Points Needed to Stay up Historically

16/17 - 51
15/16 - 41
14/15 - 42 (Barnsley relegated with 39)
13/14 - 44
12/13 - 55 (Flicker’s Great Escape)
11/12 - 41

On average, 46 points needed to stay up over last 6 seasons.

That means 3 wins from last 5 games.

Only stats like.

#liesdamnliesandstatistics

 

It'll be lower than 46 this time I imagine.

I'd be looking at Bolton, Forest and Leeds as our most "winnable" games - Brentford and Derby are both going for the play offs and Brentford are in great form. Though after last night's damp squib against a team on the beach, I'm more confident of us beating sides with something to play for.

 

I don't think historical points matter this year its that bad. I thought two wins against Ipswich and Bolton would have seen us safe.

 

We were relegated in 13/14 not 14/15. Season after Flicker’s escape.

That 12/13 season was barmy though, our and Peterborough’s form from January was insane. Seven more points than Peterborough got would have had them in the top ten. We stayed up by the skin of our teeth but were only 13 points outside the playoffs in the end.

This season I think low forties will survive though. That has been the trend in a lot of recent seasons, and the teams this year are very poor.

 

I think it'll be low. Although the teams above us are well clear of the bottom two, they're currently no better. None of us are.

 

For a couple of weeks I have thought 44pts and for now I am sticking with that. Subject to change though - a short while ago I thought it could be sub 40 which would have been a new record low survival marker. Although I am sure everyone above us has 1 more win in them to take them over 40pts in practise, the theoretical survival threshold could still be sub 40 if we don't muster another win.