Have you changed your mind ?

Oh and no, I haven’t changed my mind.

 

Having just hit my thirties I'm fully aware how long this is going to last, but I think it's a necessary move that we'd have to make at some point. Dave's opt-out from ever closer union was a sham, how long could we keep opting out without essentially essentially becoming an isolated island off the coast of Europe, which is what everybody is saying is going to happen now? More likely we'd not exercise the opt-out because each gradual loss of sovereignty would be far outweighed by the economic benefits, and so we'd become inextricably linked to the EU. Being out of that club, with people like Tusk and Juncker running it, is the best thing for us.

I say twenty years because I hope that Britain can reshape its economy. I'm not suggesting the pits are going to reopen, and Grimsby will be full of trawlers, but Japan managed to do it and nobody reckons they should become part of China just because they're an island nation with an economic superpower on the doorstep. Indeed the nature of technology today means there is more opportunity than ever for our country to redefine itself. The emerging markets are all outside of the EU, it's up to us to build on the opportunity. Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic, but I really do think that's what this is, an opportunity.

 

Not just that, he also hoped to nullify UKIP as an electoral threat in the future - something he by and large succeeded in short-term. However, if the process trundles on well beyond March 2019, or we end up having a new referendum, then they'll no doubt mobilise again.

 

If we possessed the Japanese work ethic and ability to organise ourselves, you could have been right. For far too long we've not really produced anything of note in large enough volumes for it to have a major impact on our economy. Instead we've just become a channel through which some of the world's dirtiest money is laundered. Theoretically this could be an opportunity in the right hands, but in reality I reckon we'll just end up seeing more dirty money flowing in and not much else, especially with the pound being so weak right now. I would also point out as an aside, that Japan has been chronically underperforming an an economy for many years now, having been more than matched in the innovation stakes by South Korea, and now China.

 

I just don't think Davis is up to negotiating a deal, all he does is laugh when asked a question on Brexit and May just comes out with the same rhetoric saying the same words every time when asked robot like.
I honestly think they think we are all numb skulls
Whatever they come up with in this divorce it should be voted on not in parliament but by the people.
I voted to stay and I have not seen or heard anything to change my mind, in fact, I've become more convinced that staying in the E.U. is best especially for my children and grandchildren.

 

Stay and still would. If the negotiations so far hadn't been such an embarrassing shambles I might have held a bit of optimism for the future, but hey ho...

 

I didn't vote in the referendum. I wanted to vote to Remain, but due to working in Telford on the day and the media predictions of a Remain victory I didn't make the 4-5 hour round trip to cast my vote. That is something I regret now and would certainly make the trip now - even if my single vote had no major difference on the outcome. I am European, I have always been European and will always be European.

The position of Japan is probably a good indicator of the future of the UK. By GDP, it is double the size of the UK and it is struggling to grow in comparison to its much-larger near neighbour and competition from established (South Korea and Taiwan) and upcoming countries in the region (Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, etc). It also has high debt, but a better motivated and respectful workforce and high reliance on technology.

I've posted about this elsewhere, but we are in a time of significant change in the workplace. Many of the jobs that people have done for the last half century are now on their last days. Within the next decade we could lose millions of jobs in industries that will be replaced by automation and outsourcing - driving, manufacture, call centres, checkouts, etc. could all be gone within that time frame. We also have an aging population and need significant immigration just to keep paying their pensions and other benefits, but could soon find outselves with very few jobs that actually need people to do them. Maybe Universal Income is the answer, but no political party seems to want to push for it at the moment.

Many of the problems that people identified in the country as a reason to vote out are caused by our own UK government, and we have just given them carte blanche to continue pushing through the policies that are causing misery. According to a recent paper in the BMJ, more UK citizens have now died due to government cuts in the last 7 years (120,000) than were killed by enemy action in WWI (17,000) and WW2 (67,000) combined. Even the most ardent EUphobes on the left of the political spectrum can't want that!

The leading Brexiteers in the government seem determined to push through the most insane, No Deal, crash out Brexit that will make things even worse. This will drive out companies and jobs just to ensure that they comply with laws and these jobs will never come back into the country. They also seem to be disorganized, incompetent and cannot agree on the position that they want to take. They are also seemingly ignoring the problems that are coming out of the woodwork or trying to kick them down the road. Unfortunately for them, the EU is pretty set on what we can and cannot have, have much better negotiators and it can only end in tears for the UK.

If it takes 20 years to get over Brexit, then that is the entirety of my working life. My daughter is 17, and it is her most productive years. I have posted before that I am looking to get out once she finishes this year at Sixth form, and I see no reason to change that plan at the moment. In fact, it is probably more urgent that I do escape.

In the face of this, and increased social evolution towards larger, centralized government, Brexit is the 21st century equivalence of the Luddites. A bit of a protest, possibly delaying our integration into Europe by a few years - maybe a generation at most but we will probably have to rejoin and as a result lose out on all our rebates and parks and join the Eurozone and Shengen.

 

Agree - except IMO it will take about 5 years.
Nothing said now about the Nike tick that was talked about during the election.

 

They don’t talk about the Nike swoosh economy because it hasn’t and won’t happen.

We’ve had the dip, it’s still dipping. It’s not going to be a short dip and sustained ‘uptick’ - and never seems likely to be.

I questioned twenty years. Exactly how do you anticipate five Nudger? I really hope you’re right but I can’t imagine how you possibly could be.

 

Whilst not answering for Nudge....I'll try and find the article written by a former head of the OECD, his view was contradictory to the Remain campaign use of the OECD projections, his view was that 1 to 5 years would undoubtedly be difficult with things settling down after and 10 years should show the benefits clearly .

 

Let's face it - five years is too much. Especially if it's self inflicted. In fact, having been a victim of the last downturn, six months is too much. Can't understand why anyone would want to go through that with no definite benefits at the end of it all.

 

Generally speaking, any benefits won't be seen by us...

 

I agree with all of that unfortunately. I only used five years as that was the figure Nudger used and troff quoted him on. It's totally arbitrary. I think your gloomy forecast is more accurate - and it will all be self inflicted.

 

The problem is that the EU in its present state has no future - it is unaccountable and isn't the paradise it is made out to be. That said, we should have been at the forefront of reformation instead of bleating for years almost from the sidelines.

 

The only country in the world currently not in a trading bloc and relying entirely on WTO rules is Mauritania. Where slavery still exists.

Even one of the prominent Leave groups (Leave.HQ) is very against the "No Deal WTO Option Brexit". http://leavehq.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=128

I'll leave their conclusion for everyone to read, as published in March this year.

"One can say, unequivocally, that the UK could not survive as a trading nation by relying on the WTO Option. It would be an unmitigated disaster, and no responsible government should allow it. The option should be rejected."

 

Whilst I agree with much of what you have said, reformation is unlikely to be achievable no matter how much we would like to have been at the forefront...even the Germans who have basically funded the whole project haven't managed it in any significant way. The main problem being that those in The Commission only have the belief that ever closer union is the answer to all the problems.

 

All this 'we're doomed', 'we can't survive outside of the EU' rhetoric is really grinding my gears. People will believe what suits the side of the debate they choose to but there is equally good and compelling evidence on the other side of the argument if people are prepared to consider it with an open mind.

There was an excellent interview on LBC this morning regarding WTO rules. If it has been uploaded to their site I would urge people to listen. The same bloke also wrote this article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/19/dont-need-trade-deal-eu-wto-rules-will-suit-us-just-fine/

 

Can't read the Telegraph article past the first two paragraphs. Do you have a link to the LBC piece. I can't see it with a quick glance.