The Irish backstop

Selective stats. A few countries distort the whole picture. Italy growth is poor (one of the largest economies is way below UK), Germany is entering recession.

Why! oh why! do people persist in pedalling the myth that all is rosy in the Eurozone?

 

Possibly because things are so sh*te here?

 

The Irish Mirror does not come to the same conclusion.
The articles below suggest that its a very high risk strategy from Leo Varadkar to appear tough on the British in order to stem the tide of Sinn Fein eating into his vote in time for the next elections .

''Leo’s calculation is that a bash-the-Brits approach is having a short-term positive effect on his ratings in the polls.''

''Sometimes I feel the Taoiseach and Tanaiste are acting like the Backstop and Robin of Fine Gael in their manoeuvres to defend the national interest in the teeth of a potentially disastrous hard Brexit.
Are they right? Well, contrast their dogmatic approach with Bertie Ahern, one of the key architects of the Good Friday Agreement.
Last November, he said: “So you’re left down with one alternative, to make technology work in most cases and to throw a blind eye to those areas that can’t come in within technology”.
Now Bertie, as we know, has form with “the blind eye” but you get the drift.
He was clearly displaying a willingness to take a flexible approach to defend the national interest and that is to move heaven and earth to avoid a hard Brexit at all costs.
More interestingly, what would be happening if Enda Kenny was still Taoiseach?
Now I had many problems with the former Fine Gael leader but nobody could take away from him his masterful handling of European issues, the art of finding a fudge. This is an essential component in dealing with such a tricky issue as the border which boils down to driving a square peg into a round hole. Enda was a pragmatist and certainly not hung up by any fixed ideological position.
Both men had enormous political experience to draw on and had a clear understanding of how critical our relationship with the UK is.
Now another factor that might be playing into the equation is Leo’s calculation that a bash-the-Brits approach is having a short-term positive effect on his ratings in the polls.
If this is the case, it is extremely short-sighted and he should be wary of a serious backlash if it is perceived he has increased the likelihood of a hard Brexit.What, however, is in no doubt is his cosying up to Sinn Fein has hardened his approach to the British. Personally speaking I find all of this deeply unsettling.
Like so many I have many relatives living in the UK and more specifically two of my children and six grandchildren. We have painstakingly made so much progress on Anglo-Irish relations in recent years and it just breaks my heart to see it going backwards.
It is good to see the EU backing Ireland but the Taoiseach has a duty to help find a solution and sell it to our European partners?
The British voted to leave. That is regrettable, but in the circumstances we must do our best to defend our national interest.
Imagination and taking the long view is essential. I get the feeling the leader of Fianna Fail gets it. Varadkar and Coveney will be in deep trouble if the nation comes to the same conclusion.''

 

I suppose it's all relative. However, Greece and france are beset by serious rioting, youth unemployment in the southern eurozone is at 50 percent, Hungary and Austria erecting walls that trump would be proud of, Hungary just passed a law making overtime compulsory allowing firms to defer payment for three years, Italy just been told by the EU to rip up its anti_austerity budget.....but the one that scares me, the rise of AFD in Germany. Fook knows it's not perfect here but I'm staying put thanks

 

I'm not sure people and economists do,TT. There has been a consensus for a couple of years that there would be a Global slowdown after nearly a decade of growth. This I believe is due to a slowing of the Chinese growtth and demands for their products, from countries like ours whose own economy has slowed. Brazil and Mexico's economies have fallen back after a period of expansion. Trump's isolationist economic policies are now having a negative effect in the US, where Import tariffs are affecting businesses. Global economies are cyclical and affected by Wars and political events. What worries me as a old timer,is that the global economy relies on Trade agreements between large geographical areas. Which is exactly the opposite of what Brexiteers have been proposing. Our economy is based mainly services and intellectual.property, not manufacturing and production. We are not in a strong negotiating position, as Trump has discovered, the rest of the world makes all the things we don't but need.

 

You can read similar biased things in the English right wing media too

 

The 27 countries have 2 options : risk the integrity of the single market or risk the consequences of no deal. They have rightly concluded in the long run they are better keeping their single market intact. Simple really

 

Sorry, but this is one of the biggest loads of ******** I've read for a long time. It has been discredited by the Author of the Lisbon treaty, trade experts, international lawyers and pretty much anyone that has actually read the Lisbon Treaty.

