Not the Minority Report - Early Edition

Barnsley 0 Derby 2 (Martin 37, Winnall 76)


Reds: Davies, McCarthy, Pearson, Lindsay, Fryers, Williams, Hammill, Potts, McGeehan, Barnes, Bradshaw


Early pressure saw us go close with a Bradshaw header just wide on 12 minutes and a stinging drive from Barnes, cutting inside on 25. The Rams gradually gained more of a foothold in the game as Reds passes went astray and the visitors capitalised on 37 minutes as Martin rounded off a move following a quick break involving Tom Lawrence and Joe Ledley. We pressed in the second half but found midfield balls going astray, with Hammill being shown a yellow card after his frustration at being double-marked was vented in pulling back an advancing Derby full back. A through-ball from Ledley on 75 minutes saw Winnall crudely hacked down just inside the area by Lindsay. The former Oakwell striked coolly slotted home the penalty, although his celebrations were somewhat over-exaggerated, and received a hostile reception from the fans in the ESL.


All in all, the dilemma remains that the defence needs the extra protection that comes with the 4-5-1 (or officially, 4-1-4-1) system, but the lone striker, in this case Bradshaw, continues to be isolated when the inexperience of the midfield leaves them unable to make an impression on more experienced opponents. For the fifth game running, our opponents were able to weather the early storm and use their experience to bide their time and strike quickly on the break when the opportunity came. Finishing, as ever, was crucial.


Only 22 days to January!

 

I know it's a work of fiction, but that's taking it too far

 

'Wibbly wobbly Timey Wimey??' Nah!! He's not 'The Doctor', he's a very naughty boy!

 

Buongiorno, Mr Tekktyke!

 

Ciao anche a te. Come stai.

How did your predictions for the 'gee gees' work out the other day? I confess to knowing absolutely nothing about horse racing and horses except that they appear to have four legs - two at the front and two at the back, and come in a range of colours, open top, same engine size - 1HP, although performance figures, strangely, vary). You clearly have a real interest and knowledge re 'form' since I did not understand a word of what you posted .
If you are successful at predicting winners I hope that skill has not transferred to your match predictions.

 

DUPLICATE POST

 

Greetings, Mr Tekktyke.

The first horse I posted yesterday, Jukebox Jive was heavily backed in from the 15/8 price I recommended to 6/5 favourite. It made a mistake at the fourth hurdle and weakened and was beaten three out, finishing 4th of 7. A little underwhelming! But the second selection, On The Blind Side (curiously also backed from the 2/1 I recommended in to 6/5 favourite!) justified my expectations that it would stay on strongly up the Sandown hill and it duly obliged by 9 lengths, earning quotes for the Cheltenham Festival in March in the process. So 1 from 2, and a 50% profit on stakes invested.

I didn't intend to post my ramblings today, but given as we are on the subject.....

1.45 Sandown FINIAN'S OSCAR

I wasn't going to put up today, but having just read Tom Segal's (who I respect enormously) article [Racing Post 'Pricewise' column] I just have to disagree with the great man. Tom says that Brain Power will have too much speed for Finian's Oscar in this race. But is it not less than 12 months since FO scooted up this same Sandown hill to beat Capitaine 5L in the Tolworth? And the previous November, North Hill Harvey beat Brain Power 20L in receipt of only 4 lbs in the Greatwood. Yesterday's races at Sandown were run an average of 23 seconds slow per race, or 1.23 seconds slow per furlong. Will this really be such a test of speed on this stiff course?

When you look at things in that light, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that we have the wrong favourite here in Brain Power. True, he was impressive at Kempton, but that certainly is a different speed test, and his rivals made blunders. Brain Power has won 6 of his 12 rules starts, whereas only one horse has finished in front of Finian's Oscar in his 7 starts under rules, and that in the G1 Novice Chase at Punchestwon. Finian's Oscar is clearly still learning with his fences, and he had to overcome a race run at an unsuitably slow speed at Cheltenham but still had the pace left to overhaul Movewiththetimes on the run-in. He has enormous potential over fences and has a huge engine. I do have respect for North Hill Harvey, having seen him win the Arkle Trial on course at Cheltenham but providing he doesn't fluff any of the fences, I think Finian's Oscar will have too many guns for these promising young chasers here.

I wrote that opinion at 7 am this morning in another place, when Finian's Oscar was 2/1. He is still widely available at 7/4, at which there is still a bit of value in my humble opinion!

 

Wibble!

 

Right, goals on 39 and 78 minutes, rather than 37 and 76, with Vydra's interspersed just before the break. You can argue about whether Thiam was on as a striker or as one of a midfield five, because he didn't seem up with Bradshaw much. Apart from that, I think the progress of the game was pretty much as I imagined beforehand. Disappointing, and sadly predictable. Huddlestone seemed to have so much time on the ball, and was quietly effective. Martin was martin. Strong, and often in the positions to cause us worry. Our formation doesn't seem to be having much effect one way or the other at the moment. The fact is that despite the promise of earlier in the season, this group of players do not at the moment look equipped to ensure our survival in this league. Who knows where we are with the takeover. But after the brief promise of August and September we have resumed a run of form which began with last January's transfers, and will if unchecked see us relegated. It is a worry that the spirit of the team seems very lacking at the moment, and especially when compared with the Scowens, Roberts and Watkins of this world. Much work required in January!

I said Finian's Oscar would have too many guns provided he didn't fluff any of the fences. He did. But I'm afraid I also have to concede that Tom Segal was right and I was wrong. The horse couldn't live with the pace of this race, and Trainer Tizzard said afterwards that if he is to go to Cheltenham in March, it will probably be over three miles rather than two. We live and learn!

Overall, one of those days which makes the successful days (football or racing) more sweet!