/1 Churchill and 7/2 Ulysses, Churchill looks the value to me here. Aidan O’Brien and Michael Stoute have both won this race five times. Hopefully Aidan will make it six. 4.15 Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+) 2m 0.5f NO BET Another very tricky handicap where seven of these are rated within 4 lbs of the top rated horse. The average price of the winner over the last five years is 10/1. The winner might come from one of these (but I won’t be backing it!): Oriental Fox – won over further at Royal Ascot but is difficult to predict and is higher in the weights. Oceane – won this race last year but is 7 lbs higher and hasn’t won since. Cartwright – may be another Sir Mark Prescott plot, 5 wins from 12 starts. Theydon Grey – won his last three, all at York, 6 lbs higher this time. Euchen Glen – only raised 2 lbs for an Ascot win last time when value for more. 4.50 Nursery Handicap (Class 2) (2yo) 6f ETEFAAQ/SAVALAS (stakes split) Another tricky one to finish! Two year old handicaps are particularly tricky, I’ve found. But if you’re tempted then you need to be looking for ones with a little more promise than the handicapper has allowed for. With no great claims to having studied them all in detail, I’d tentatively put two forward. Etefaaq (Frankie Dettori) looks the class horse in the race, having contested Group 2 races the last twice. He didn’t show up particularly well in those, but therefore may not be rated as harshly as he might have been, given that his trainer (Richard Hannon) thought him up to that level. His form at Goodwood last time ties in with some nice horses and he is probably open to improvement now his sights are lowered slightly. Further down the handicap Savalas may have got into this race on a nice weight following his win at Thirsk. Along with Etefaaq he may be the other likely improver in this race and could end the opening day with a win for Barnsley, being owned by Pete Tingay and his Mrs. Good luck to anyone going – have a great day.
A very informative read weather looks decent. Does Pete Tingay also own Tommy Taylor ? trained by Kevin Ryan. Aidan O Briens stable stars were his fillies Minding Found and Seventh Heaven as well as the ultra tough Highland Reel. Highland Reel probably being saved for the Irish Champion stakes. Not sure if Churchill will stay as he did not take his chance in the Derby. He definitely needed a break and if back to his best will be a strong contender but at the prices I prefer Cliffs Of Moher pipped on the post in the Derby despite sweating badly before the race and being almost brought down when 4th and favourite in the Eclipse.
Yes LTM , Tommy Taylor also runs in the colours of Pete's missus, Mrs Angie Bailey. The horses originally ran in his own colours but he stated "I never had no luck until Angie came into my life." He said that six years without a winner made it very easy to change to running them in Mrs Bailey's colours. Things looked up thereafter, and their Astaire won both the Gimcrack (Group 2) and the Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) as a two year old in 2013. He would presumably have had a future at stud but sadly died of colic before he could take up those duties. Tommy Taylor is entered in the Ayr Gold Cup on 23 September. Their Brando recently won the Prix Maurice De Gheest (Group 1) at Deauville, and is entered in the Haydock Park Sprint Cup in September and the British Champions Sprint at Ascot (both Group 1) in October.
Sky bet are offering money back first race if your horse gets in first four placings, and paying extra place terms on last two races. Looks a good card but very tricky to bet winners
Yes Brando is a top class sprinter won easily in France and Pete kept faith with Tom Eaves. Stable had a party afterwards, Reading your first post I too respect the former Bryan Smart inmate Moviesta he likes York and will appreciate the drop back to an extended 5 furlongs. He ran a cracker last time behind the speedy Aidan O Brien Washington DC he made his run with the favourite just weakening out of the places close home.
Fairish offer Connor -Skybet have ceased to take my bets. As I hinted in the write up, Moviesta might have a chance and it looks an interesting bit of placing. But this is a four day meeting and the first race is a definite "no bet" race for me!
Looked at moviesta , but they saying it wants good to firm and won't want any rain . Rain forecast today , i always bet watchable in these big races so will have a small bet each way that too
Great report pal, as a placepot player in not necessarily looking for winners so some of this info is very helpful, one I do fancy is platitude in the 4:15 do you have an thoughts on that one
Two wins and two placed efforts from 13 starts, HR. One of the wins was in Listed class over 1m6f. He hasn't yet raced over this far. Ryan Moore has only ridden him twice (2nd and 3rd). My overall impression is that in top handicap races such as this, his current handicap mark maybe is just a little high. However, as I indicated in the preview, its a very competitive race, with numerous possible winners. Not one I'd personally be betting in. The horse does act on good to soft though, which looking at the skies at the moment, may be no bad thing!
The skies look loaded at the moment Connor - in contrast to the forecast for today given earlier in the week! Let's hope some of it passes York by. It looks drier for the rest of the week.
Yeah I know the extra distance is a slight worry but I know Stouties a shrewd operator and if anybody can its him and Ryan Moore is a plus, think I'll lump on but only e/w thanks for the time and info its always appreciated and taken on board good luck with what ever you bet on pal