 

Yes, the great WTO rules that are the saviour of the UK on trade (anyone quoting GATT Article 24 is talking ********, and WTO article 24 relates to undeveloped countries, so even more ********) don't cover services anything like they do with goods. We have a massive surplus in services to the EU, which is severely restricted without FoM and CU/SM. WTO members can also add any tariffs onto services they want (no MFN for services), so the EU could add restrictive tariffs onto UK service providers or even just say "No" - its not like they are going to object to the big service companies moving roles into the EU from out of the UK.

 

Possibly. But anyone visiting Barnsley town centre these days would have to be blind not to see the problems on our doorstep.

 

Problems on our doorstep inflicted by an incompetant clusterfuck of a vicious, uncaring, self serving government.

 

Exactly. But presumably the EU must be to blame. Presumably.

 

Why do people insist on pedalling the myth that Euro countries are on their knees.

 

Some of that is not correct, or at least disputed according to The Irish Times.

Just to add the background from another article ( which I can't just lay my hands on)
In 2012 The EU commissioned Smart Borders 2 project, to solve the border issue between the EU and Norway...managed by the head of Swedish Customs, later Director of The World Customs Organisation, Lars Karlssen. Smart Borders2 apparently passed approval by the EU ( in 2014) but the acceptance was that it needed modification to suit the Irish Border question . Karlssen gave evidence to a Commons select Cttee that he could put the electronic customs solution together within a 2 yr time frame...apparently it was rejected by Leo Varadkar, who then incredibly instructed Irish Customs to stop any contingency planning.


''The Irish Government has a responsibility not to be complacent or to surrender a negotiating advantage. Unlike a sea border there is a real risk of violence at a hard border, which makes it trite to throw the “de-dramatisation” cliche back at Varadkar, tempting though that might be. But the Taoiseach could deconstruct the possibility of violence. He could be clear, for example, that Brexit may affect the Belfast Agreement but does not breach it, and that nobody envisages new passport controls, road closures or routine queues for motorists under any circumstances – all widespread public concerns from both a practical and security perspective.
Worst-case scenario.
The worst-case scenario for a hard Brexit set out by Ireland’s Revenue Commissioners – before Varadkar ordered them to stop planning for it – was of a dozen official crossings with Customs posts set 10 to 20 miles back, plus cameras and Customs officers with mobile equipment to enforce the remaining 200 crossings. A small percentage of commercial vehicles would be stopped, a smaller percentage again physically inspected and no other traffic would be delayed or disrupted.
The EU is quite likely to compromise on the backstop when push comes to shove
The Taoiseach has been well within his rights to rule this unacceptable, to refuse to hand London a negotiating advantage by planning for it, and to warn that even such limited infrastructure would create a bonanza of terrorist targets, putting Customs officers and commercial drivers in mortal danger.
The very strength of that warning could have facilitated reassurance on wider public concerns without weakening the Irish Government’s position. Instead, Dublin has presented a binary “backstop or disaster” picture in which the fears of people along the Border have too often functioned as another useful prop.

Customs union.
Obviously, Varadkar will be acclaimed if this works and delivers a fully open border, or better yet keeps the whole UK effectively inside the customs union and single market.
The price of that success has clearly been calculated as short-term damage to North-South and east-west relations, as well as jangled nerves and heightened tensions within Northern Ireland. This is a normal aspect of political negotiations, including in Northern Ireland, where every Stormont crisis involves years of divisive argument followed by sudden professions of peace and partnership.
Is all the short-term damage this time proportionate, however, and is Varadkar the person to gloss over it afterwards? Has it been necessary for him to leave huge swatches of the unionist population convinced Dublin is on manoeuvres for Irish unity? How will that tin ear serve the Taoiseach once he needs to work with the Conservatives, the DUP and Sinn Féin to put Stormont and Anglo-Irish relations back together again?
And what if the hardball approach is not a complete success?

Everyone knows the Tories will throw the DUP under a bus when the time for compromise arrives. Varadkar has persuaded the Irish people Brussels will never do the same to them because they are EU members and the EU is defending Ireland to protect the fundamental integrity of its rules-based order.
However, the EU views the backstop as a breach of its rules and a concession to Ireland, so it is quite likely to compromise on this when push comes to shove.
The message of the Irish Government’s Brexit strategy is that all its demands will and must be met, because any inland customs infrastructure anywhere on the island of Ireland would be such a self-evident provocation and breach of the Belfast Agreement that violence would be inevitable.
Perhaps that will be enough to ensure no camera ever graces a pole on any route across the Border. But what a risk to run.

