Some of us need to refocus on the BIGGER picture

Of course it's hugely disappointing that we have had a recent string of defeats - but we need to keep in mind where the club is.

Last season the club sold many of the first team players and they have been replaced by players that cost much more to initially buy, than the players that were recently sold.
So in theory, given time, this current crop of players will develop into a team stronger than the previous one.

Plus of course (fingers crossed) we have the takeover on the horizon.
So for me, even if we get relegated, which I don't think we will - but even if we did - if the takeover is completed - Hecky remains in place - and the current squad develops and a few other players are added to the squad - then we have a strong base to build on and a very bright future ahead.

 

You are going to be so let down when the takeover happens. It' the model they are interested in. Buy cheap. Coach them and sell for profit.
Nothing will change.

 

Not much profit there then.
Better to try to achieve promotion and milk the premiership millions, don't you think.

 

I think what's worrying is that the squad seems to have gone backwards over the last five games or so. There doesn't seem much in the way of leadership or team spirit at the moment. When you compare that with the team that variously had Hourihane, Mawson, Roberts, Scowen, Watkins and sometimes yes - even Winnall you see that the earlier squad had many more natural leaders then this one. Seven of the Wembley team are playing at bigger Championship clubs and one is prospering in the Premier League. I find it hard at the moment to envisage many of this squad making that progression. And while it's right the squad still has plenty of time to develop and improve, outstandingly it's best members for me are Williams and Barnes, both of whom are loanees. That's not necessarily a problem - after all, look what loanees did for us in 2015/16 (Fletcher, Isgrove, Brownhill, etc). But it's also still not building for the future. I think that our playing style(s) has been found out, and is now easily counteracted by the teams who are able to spend more time in this league analysing it. My tongue-in-cheek pre-match report predicted fairly accurately how the game on Saturday was going to go (give or take three goals instead of two). So if a numpty like me can predict it, it's going to be easy for the Warnocks and Christiansens of this world. It will be harder than 2015/16 to turn this one around. Not impossible though.

 

I guess it depends how much they are prepared to lose in order to achieve that. The only interest they have in the club is a business interest, not a personal interest of a fan like PC.

I too can't see much change other then sticking to the plan to make profit for them. At the end of the day there are 23 other teams in this league wanting to go up too, some spending silly money and some receiving massive parachute payments. How much do you think they'd be prepared to lose to chase the dream before they want out (if they ever get in)?

 

I have only seen 3 of the games in our 5 game run of defeats, but for me, they tell a tale of loss of confidence, and not just the confidence of the team. I felt that the defeat by Cardiff was unfortunate. There was nothing in the game until the late rebounded clearance into our goal. The same cannot be said of the Leeds game. They pressed us and in doing so, they rendered our 4-5-1 system redundant. I thought Leeds played very well. That system relies on being able to progress up the field using short passes. And in particular, it relies upon us being able to find our wide players in space. Leeds cut off all our logical routes forward, and eventually we simply had to resort to the long ball, which was never going to work. I said in Minority Report (yes I still write it, if only for my own record, a sort of diary), Leeds have rumbled our system. I do not know what happened in the following two away games, but when we returned to Oakwell, it was with a 4-4-2 system and two defensive midfield players trying to protect our defensive back line. The idea was clearly to stay compact, to miss out midfield, and to hit the ball from back to front. The system is limited when the team has no one to win the first challenge for the long ball, but I felt the team did OK until Derby scored. After that, the system, and those players could not get us back into the game. In another tactical twist, Derby marked our left winger closely, but allowed our right winger plenty of space. The tactic meant that we struggled to find Barnes at all, but could find Potts at every opportunity. Of course, Potts is a full stop, and that is especially true when he plays out wide. It meant that they could stop our attacking intentions, because they could stop Potts. Once again, we had been rumbled.

Frankly, like yourself, I am concerned. Hecky seems to have run out of ideas and has resorted to trial and error, at home at least. The team cannot gel with constant changes to team members and systems, and yet he is clearly feeling the pressure and is less sure that he is headed in the right direction. He has inferior players, and his attempts to make a silk purse out of a sows ear are being thwarted by managers who are also clever, and who have better players at their disposal. I liked Lee Johnson because even when he was under severe pressure, he never lost focus and he never lost faith in his own ability or that the team would eventually find its feet. This is Hecky's first real test, and I hope he comes through it. January will be key to our survival chances. A botched transfer window will see us sink without trace. It will be interesting and it will be a huge challenge for our first team coach.

