One of those seculative ones.......

3.35 Ascot Sevenna Star (10/1 general)

No good thing this. But...… this horse alone of this field has contested group races. He actually won a Group 3 at Sandown in April and on his last two starts has been overfaced in the Derby (Group1) and the Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) at York. Today he drops back to Listed class. After only six career starts he must, in my view retain some further potential. His opponents are handicappers, albeit good ones. If you take out those two impossible tasks, he actually won two of his first four starts, and this looks a good opportunity for him to get back on track. Frankie Dettori goes to Ascot for just this one ride. He is a general 10/1. As I say, he is no good thing, but that price greatly underestimates his chance here, in my humble opinion. If the odds you take exceed the odds implied by the horse's true chance, you will win in the long term.

Should he be backed each way? This is how I look at it. With one non-runner the place terms are a quarter the odds for a first two finish. If the runners here had equal chances, then dividing the two 'places' by the five runners who must finish unplaced would give Sevenna Star around a 40% chance of being in the first two. In actual fact, I think that the bottom three runners on the card have a lot to do to finish in front of the other four. So that might take Frankie's chances of being placed to somewhere nearer 50% or maybe better. At 10/1, the place odds are 10/4, equivalent to 5/2 to be in the first two. Those odds equate to a 28.5% chance of placing, so again the place odds to my mind also represent a value bet.

*Title should of course say 'speculative'! Doh!

 

Been working well with cracksman recently, but would prefer softer ground, and as bled in past races.

 

Let's hope today's good suits him better than last time's good to firm, Ripper. No doubt that a drop or two of rain would help his chances though!

 

I fancy Waldgeist in the Arc on Sunday e/w. Enable will be tough to beat but it's only had a pipe opener at Kempton on the AW. Where as Waldgeist has been contesting group one's all season.

 

Did this horse actually finish 45 lengths behind the winner?

What happened?

 

It's actually worse than that Toby - Sevenna Star finished 45 lengths behind the sixth horse. It was more like 60 lengths behind the winner. That is no problem. It's not how the result turned out but how the odds versus the theoretical chance looked before the race was run. I'd be taking this kind of bet every day of the week because logically, you only need one or two in ten like that to come home to be in funds. It did look like a very underestimated horse, which was why I posted it on here. But hopefully the 'speculative' tag alerted people to the fact that it was no certainty.

Now, Mr Dyson. On Timeform ratings, Enable has 11 pounds in hand of the field. She returned at Kempton last time after 11 months off and beat Crystal Ocean, who is a rock solid Group 1 performer. She was within 7 lbs of her best rating at Kempton, when John Gosden described her as "about 85% fit". She looked that day as though she had filled out further and her strong galloping style looks as though it will take something special to beat her on Sunday. Waldgeist is trained by Andre Fabre, the winningmost trainer, whereas Enable is ridden by the winningmost jockey (Frankie). Waldgeist's form does not come close to Enable's as it stands, but it has to be acknowledged that M. Fabre is a master trainer when it comes to the Arc. William Haggas's Sea Of Class has to be respected too, although she has to make a big extra leap in form to match Enable's standard. I can quite see that a best price of 11/10 for Enable may make little appeal in a field like this. (5/1 ante post is a different proposition.) I'd not be taking her on though - unless you're going for the place money. We shall see. I was wrong today, and may be again!

 

My interest in Sevenna Star arises from the bloke in the Daily Express picking it out as his nap today, which matched your own assessment.

To explain the distance, did the jockey or the horse just give up after a while?

 

I tend to think it was the going Toby, as Ripper rightly referred to. I'd hoped Sevenna would get away with it, but Frankie gave up quite early in the straight when it was clear that the horse was not going to be winning. The losing distance was always going to be exaggerated thereafter as Frankie spared the horse a hard race.