Relegation: Too close to call?

This is the way I see it.

Reading (42 Points): I expect them to beat Sunderland on Saturday and effectively take themselves out of the scrap. I expect them to draw at Wednesday and home to Ipswich and lose at Cardiff. 47 Points

Birmingham (40 Points): I foresee them losing away at Wolves and QPR, drawing at home with Sheff Utd and losing or drawing at home to Fulham. 42/41 Points GD -29

Bolton (39 Points): I see them losing to us on Saturday and also at home to Wolves on the 21st, but winning at Burton and drawing home to Forest. 43 Points

Barnsley (37 Points): I see us beating Bolton but losing away to Leeds and Derby. I would have us drawing at Forest and also at home to Brentford, but neither game will be easy. 42 Points GD -19

Very knife-edge for me, and I think a win for Birmingham in any of their remaining games will be enough to sink us. As it stands, beating Bolton and drawing Forest and Brentford will not be easy for us. But results as above would save us by the slenderest of margins. I count Burton and Sunderland as down, but Sunderland will be a major bet for League One promotion next year. Coleman is committed to staying (see his post-match interview after the Leeds game) and they will offload many of the high earners in the Summer. With some of their youth players already being given first team action and second year parachute money from the Prem, even a modest spend will see them massively competitive in the third tier.

 

My gut feeling is that Birmingham won’t pick up another point. If that was the case any one win by us would get us through on goal difference at least. Squeaky bum time.

 

I think we'll only draw with Bolton but we'll beat Brentford. A lot could depend on whether Derby and Fulham have anything to play for on the last day. If we lose to Bolton we're in a whole world of trouble, but could still stay up due to Birmingham's horrendous run-in. I agree that a freak win for Birmingham could well spell curtains for us, unless we've beaten Bolton. If Reading lose to Sunderland they're sucked right back in. My mate who supports Reading has been convinced all season that they'll sneak down on the last day.

 

At the end of the day it’s pretty futile doing all the permutations as one unexpected win could swing it. Like Moore’s header on Tuesday it will be the width of the woodwork that decides it.

We’ve had a very poor season for various reasons and if we go down, we deserve to.

I’ll be giving them my backing right to the last breath and am starting positive - I think we can do it -

Bolton, forest and to an extent Brentford are all winnable games

Derby is tough but they could be resting players

Coyr

 

What about Heckingbottom letting us win at Leeds???

 

He’s one of us.

 

Ho ho! He's got Mick McCarthy to fend off!

 

50-50 for me. Coming through a very sticky spell and beating the blunts gave me hope, but then back down to earth on Tuesday against a supposed struggling team that had their bit of luck when we hit the bar, scored a soft goal and comfortably contained us.

There is very little in the tank and we've to scrap tooth and nail for every point because as much as we've now got more of a goal threat, we can't keep clean sheets.

 

It’s exciting being a Barnsley fan, relegation fight this year, stay up and we’ll have another next year, go down and we’ll more than likely have a play off push, beats boring mid table mediocrity that’s for sure.

 

It is too close to call. Certainly keeps it interesting. I read your assessment and nodded at each one thinking yep, that looks fair. But then I read Imer Red's assertion that Birmingham won't get another point and nodded thinking yep, that's very feasible as well. Who knows?

In theory, if we win on Saturday that could be enough to keep us up if Brum do indeed fail to pick up another point.

If we lose it though then we are potentially in a heap of ****. But even then, one win from somewhere else could rescue it. I feel more confident when I look at Brum's run in because it does look awful and it is a good shout that they won't get another point.

 

If by sone miracle we beat Leeds il enjoy reading the conspiracy theories! Will be entertaining on their message boards

 

I'm with the bloke from Stingray:
"Anything can happen in the next five games"

Potential spanner is that Wolves could already be up when they play Bolton. I recall a certain team losing 5-1 away at Oxford after securing their promotion to the Prem...

 

Lose Saturday and I can see us not picking up another point.

For the first season ever I am struggling to feel the passion any more regarding the desperation of relegation or the elation of survival. It just feels different. If I was a betting man I’d say I still think we’ll go down. The defeat to Ipswich just had such a predictability about it.

 

They are apparently without 6 first choice defenders due to injury and suspension.

They finished the defeat against Preston with two lads from their academy at centre half.

 

I had a sneaky feeling we would beat the blunts, and feel same about Leeds.

More times than not we play ok at Leeds, and with the odd exception we get what we deserve there.

 

The next 4 games are winnable and it's exciting, I can't wait for Saturday. After the season we've had with everything that's happened what an achievement it would be if we stay up, it would rank up there in BFC history. If we go down the then I think we have everything in place to challenge for the playoffs next season and we know that is exciting as well or we can moan on like Ipswich, leeds, Sunderland, Birmingham fans.

 

I don't quite feel the same as that, in terms of it ranking up there in BFC history. When we survived in the Flicker great escape season it needed a record number of points to survive and we managed it, from a position of almost no hope at Christmas. That was memorable and enjoyable.

By contrast this season we would survive only because there were 3 shitter teams than us, not because of what we achieved. You could never call 40 points an achievement - in any other season it would see you down. Its been rank and whether we survive or not the only overriding emotion I'll have come May is relief that this god awful season is over.

 

if he is still there when we play them. He is rumoured for the sack imminently.

 

Pretty similar to Keith Hills first season in charge, it was Portsmouth’s points deduction that saved us, and we were terrible. Nothing changed the season after, apart from a good couple of months, and surprise surprise nothing changed the season after that and we were eventually relegated.
So at the minute it’s catch 22 in terms of enthusiasm, we go down, meh. We stay up, meh, will probably struggle again next season UNLESS money is spent on quality and the spreadsheet is tore up. Not holding my breath though!

 

Yeah, I'm of the same mind, and if we do manage to scrape through, it's going to be very interesting to see what the new guys do for next season to try and prevent a repeat of this one.