 

Pretty much exactly how I see it. The only hope I have is they employ a more competant hierarchy so that assets aren’t gifted to rivals on a regular basis.

 

Can't believe I'm saying this but I agree with all that and share your concerns. Excellent summary of my feelings at present.

 

Good to see a return of your analysis, Red Rain. And this raises what some will see as heretical thoughts. Hecky did a terrific job in 2015/16, and he finished what LJ started. But it was LJ's team, and prior to his departure the team had turned the corner to the extent that 6 of the previous 8 league games were won. Now Hecky has had to replicate what LJ did and build a team and it's methods from scratch. I thought he had already cracked it after the August/September games, but being realistic that was probably too soon to judge. He may still do it. Let's hope so. But look what Johnson is doing at Bristol - after a similar hiccup along the way. I'm still massively in favour of Hecky, and even to be where we are now is a real achievement. But this stage of the season is just beginning to raise a few questions about what he can realistically achieve. Grandfathertyke said to me a good while back that our natural centre of gravity has dropped to the third tier. And without some intervention now I fear that is our destiny, whether as a yoyo club or as a longer term member. This of course raises echoes of previous debates about what it is reasonable to 'invest' in the future of the club, but I won't start resurrecting all that!

 

Many seem to see us as a top 2nd tier/1st tier club. They tell me to look at Bournemouth or Burnley when I doubt what they say. Without huge investment, we can never be a 1st tier club and I just do not see any return on that investment. Most investors want a return. That is especially true if their heart is not in the club. Even if we saw another miracle, and were promoted to the top tier, there would have to be a huge further investment in order to stay there. The only possible return on that sort of investment is to sell at the top of the market. As fans, we are left hoping that the next investor is either lucky, or does not want a return. Personally, I cannot see how any investor can satisfy the inexhaustible desire of football fans for their team to be as good as it can be. Inevitably, fans eventually have to have someone to blame, someone to exercise their frustrations upon when their hopes are not fulfilled.

Thankfully, getting older gives perspective. Like Grandfather tyke, I tend to think we are batting above our average at present. The continued existence of my team is more important to me than the level it plays at. A brush with extinction does that to you. I am grateful to Mr Cryne and I believe will will miss him when he is not around. His wealth is not enough to give us a club that can compete at the top level, but it is enough to ensure that we did not drop below the third. It is a safety net rather than a trampoline.

 

What return are the owners of Bournemouth and Burnley getting?

The return they get isn’t financial as such it’s largely kudos now.

You won’t like it but a club that is happy to “exist” will cease to be eventually.

 

And what happens to Bournemouth and Burnley when their owners pass away. Are they guaranteed eternal life, just because they once had a rich owner and played with the big boys?

 

Do you think their owners are currently acting as benefactors?

 

Can you explain your question a little more as I am not sure what you are getting at.

 

Even with the "modest investment" that's been mentioned, we will still be one of the small fish in this division.

Only hope is that the "plan" is tweaked to include some experience.

 

Burnley and Bournemouth are no longer dependant on financial backing from a rich owner. They probably were to get out of the Championship but they could exist adequately on the enormous riches afforded from being in the Premiership.

I'm sure they could survive the death of an owner.

 

You are spot on Conan, which begs the question why are parachute payments still allowed ?

 

Because those with all the power and ££££££££££££ want even more ££££££££££££££££. Can't see it changing.

 

True , they would love a closed shop / executive club , but to me its stinks as they already have been given a massive pot of gold & them what fail are rewarded with even more riches

 

Bournemouth might well now be self sufficient, but reports are they are in debt to the owner of around £53.3m.

They made a profit of £3.4m in their first year in the Prem, which includes £10.7m profit on player transfers. The season they got promoted the made a loss of £39.4m. This season I'd expect their wage bill to be a lot higher with the players they've signed, so they need to hope they've increased revenue sufficiently as there doesn't look like being a transfer surplus this season.

What happens if the owner gets bored and wants his money back, or passes away? What are the terms of the loan? Repayable over so many years or repayable as and when?

If they get relegated and don't get back up before the parachute payments run out will he fund another £50m promotion push?

They could well find themselves back in the **** if that day comes - especially if they get relegated before that time.