Quick glance at last 6 or 7 seasons, it seems like anywhere between 41 to 51 points needed. 32 points with 12 games left currently. Feel like we're going to need at least 47/48 to survive and our goal difference will play a massive part in stopping up. Opinions?
I'd be surprised if 46 points wouldn't do it. That effectively means, barring a couple of very heavy defeats, we need to get 45 because of our GD. So 13 points required, 4 wins, 1 draw required IMHO.
Could see us staying up on 42 points this season. Some very poor teams at the bottom, none of which seem capable of going on a run.
4 wins / 3 draws out of our remaining 12 games will give us 47 points and I think with our goal difference that should just about see us safe. Really think Sunderland and Birmingham will struggle to pick up many more points but Burton could go on a run. IMO wins to come against Millwall (H), Notts Forest (A), Ipswich (A) and Bolton (H) with draws against Norwich (H), Bristol City (H) and Brentford (H) and defeats in all other games.
Just 12 games left now and only Bolton to play of teams at bottom.. Very tight no one is cut adrift yet. Your right goal differance could be important. 4 more wins and a couple of draws gives 46 points I would take my chances with that.
I hope we stay up as much as anybody, but we've just taken a disappointing (IMO) 4 points from a potential 9 against three of the worst teams in the division. It's a big leap from that to winning a full third of our remaining games.
According to this it's 36 and we're safe. But I can see Burton getting more than that. http://www.barnsley.vitalfootball.co.uk/article.asp?a=522879
Most of the teams at bottom have averaged one win in 4 this season, that means with 12 to go 9 points could be enough. Personally I think a team sub 40 could survive this year.
That would be unprecedented. I reckon mid 40s. Yes the teams at the bottom are all awful but you tend to get a lot of unexpected results at the latter part of the season as teams at the bottom fight for their lives and teams in the middle find a nice spot on the beach
I'd be very surprised if Sunderland and Birmingham get back out of the bottom three. Mathematically it's possible, but they look like the walking dead to me. The last slot could be anyone. I think Jose will steer us right. Burton have a fighting spirit that might help them avoid the drop. Hull and Bolton probably have just enough in the tank, so I'd put my money on Reading for the final spot (2 points in last 5 games).
At a guess, Im going to suggest 3 more wins and a handful of draws will be enough for us (44 or 45 pts!!).
My mate who supports Reading thinks they're dead certs to take the final relegation slot. Says they're an absolute shambles.