 

That misses the point...this is Ireland's own press, not the Mail or Express.

 

Suddeutsche Zeitung suggested this week that things are not as cut and dried as all that.

''So far, the EU stood behind Ireland at Brexit. But the unity of the Union is crumbling.
The signal in the direction of Dublin is clear: Ireland just does not want to believe that it would be possible to do without border checks in the event of a disorderly Brexit.
The EU wants to wait and see what happens in London until the 29th of January.

By Matthias Kolb and Alexander Mühlauer , Brussels

Solidarity also has its limits. Where exactly these are going, Leo Varadkar has to learn these days. So far, the Irish Prime Minister has been able to rely on the other EU states; they were all on the side of Dublin in the Brexit dispute. But since Varadkar has clearly stated that he has "no plans" for the possibility of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, discontent is spreading in many Member States that Varadkar is now feeling. "Ireland can not get past a hard Brexit, " says an EU diplomat. The chief spokesman for the European Commission, who answers the question as to what would happen in the case of a no-deal scenario, gets even clearer: "I think it's pretty obvious: there would be a hard line."

The signal in the direction of Dublin is clear: Ireland just does not want to believe that it would be possible to do without border checks in the event of a disorderly Brexit. But with this attitude, the EU faces a dilemma on the Irish issue. On the one hand, it must safeguard the Good Friday Agreement, which once made a secure border on the Irish island a thing of the past. On the other hand, it is important to ensure the integrity of the internal market. If Dublin refused to control the border with Northern Ireland in the event of an unregulated UK withdrawal on 29 March, the EU Commission would have to initiate infringement proceedings against Ireland. After all, smugglers would have a duty-free gate to the EU.

But what happens when there are riots or even violence due to internal border controls? Nobody wants to imagine that in Brussels, Berlin and elsewhere. Only: The danger threatens, no one can hide it. It hovers, as it were, over the stalled negotiations between Great Britain and the European Union.

The EU wants to wait and see what happens in London until the 29th of January. Then it should come to the showdown in the British lower house. And then it will probably also show whether the Brexit negotiations continue to depend on the Irish question - or not. If the UK government continues to post backstop changes, pressure on Ireland is likely to increase within the EU as well. The catch-up solution is designed to prevent border controls between Ireland and Northern Ireland. If it comes to a backstop, Northern Ireland will remain in the single market and would be treated differently from the rest of the Kingdom. According to the Brexiteers, the EU wants to get Britain into this situation - and keep it there forever.

Prime Minister Theresa May had therefore repeatedly tried to limit the backstop time. But the EU does not want to get involved, because for Ireland, the catch-up solution is a kind of peace insurance, so that there is no secure border on the Irish island. If this position changes, the proposal would have to come from Ireland, according to Brussels.
But it does not look like that afterwards.

How complicated the situation is, shows up on Wednesday at the appearance of EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier before the Economic and Social Committee in Brussels. Respecting the "fragile peace" on the Irish island has always been a priority for the EU-27, he says, sending a clear message to Dublin: "The border with Ireland is the border to all our countries." All EU external borders "from Finland to Greece" would be closely monitored to protect businesses and citizens and to prevent, for example, the import of animal diseases.
The EU is obliged to do so, he says, meaning: Dear Irish, there is no room for maneuver.

 

4. Brexit is a gammonite phenomenon born out of europhobia and an overconsumption of tabloid induced euromyths.

hahahahaha never a truer word, etc

 

Shows how ruthless the Eu fanatics are. Causing problems in Ireland after all the past troubles there is disgusting. Tactics used by European empires of the past. And there lecturing about borders ? Let them police it then and people will cross whenever they like anyway.

 

In future years it will be referred to as the Irish back scuttle . We’re well and truly f@cked as a nation

 

I am in favour of leaving the EU, but as a believer in fair play, can I refer you to read a couple of posts I made earlier, from the Irish and German press....I don't believe the EU is playing a game of risking violence...to be fair, we decided to leave, both articles are suggesting that this logjam is not being caused by the EU per se, but by Leo Varadkar....effectively painting himself into a corner....having said that I also find it incredible that May fetched a deal for ratification that didn't include a long term get out clause...did she really believe she would get it through?