York Day Three – Friday 25 August Day One Races: 4 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -40.00 Day Two Races: 3 Wins: 0 [1 place] Profit/Loss: -15.00 Presenter: How will you cope with playing in the Premier League? Redfearn: Well, we’ll try and win a throw-in and build on that! I was reminded of that classic piece of sarcasm from Redders with today’s results at York. Just a place to mitigate the damage from my three selections today. Great Prospector almost got there but found a Hannon inmate just having a bit too much for him. The drop back from 7f to 6f didn’t assist, whereas Tangled was not inconvenienced at all and maintained his improvement. Happy Like A Fool, by contrast could have done with a furlong less, as she looked the winner of the Lowther two out. Slightly aggravating to see Mark Johnston’s Threading come on from her Goodwood win to take this given that she had an incredibly similar profile to the same barn’s Dee Ex Bee, who flopped so badly yesterday. Heigh ho! Enable and Frankie were very impressive – is the Arc at her mercy? Anyway, this is how racing goes sometimes, so onwards to Friday! 1.55 Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 1m 4f No Bet At the risk of sounding repetitive, eleven of this field are rated within four pounds of each other and it is arguable that any of them could win on a given day. Among the higher rated and arguably most promising runners is Game Starter for Godolphin’s Saeed Bin Suroor. He won with some authority at Newmarket last time and would be my pick if forced to have a bet. But he is upped in class (Class 3 to Class 2) and has been raised 10lbs in the handicap for this, a more competitive race. I find that with this sort of race a true calculation of whether the odds are in your favour – even if you take a number of them against the field – is simply impossible. It’s therefore hard to justify recommending a bet. 2.25 Lonsdale Cup (Group 2) (3yo+) 2m DARTMOUTH Dartmouth won the Yorkshire Cup at this track in May over 1m6f. He finished in front of Dal Harraild last time and in front of High Jinx the time before. He has two wins at Group 3 level, two at Group 2, and has twice been placed in Group 1 races. He has won on good to soft and run to his best on firm going. He had some high class form at 1m 4f before being directed down the staying route. He looks the class horse of this field. Sir Michael Stoute has a 22% wins to runs ratio this season, and that ratio applies to his York runners also. But in the last fortnight he has achieved 10 from 29 (34%) and has already had Ulysses go in this week. At his best, Sheikhzayedroad would rate very close, if not above Dartmouth but the suspicion is that at the age of eight he is now in decline, and may not return to his very best. He did beat three of this field however (Prince Of Arran, High Jinx, Higher Power) when down the field in the Goodwood Cup. The others do not look quite up to this grade, although Thomas Hobson recorded a win at Royal Ascot and a second at that meeting the same week. 3.00 City Of York Stakes (Group 3) (3yo+) 7f No Bet Another fiendish race with ten of the runners within four pounds on the ratings. Hard to even put up a suggestion in such a competitive field. 3.35 Nunthorpe Stake (Group 1) (3yo+) 1m4 No Bet This is arguably the race of the week. Four of the field are previous Group 1 winners, headed by Lady Aurelia, with two wins at that level and at least two truly exceptional performances on time to her name. But her best time performance has been matched once by Battaash, who has a Group 2 success to his name, but is undoubtedly the rising star amongst this field. Should both these horses fail to fire, the excellent Profitable and Marsha are waiting in the wings. The latter two were second and third to Lady Aurelia (won by 3 lengths) at Royal Ascot, and occupied the same positions behind Battaash (won by 2.25 lengths) at Goodwood. Lady Aurelia received 9 lbs from Profitable; Battaash received 3 lbs from him. Lady Aurelia receives 3 lbs from Battaash today. A literal reading of those form lines gives less than a pound difference at these weights between Lady Aurelia and Battaash. Their respective prices are Lady Aurelia 6/4 (40% chance) and 7/4 (36% chance). The combined likelihood of one of them winning this probably exceeds 76%, but £10 split between them would return just over £3 profit. As JP McManus once said (paraphrased): “sure, if I had the £10, what would I want with the £3!” If there is a bet in this race then I would argue that it is Profitable each way at 16/1 with Skybet, Ladbrokes or Corals (1/5 odds, 1,2,3). Quarter the odds at 16/1 would return £21 for £10 on if the horse places. That is equal to 11/10, or a 47% chance of placing. By my reckoning there are only four horses with any sort of chance of placing on all known form in this race. Of these, Profitable has had the edge over Marsha in their last two races. There is always the slim chance that Lady Aurelia and Battaash will under-perform, giving Profitable the chance to scoop the win. Not my sort of bet, but a perfectly justifiable one if you like that sort of thing – provided you get the 16/1! 4.15 Convivial Maiden Stakes (Class 2) (2yo) 7f DOSWELL This is always a very good maiden race for two year olds. Although most of the top stables are represented (with the exception of the Godolphin trainers) the debutants do not scream out as being potentially exceptional. We therefore fall back on what the leading participants have demonstrated already. Doswell ran very well at Newmarket on debut when second to Godolphin’s Being There, having been arguably too far back to overhaul that one. Improvement looks assured, and John Gosden is having a good week here. I prefer that form to that of Paul Cole’s Capital Flight, who ran third, beaten some way to Dee Ex Bee at Goodwood. 4/1 Doswell (Bet365, BetVictor) looks a fairish price to me for this one. 4.50 Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+) 7f No Bet Seven of the fifteen runners rated within 2 lbs of each other, and 9 within 3 lbs. No need to repeat myself! Good luck to those going on Friday. Enjoy the Nunthorpe – it’s an absolute cracker.
I see them no bets are getting bigger Orsen I'm doing O.K. had 3 bets I usually would have only had 2, 1per day, good win day 1 Crackman and Ulysses in a double, day 2, I had 2 bets may be because I could not make my mind up which one to back and was winning, 2 e/w bets Firmament and Ouja, Firmament came in 3rd, well over a ton up in 2 days, 100 is going straight into mi holiday fund.
Great insight as alway orse.Great day yesterday and managed to dig out threaded and flaming spear so very happy.Watching Enable live was a privilege. Looking forward to Lady Aurelia
Yes - Enable was simply brilliant, Y! Got me thinking about the three best performances I've been on course to see. 3rd Bosra Sham winning the Prince of Wales Stakes, Royal Ascot, June 1997. 2nd Sprinter Sacre winning the Schloer Chase, Cheltenham, November 2015. 1st Frankel winning the Juddmonte International, York 2012. Great times!
Between two to bet in first race , speedo boy and londinium. Have bet st Michael in the two miler , and laugh a minute in the 4-15 maiden race . Good luck to all punting today
Only just seen this, UTC. Yep - I make no apologies for making any race a 'no bet' race. As the old cliché goes, avoiding a loser is as good as backing an even money winner! Last year I played in 905 races and found the winner of 290 of them (32%). That was enough to return me a profit of 6% on my total stakes invested. I simply couldn't have done that if I had played in races which didn't appear to me to contain a value bet. By my count there are 25 races across the four days at York. 12 of these are handicaps, most of which are fully subscribed with the maximum field. Another one (today's Group 3 at 3.00) closely resembles one of these fiercely competitive handicaps. I don't mind backing 2,3 or even 4 in such races if I believe that the chance of one of my group winning (taking them combined) is greater than the odds imply. But in the races I've scored as 'no bet' I can't even suggest a group of two or more runners which would give a value return when taking the odds of any one of them winning. Hope that makes sense! Do I pull my horns in a little if results aren't going well? You bet! That scenario suggests that the conditions of the meeting (going, fields, etc) are not conducive to the winners being found by my means of selection. But overall, the approach has to be the scientific one I've suggested above. I'm confident of my overall strike rate, but that may not be represented in one day's (or week or month's) selections. What matters is my tally at the end of the year!
As I said Connor, I'd be with Game Starter given his impressive win at Newmarket last time. He is also unexposed. But he is up in class and up in the weights in a more competitive race. He should enjoy the longer trip though. Al Neksh seems popular with the pundits, but has one or two questions to answer to my mind.
